Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-07-08
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: This column that the abolition of interest tax, QDII, and even thorough investigation of foreign funds on the market did not affect the substantive bad, not cooling market, the main policy tool. The key factors that determine market direction is the policy of the main funding for the Game - on the depth of irregularities in the main against the possibility of withholding funds Gate of Life.
This column that the abolition of interest tax, QDII, and even thorough investigation of foreign funds on the market did not affect the substantive bad, not cooling market, the main policy tool. The key factors that determine market direction is the policy of the main funding for the Game - on the depth of irregularities in the main against the possibility of withholding funds Gate of Life.
First, most of the bad policies have little impact
Although in recent days on rumors of many types of bad policy. However, fundamentally speaking, these policies are not in the main market funds and would not cause too much impact.
1, interest rates and the abolition of interest tax
According to experts, the abolition of interest tax equivalent to 76.5 basis points hike. In other words, this is equivalent to an interest-rate hikes. However, interest rates are very limited impact on the market, and even rate-hike cycle is often accompanied by the bull market cycle, in parallel, so interest rates merely psychological expectations of small and medium investors are slightly affected, but little impact on mainstream funds.
2, QDII, foreign exchange investment management company
QDII expansion of both the size and the formation of foreign exchange investment management company, is to divert domestic funds to invest abroad, in order to provide more investment channels for domestic investors.
However, we believe that the role of this regulation is relatively limited. Capital is often a result of fame and fortune, and offers a variety of investment channels to a certain extent, even though it can ease the situation of excess liquidity, but it will not alter the reality of rapid growth in the domestic stock market, which is the main funding for the purposes of this is the most tempting.
3, thorough investigation of foreign hot money entering the stock market
Hu Xiaolian Administration of Foreign Exchange has recently stressed that the focus of monitoring short-term speculative capital inflows, strengthen cross-border capital, particularly short-term capital flows monitoring and management, according to law there is no actual transaction amount of background and false export transactions of foreign exchange inflows to investigate, the recent focus on foreign exchange management tasks.
While this influx of hot money on the curb outside the territory of a certain role. However, this column stressed that the small scale of foreign capital is not currently affecting the market direction and decisions of the main force, so the move is not much impact on the market.
4, modify the rules of the market delivery, plus tax!
Is now generally widely rumored that regulators may modify the stock delivery rules (changed to T +1 from the current T +3), thus inhibiting the situation of excessive short-term speculation. In addition, stamp duty may also be further enhanced.
This column believes that these initiatives impact on the market stage is large, especially the revised delivery system. However, in view of its significant impact, regulators should be used with caution, especially in the heat of a marginal decrease of the market, its introduction will also be between the two.
Second, the key policy and market games - the investigation of the violation will withhold funds Gate of the mainstream
We have stressed that the policy really determine the market trend is a mainstream market, a large financial implications, these instruments do not have such policy control conditions, but this does not mean that policy has totally at a loss.
Today, there is a message particularly noteworthy, GF Securities is the former president of Dong-qing on June 22 (last Friday) on suspicion of "huge amount of property for his crimes" was taken away by the police. However, the GF Securities said the "not heard" the news.
Although this information has not been fully substantiated, but widely distributed to the president, apparently has been involved in illegal speculation widely distributed among the backdoor events. Lenovo Hangxiao Steel event handling of the attitude of offenders shows that management's right to combat the severity of violations bubbling. Can be said that the highest level has been very difficult to tolerate the current market, the main financial irregularities speculation continued against the policy line, the main funds have continued to take the initiative to the consequences of the policy game, often policy has become increasingly harsh and sharp.
Although this administrative regulation and control measures has been much criticized, but it is also likely that the current reality of conditions (the Chinese stock market system is still extremely immature), with the best practical results-based approach. We believe that at this point if the regulators really make power, then the policy of funding for the main game will prevail. In other words, only a real threat to manipulate the market's main financial security before they can really cool down the market.
Third, regulation and control method will change
Cooling due to the previous policy, ways and means of pressure on policy issues that often lead to market crash, allowing management to bear a greater pressure of public opinion. In addition, the main funding at a crucial moment of the game to put pressure on policy factors that also contributed to the main reason the policy had to make concessions.
However, the market cooling down of the main interests of the impact of capital has been relatively small (this point in this column have discussed in previous articles), so less likely to hit the rebound efforts. In addition, the management of learning from the lessons of the failure of previous cooling, it may take a more practical and effective regulation and control.
Namely, to avoid irrational market panic, this regulation may be more skillful way, in the depth of the fight against irregularities in financial markets, based on supporting "small increase" to raise interest rates and reserve ratio, issuing renminbi bonds in particular the formation of foreign exchange investment Company, a large number of red-chip stock return distribution, stock futures launch of the system and so on, gradually changing the investors overly optimistic expectations.
The main intention of the management may be, let the market in 2008 there have been large risks, so before that to let the market digest unfavorable factors in advance!
