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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: The excess liquidity and stock market bubbles is a dilemma that led to the management of the mad cow main reason for the relatively tolerant, while the policy aspect of the intervention will determine the future market direction. With the influx of hot money in the capital structure and further exacerbate instability in the market, introduction of stock index futures market, adding more variables.
Excess liquidity and stock market bubbles is a dilemma that led to the management of the mad cow main reason for the relatively tolerant, while the policy aspect of the intervention will determine the future market direction. With the influx of hot money in the capital structure and further exacerbate instability in the market, introduction of stock index futures market, adding more variables.
1, the management of excess liquidity and stock market bubbles is a dilemma
Obviously, the current excess liquidity in the context of the continuous influx of funds is to promote the stock price soaring stock market is an important factor in whether funding is to maintain a steady increase in the main guarantor of the bull market.
We believe that the management team face a very difficult situation, one is excess liquidity, need to constantly raise interest rates or margin rate of recovery of mobility, but this will obviously greatly increase the burden on the banking system. So, continue to guide the funds into the stock market is a reasonable policy choice; On the other hand is driven by money, the stock market further and further as high as the Pretty Horses, the greater the risk the more the plot. Management of the problem of excess liquidity and stock market bubble faces a dilemma.
In fact due to excess liquidity reasons, the management of the stock market madness can be said is a relatively high tolerance, at least not as right as to the attitude of the real estate market, a clear suppression. The market also even to share the stock market bubble of rational argument, popular stocks also largely to the spectacular event to be added to the point. However, this anomaly is long-term sustainability, the management will not be a long period of silence?
This column that was first proposed in the State Department report, saying to stabilize the stock market is worth our attention. Although the short term will not be issued a temporary stock market's strict regulation of specific policies, but further and further management of the high-getting faster and faster the market can not be ignored.
In general, the policy interventions will face is to determine the future market trends a key variable. On management's current silence on the stock market, not necessarily on behalf of their wit's end.
Second, the market increasingly volatile capital structure
Pushed up the market is currently the main financial force that? We continue to believe that one issue of a new fund; 2 is the influx of a large number of idle capital in the stock market.
First of all, a large number of public offer funds Jiancang after the establishment of behavior is pushing a major factor in the current market, one of 150 billion open-end fund on the market, quite a lot of upward momentum. Worth remembering that the public offer funds are basically expressed in public, the high valuation expressed concern about the risks. One side is a large number of their portfolios ahead of the side is slightly bearish. This fully reflects the current public offering the fund has no choice.
Also a lot of hot money in the fund at the same time pushing the continuous influx of high market, then the bull market to an ever-higher pay rise Tianchai role. At the same time because of the substantial influx of hot money, so that the current market capital structure is not stable. In other words, the apparent prosperity of the context of risk continue to accumulate as soon as signs of trouble, highly speculative hot money will lead to sharp fluctuations in the market.
3, the index futures introduction of additional variables
The introduction of index futures, the market will be what kind of impact, it should be said that the stock market is facing a relatively more complex variables. There are two points here, namely, the specific launch time, the impact of uncertainty and uncertainty.
1, the index futures introduction of time
In fact, we think the introduction of index futures already have the hardware conditions. However, its introduction of the time is still delayed considerably.
As the article in this section has been emphasized, taking into account factors such as the maintenance of market stability, the management in choosing the timing of introduction of index futures would be more cautious. In other words, the market madness may be delayed introduction of index futures time.
2, introduction of index futures
We have stressed that the introduction of index futures major impact on the market is to provide a mechanism for binary game, that is not necessarily a bad one-way or multi-benefit, but may be exacerbated market volatility. Judging from the current situation, if the recent introduction of index futures, does not rule out the direct result of a high stage produced.
The introduction of index futures, if more time pushed back, the more will be like a whirlpool, and constantly and the market introduction of index futures on various expectations, which will impact on the market allowed to introduce more complex, leading to a more market trends Mo test. In fact, the index futures at different point and launched the specific impact is different and even opposite.
Fourth, non-tradable shares on the market impact of lifting the embargo
Articles in this section has emphasized, a large number of non-tradable shares will be lifted to promote a major shareholder PLAY promotes the interests of the most important. However, this process of PLAY will be the long-term, complex, and during the process is whether the twists and turns. In other words, in the long run, we can fully optimistic about lifting the ban against the background of non-tradable shares,
This is the same as issuing new shares in the market rapidly to the good times, non-tradable shares tend to lift the embargo only boiling soup, such as Young, will further stimulate the market upward expansion of space; but once the market worsened, and a large number of non-tradable shares reduction is very easy to market continues to drive down the red, resulting in rapid market callback.
