Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-02-06
As a grown up from a fellow fund manager, I adhere to the "research-based investment research that is" investment research ideas.
Independent thinking is the investment research foothold. As fund managers, our goal is to use investment in skills and investment experience for the majority of the holders to seek beyond the index of the stability of continuous positive return. In the investment, you need to grasp a lot: wonderful vision, a strong network of people resources, solid research skills, good market sense. Independent thinking is among the most critical, although it may be wasted a little time, but we may also be some long-term windfall for people ignored or neglected things. Note that, independent thinking, and can not be reduced to thinking outside the box. On this point, Buffett has long said: rebellious behavior and herd behavior as foolish. What we need is thinking, rather than vote on it. Soros this point has been wonderful analysis: "The biggest difference between me and Rogers is that the prevailing view, Jimmy is always wrong, but I think this judge may also be wrong." From their wealth compared to the previous two , we can also see the independent thinking than thinking outside the box.
From the investment philosophy, the value of investments, long-term investments, focused investment, reverse investment is to seek long-term sustainability in the market excess return the key is how we are pursuing investment philosophy.
Value investing The most important is that at a lower price, the highest potential value to buy things, while the so-called potential value because it is normal for businessmen willing to pay to own the entire enterprise costs. In short, is to buy five gross to 1 yuan.
Value Investing: From the business perspective of business stock, the stock represents the underlying businesses, rather than just a symbol. We can analyze the potential value of the company: Mr. Market, the market is not always effective, price and value often there is a huge difference; margin of safety to give you a buffer space. On the one hand, we assess the value of the company that may occur when a certain margin of error, this is either the capacity or the perspective that we are biased, or the environment has changed; the other hand, the price to the value of the regression is to take time.
Long-term investment: the stock market in the short term is a voting machine over the long term is a weighing machine. The future is unpredictable, but there are some experience can be used to analyze the future trends, which is why we must promote the concept of long-term value, and because the probability of success is relatively large. From the mathematical-statistical point of view, we can invest for the long-term Monte Carlo simulation to analyze, and concluded: As time shortened, diminishing the possibility of making money. One thing to note is that long-term investment needs of selected investments. Time is an excellent business friends, but poor corporate enemies. In the stock market to create real wealth, and only through long-term holders of the great business, year after year, to participate effectively achieved their success.
Focus on investment: about their favorite things, we must re-injection, dare to take risks, the only way to win the excess returns. Focus is very important, I would rather devote all concentrated in a few a few stocks, but holding too concentrated, there is likely to run into a temporary problem, so very much hope that investors can use five-year long-term vision to see us. To have TB before HIV infection of the Fund's performance, we must rely on two things, namely, "capital preservation" and "hit a home run." Margin of safety principle will give us the first element --- "capital preservation." The concentration of investment is to provide us with the second element --- hit a home run.
Reverse investment: to think independently under the guidance of reverse investment. Pay attention to is none other than the probability of investment, we believe that prices will continue to rise, does not mean that this view is wrong, or just right. However, the turning point in the market, the consensus is usually wrong --- always peaked when you look odd, when you look at the empty bottomed out.
The most active stock market this year, those who do not follow the pricing strategy of value investing, behavioral finance law is the basis for its strategy, such as the trend continued the law. Does the market peaked, we need to pay close attention to liquidity, without having to care index, valuation, rumors, regulation and so on. The movements of foreign exchange investment company most worthy of attention, it ease the excess liquidity will have a better effect.
A large number of high-quality companies still worth investing in; shares after the reform, the overall market and asset injection will be an eternal theme, but quite a mixed bag, we insist on a high certainty of the overall investment in listed companies do not participate in their own do not understand the story. Based on the above number of judgments, in the second half, focusing on the following types of shares: the low valuation of steel, coal, chemical, banking and other high-quality blue-chip stocks; certainty of the overall high-listed stocks; markets tend to prefer to chase the uncertainty a very high short-listed as a whole rumor shares, rather than investing in those who have been identified at the end or the first half of 2008 the overall stock market, this market preferences often result in excellent investment opportunities. We are concerned about the appreciation of yuan subject shares and increase the structure of banks, real estate, and investment in resource stocks.
(Bauhinia Pan coastal Fund Fund Manager)
