Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-03-12
The principle of moving average have told us that stock prices too far away from the average, it will again move closer to the average, which is the so-called long period of division co-principle. But in the end how long it will move closer to him? Is there a figure to it for clues? This requires the use of a deviation indicator of the rate of this technology.
Deviation from the rate of the English name of BIAS, referred to as Y values. It is based on the same day moving average as a benchmark, the actual price and the gap between the moving average, known as the deviation from the degree level with a deviation from the percentage obtained by dividing the moving average is the deviation from the rate. In other words, a deviation rate of the day, said the actual prices (or index) and the gap between the average price, which also can be expressed in numbers moving average price line and the distance of the. And the moving average - corresponding to a deviation in the short-term rates have long divided. We use a deviation from the general rate on the 10th on the grounds that the moving average line on the 10th to use more (Note: Using the moving average number of days sampled, a deviation from the corresponding rate should be used as a), the formula is as follows (in index, for example):
Rate = 10, a deviation index of -10 on the day moving average / 10-day moving average × 100%
If the sampling days of change, such as 5, 25, according to the above formula, change the number you need can be.
Shanghai stock market speculation in the atmosphere due to doctrinal and, from time to time crash has occurred, the stock price if too far away from the average at any time would turn around, so the use of deviation from the rate analyzing, after all, a simple and more correct approach.
Deviation from the rate of plus or minus the points, the share price above the moving average will certainly be a positive deviation from the rate, otherwise a negative deviation from the rate of. With the stock price fluctuations deviate from the rate will be from positive to negative from negative to positive ground loop. When the boom or a plunge when the absolute value of deviation from the rate will be larger, when the zoom to a certain extent, a deviation from the rate comes into play.
A deviation from the value of the rate of exactly how the stock will reach the U-turn then? Due to differences in the shares of the stock market situation is different and therefore there is no conclusion. Hong Kong's technical analysts believe that, when is a deviation from the rate of value reached 13% - 15%, the share price is soaring, and then the stock should be sold, while the negative deviation from the rate of -13 - 15% should be multiplied by a low Inhalation Unit. Taiwan investors have argued that a negative deviation from the 10% rate of -4.5, is to buy time, a time when up to 5% should be sold; 25, up to -7% of the negative deviation from the buying opportunity comes up to 8% should be sold; 73 days up to a negative deviation from -11% to be bought, the positive deviation from 14% to be sold. The Shanghai stock market in general tend to Hong Kong to send, but the Shanghai stock market twists and turns is amazing, and sometimes the absolute deviation from the rate of up to 30%, still high, or are even dropped by another, up to but also has another. But having said that, such a Change, after all, have a degree.
In short, a deviation from the rate of value judgments can be determined based on personal experience, of course, have to have a long-term statistical information based. With such a tool at hand to cope with twists and turns on a lot easier.
In addition, be pointed out that, in the competition for equity, the deviation from the rate normally would lose its meaning. Readers who are interested in, then you can count on when Baoan acquisition delay, the extension of the deviation from the rates, though not small, but never see stock prices fall in a bull market in stocks, if a dividend, they too happen.
