Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-08-23
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: In the cooling policy, the case of repeated failures, investors overly optimistic expectations of irrational psychology has been further strengthened. The policy on how funds for the mainstream game, how to cool down the irrational investors is to determine the market trends are expected to be a key factor.
Repeated failure of the policy in the cooling case, overly optimistic investors expect the irrational psychology has been further strengthened. The policy on how funds for the mainstream game, how to cool down the irrational investors is to determine the market trends are expected to be a key factor.
First, investors do not generally optimistic about the expected
Household savings will hit six-year low, consumption will hit a record low, will purchase a record low ... ... the second quarter of this year, residents rushed into the stock market will hit a record high. The central bank survey released today shows that more options to buy shares and funds, the proportion of inhabitants reached 40.2% for the first time exceed the savings deposits as an investment choice, a "stock" Big Brother phenomenon has become common practice.
This is the central bank to cities and towns across the country carried out in 50 cities and towns depositors of this survey, 20,000 questionnaires were usable. Another from the accounts, 20 per day million or more to return to the situation, the enthusiasm of small investors enter the market apparently has not been May 30 crash impact.
Based on the current situation as reflected in objective data that is, most investors expected the stock market generally more optimistic.
2, cooling repeated failure is expected to strengthen an important reason for investor optimism
Policy cooling allow investors optimistic about the repeated failure is an important reason why expectations have been strengthened.
Beginning this year, the market has experienced a total of three times due to control measures which led to the rapid decline of the market, respectively, began January 30, February 27 and May 30. However, several dropped from view of the circumstances, the most significant is also the May 30 index fell less than about 20%, and often in the short term index that is dramatic return to their previous highs. In which the market experienced a 1.30 and 2.27 crash after crash, and even continued to rise.
In addition, the policy side is also repeated investor optimism is expected to continue to strengthen the main factor. We can see that, whether it is plunged 1.30, 2.27, or 5.30 crash after crash, often a number of senior officials come out to moderate Fu City of speech, at the same time are generally accompanied by a new fund with a relatively dense distribution of funds from the public opinion and strengthen the market支持.
In the policy itself repeated and contradictory statements, the temperature often failure is to be expected to continue to strengthen investor optimism the important reasons. And this is expected to strengthen the results is, every time the market fell sharply, are likely to be seen as a bargain-hunting investors Jiancang opportunity.
Third, policy and market is expected to intensify Game
Indeed, as described in previous articles in this section, policies, frequently face cooling failure, may stimulate a high degree of tight management of nervous collapse. As the stock market overall interests are threatened, the management has repeatedly hit new highs on the current index may be more difficult for the patient, their regulation by major changes could occur and ultimately to change the unfavorable situation in control.
Most investors repeatedly to lower the temperature of the "deceived", and policy and market risk may be more careless or turn a blind eye to the current regulation. If the policy initiatives properly, then this may also repeat the repeated failure of the cooling, "disastrous," usher in a more fierce and often cooling after a fierce mad cow.
In our view, the policy aspect on the one hand you can change the market so that investors do not earn the expected loss, mainly for the speculative excess may be the subject of shares to crack down on, so that part of no value and risks of restructuring has been the false colors. This will allow small investors to realize that, even in a bull market, is also a latent structural risks, and thus return to rational investment. On the other hand is the only rise and not fall to change the index of the psychological expected to change their behavior due to policy-stricken, resulting in management often is caused by pressure drop began, supporting the city to stimulate the Meng Niu the end of his fans slap in the face Zuoyoukaigong situation.
Finally, the response to how to prevent improper policy led to irrational market crash caused by passive situation should be fully prepared. Stabilize the market mentality, eliminating most investors do not earn a loss, or the non-rise or fall simple logic, the policy faced major problems.
4, for mainstream funding is the key game
More importantly, the change of policy by mainstream financial kidnapped face an unfavorable situation.
From the previous situation, the previous fall by the individual funds can not simply escape caused panic, but also includes some of the major capital market pressure to bring its advantages to the use of indices may be directly to the policy of pressure, while the utilitarian policy itself is held hostage will often make the management of trade-off. How to change this part of the mainstream funds in the policy game advantage, how to coordinate departmental interests, and clear the channel due to the management of their own policy interests of the different obstacles and decrees, decrees is also a poor situation to pay attention to the problem.
Finally, the attitude of the policy is very easy to create Manniu stimulate the market out of the situation quickly beef (because long-term investors to market is widely expected to rise, it will buy more than they sold less, resulting in de facto Man Niu Niu change quickly). From this point of view, policy should not directly to the market up or down as the main operating target, but rather to strengthen the fight against speculative behavior, so that investors are fully aware of market risk, advocating rational investment-oriented.
