Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-05-01
Domestic digital TV operators and gradually formed a stable profit model, digital TV commercial service will bring customers long-term to enhance ARPU value, the value of cable television networks will be re-evaluated the next three years, we are optimistic about the industry's stock investment opportunities.
Access to large-scale growth stage in support of national policy and local cable operator's efforts, the national digital television as a whole a marked acceleration in the process of conversion. SARFT focus on the promotion of Qingdao, Foshan, Hangzhou and other places of experience, and a joint Ministry of Finance, State Administration of Taxation, Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued a supporting preferential policies (including tax incentives, investment and financing policy, the opening up of the charging policy and opening up , etc.), the domestic digital television business to enter the promotion of the real turning point.
July 11, 2005, SARFT issued "on the pilot units to promote the overall conversion of digital cable television a number of observations (for trial implementation)" notice. We believe that the greatest impetus came from two key policy innovation: to allow private capital to enter public service fees and commercial charges and separation.
According to the plan around the launch (for example, Hangzhou, currently 28 million digital subscribers, planned by the end of the development of 50-60 million, Qingdao to by the end of the development of 600,000), to digital TV subscribers by the end of the country will certainly more than 3 million over last year's 106 million an increase of 2 times. As the author of the report in 2003, predicted in 2005, will become a watershed in the development of digital TV industry. Digital TV subscribers in 2006 will likely cross the 10 million mark, into the large-scale growth stage.
Profit model beginning of another country to promote the latest digital television business practice has shown that digital TV operators industry, formed a profit the following three modes:
Basic tariff price increases. From the price increases throughout the program to see, the basic increase 10-12 yuan per month mostly due to digital TV set-top boxes, mostly donated, so this part of the additional revenue will be able to cover the amortization of the cost of set-top box (about 600-700 per set-top boxes yuan, according to 5-year amortization, equivalent to a monthly 10-11.6 million).
With "Speed mode," to improve the timing of the actual contribution rate, carrier revenues will grow 40%. The industry is generally estimated that the national cable television subscribers to the actual contribution rate is less than 70%. Reason for this state of affairs is the era of analog TV, cable operators, telecom operators did not like the user a true "end to end" management, but access to digital TV era, the entire digital television system will truly become a "side to the end "can manage the system.
Development of value-added services (data services, government information technology, pay TV, high-definition TV ... ...). Of particular note is: Is this part of the business will no longer be public service, its tariffs are no longer by the government pricing, price adjustments do not need to open hearings on the price, but solely by market pricing.
Provincial TV channels landing fee price increases. Hangzhou Cable launched last year, the first foreign satellite television channels in Hangzhou Province, floor to invite tenders. Tender results, each provincial TV channels in Hangzhou, landing fee of 280 yuan / year. Hangzhou, the total number of cable television subscribers 1.5 million, of which urban cable television subscribers, 60 million, the equivalent of 1 million per landing fee of 1.867 million yuan. Beijing Gehua provinces so far received channel landing fee of about 7000-8000 million, about 30 provincial TV sets fall, the average charges for each channel is about 230-260 million, while the number of users in Beijing to 2.85 million, In accordance with the standards of Hangzhou, the average cost of each channel landing in Beijing should be 5.3 million yuan. Therefore, if Beijing or Shanghai and other big cities to take tender, and landing fees will be based on at least doubling the current.
Internet TV 2-3 years, not a threat can not be denied, IPTV has many advantages, we are also optimistic about its future prospects for, but not now. We believe that the next 2-3 years, IPTV digital television is difficult to pose a substantial threat, but in the future development of China's IPTV digital television is not the existence of an alternative.
First of all, IPTV technology, large-scale commercial conditions are not ripe. Up to now, the domestic IPTV has not any industry standard or recommended by the introduction of a mandatory standard, technical and operational specifications are not perfect. At present, the two fixed network operators are conducting a pilot IPTV has expanded to the country's 23 cities. However, throughout the construction of technical standards, not the same network platform, making equipment and terminal manufacturers have to offer a number of solutions and end-products, which greatly increased the cost of network construction operators and device manufacturers, R & D and production costs.
Second, the radio and television sector IPTV license restrictions, the contents of strict supervision. The international community has set off a boom IPTV, telecom operators, broadband applications will be considered as a new "gold mine." But in China, it is a sensitive area, touched the restricted area of telecommunications and broadcasting convergence. This is mainly due to domestic business of telecommunications and broadcasting regulatory policies are completely different. SARFT has the power to issue IPTV licenses in their own hands and are free to carry out strict supervision of the relevant business. The IPTV is based on the open Internet business, personalized, interactive, open its important feature, while the content of security, legitimacy is in a secondary position, which with the current state policy of regulating the media industry is contrary to . Thus, the domestic IPTV to launch radio and television is difficult to have more differentiated video content.
Thirdly, IPTV costs are high, profit model is not yet clear. Telecom operators to develop IPTV services, we must transform the existing network, while the transformation is much higher than the cost of cable TV digitalization.
Revaluation of commercial opportunities for the domestic cable television charges brought by the public welfare services due to restrictions on fees and charges have long been hovering around 10-18 per hour, the national average of about 12 yuan. Cable TV service is the public interest of foreign business combines, value-added service charges far more than the basic service charges. China Digital TV to gradually turn to commercial operation, on the one hand will give users more new experiences and services, on the other hand will give operators revenue growth opportunities.
We judge the next three to five years, the domestic cable television subscribers ARPU value will be 12 yuan to upgrade to 30 yuan. The value of China's cable TV network will be re-valuation opportunities.
Specific to the company's point of view, we believe that: Due to Gehua stable growth performance into the fast lane, and may further increase in the next year after prices of basic charge, we have raised the company's rating from "cautiously recommended-A" tune Gao is "strongly recommended-A". Because of radio and television networks have entered the share reform program, and acquisition of additional assets, the majority shareholder made a matter of commitment to improve its rating to "strongly recommend-A", the proposed reform of the company stock after the group-buying auction. Pearl on the G, Bory communication, CITIC Guoan give "cautious recommendation-A" rating.
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