Dealer to determine the approximate positions Money Tips

Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-12-23

Stock price up or down, to a certain extent, the distribution of chips by the Unit as well as the size of the amount of funds involved in the decision: the use of the greater amount of money, chips the more concentrated, the trend will be more stable, less susceptible to be influenced by broader market; disposable The smaller amount of money, betting slips scattered in the hands of the majority of retail stock price movements difficult to fold up easily, it is difficult as large, how to estimate the severity of the dealer position then? How to determine chip is centralized or decentralized, mainly through the following methods to determine:

1, according to the length of the bottom of the cycle, to judge.

Stocks on the bottom of the cycle, obviously, the author's experience is to the bottom of the cycle at the bottom of the daily trading volume multiplied by the running time, you can roughly estimate the amount of the dealer positions, making positions = the bottom of the cycle, × initiative to buy volume (ignoring retail bid amount). The bottom of the cycle, the longer the greater the amount of the dealer position; the initiative to buy the larger the amount of the banker Xihuo more. Therefore, if investors see the bottom of the long-term sideways stocks, usually silently absorbed funds. Therefore, the main force in order to reduce the cost of purchasing a high throw off short-term bargain-hunting and has been cleaned; but there is still a small line of money the Minister to intervene. Therefore, the main period sucked cargo. Best, reached only about 1/3-1/2 the total volume. So, ignore the initiative of individual investors bid to buy the amount of the amount of the total volume can be settled × 1 / 3 or total turnover × 1 / 2. For example, there is a 50 million in mid-cap stocks, in the course of a long-term decline and entered sideways. Recent period has seen the phenomenon of active transactions, after a trend chart analysis to determine the lowest pre-accumulation of the starting date for the main force, and from this starting date until the 250-day moving average near the 90 trading days have been accumulated volume 5500 million, the amount of initiative to buy shares for the 1700 or 2700 or so, then we come to estimate the main period of accumulation between the number of shares for 1700-2700, but the analysis is best at a low position as a basis points, so as not to subject to its misleading.

2, according to stages of turnover judgments.

Occurs in the low turnover of active, high turnover, while the share price rose less (or set standards for the stage less than 50%, preferably less than 30%) of stocks, usually making Xihuo. Greater turnover here, the more adequate the main accumulation, investors can focus on "price" being behind the "quantity" of individual stocks. Author's experience is that turnover rate of 50% as the base, each through the multiple stages, such as 2,3,4 and so on, stock prices entered a new phase, but also indicates that the dealer position changes, the use of turnover calculation formula for making positions : Stock Liu Tongpan × (Stock turnover period of time - the same period in broader market turnover); calculation divided by three, the real significance of this formula is the main funding to go beyond broad market turnover of bid amount (or an average purchase volume) the amount of funds involved is usually the foresight generally applies to long-term decline of popular stocks. Therefore, once the main force of the popular stocks continued to recruit, we can relatively easily measured out of the hands of the main positions. The time normally taken with 60-120 trading days is appropriate. Because a band makers Jiancang cycle is usually 55 days. For example: A stock Liutong Pan for 8000 shares in mid-2003 low in early 2004, a stock for 90 consecutive trading days of the turnover rate of 250% compared with the broader market turnover of 160%, which can be calculated: ( a) 80 million × (250% -160%) = 7200 million; 7200 million / 3 = 2400 shares. Therefore, making the actual number may be holding between 2,400 million. Is also the main means that bookmakers may be in positions Liu Tongpan about 30%, on that analysis, we can draw the main force involved in shorter periods of time, stock prices are still ups and downs.

3, according to tape finishing period to analyze the performance of the unit. Some individual stocks Xihuo period is not obvious, or Laozhuang intraday comeback, or the suction side of the dealer pull side, or down the process of constantly Xihuo is difficult to clearly demarcated Xihuo period. These stocks making positions through the period in order to judge the performance, Shanshangufen (600,884) down by mid-2003 Zhu Bo, Xi Huo obvious ,5-June period of the shock behavior clearly belongs to the dealer 7-September broader market adjustment, while the Unit continue to adjust, marriage and the amount of shrinkage is more obvious, making involvement of the deep, clear quilt; the recent broad market adjustments, the unit strength up, look at the unit up to 228 million shares outstanding, for the main regulation of large-cap stocks such as ease , Chi Chou volume is evident.

4, from the time-trends and to determine the single transaction. If the time-trend very coherent, single volume is small, usually making positions larger chips are usually higher degree of concentration, such as the ST East pot (600,786) pre-time-trend and down, volatility is not continuous, transactions are empty turnover time interval length, sometimes over the last few minutes before closing one or two pen, 54 million of Liu Tongpan sometimes daily turnover is only a few hundred hands, which is typical of chips are the main take-all (positions at 60%), Change completely determined by in the main wishes of the broader market, its impact is negligible.

5, the amount of departure from ad valorem to judge. If the transaction did not increase the process of amplification, to maintain a balanced state, and even the amount of departure from the price of stocks, chips are usually concentrated in the hands of the main force, such as the sea is Pharmaceutical (600,267) from last year, an increase since June, with shares rising turnover volume has continued to decline, stock prices hit a new high since listing, nor be able to significantly enlarge the amount, time trends can last as long as the release of a small amount of the stock pushed higher chip lock of good, steady push for the main positions, there is no accumulation period, usually 60% or more positions.

6, allotment diluted quickly Tian Quan. February 4 for the ex 000401 Jidong Cement allotment, the day of closing is not abnormal, February 27 placements available, the Unit was able to buck the trend, the display chip has been fully locked, the main positions heavier. Then the unit upside continuous heavy volume.

7, through the per capita holdings of shareholders with large holdings to determine the number of dealer positions. I experience in 2400 the per capita holding about ten shareholders holding more than 5% of total Liutong Pan, you can determine the main initial positions, such as the 600585 Conch Cement Company in June 2003, the adoption of semi-annual analysis, the per capita holdings in 5000 Multi-Unit, the largest shareholder with about 8%, you can determine the main emphasis on teaching positions.