Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-01-02
Abstract: According to statistics, the Fund in 2005 1 to 4 quarter changes in the Fund's overall holdings for the first quarter high, the second and third quarter, and gradually reduced, a gradual increase in the fourth quarter, the fund this change in position and fund managers on China's macro-economic knowledge and is closely related to the overall investment ideas. Our fund managers in 2005 through more investment analysis, to deduce a possible investment in the fund in 2006 thinking.
Fund investment ideas in 2005 a quarter of context In 2005 a quarter, fund managers generally have macro-economic slowdown rather than recession, is expected to belong to the majority of fund managers on macroeconomic trends in the economic growth cycle to determine the nature of change did not happen. This is the 2005 one quarter of the fund as a whole the root causes of the higher positions. Fund managers generally agreed that the macro-control in 2004 after investors judged the economy to cyclical industry, there have been considerable differences in the consumer industry, the high valuations and relatively moderate growth in the performance of investors hovering ability, in the Growth can not resist the pricing environment is uncertain, investment leads the industry in particular, lack of investment leads to more investment to lose a strong point of landing. However, most fund managers believe that the macro-control pairs of dominant enterprises have limited impact, while the advantages of the enterprise part of the enterprise in addition to "cyclical" characteristic, but also both the characteristics of growth, its causes can be summarized as, due to industry concentration degree (pricing power, the transfer of costs) the relationship between the competitive advantages of companies already have to extend the competition from products to the capital of the competition in the heavy and chemical industrialization, large cycle, and enjoy the international division of labor, continued demand growth and the growing economies of scale to achieve sustained profitability and stability, so that an upward trend continues much longer, the ultimate embodiment of "growth" of the second feature.
As the engine driving economic growth is different from the cycle of growth experience in mature markets are not fully applicable to the Chinese capital market, of course, "Urbanization, heavy industrialization and consumption upgrade" the theme of trade leads from a large span of time-series argument has its relative necessity, but from the perspective of the annual cycle of the industry leads to small is an undisputed fact that the investment industry has been demonstrated to differentiate sub-sub-sectors of the focus of investment, which is a reduction of investment fund managers continue to edge enterprise logic.
Fund investment ideas in 2005 2,3-quarter sequence of Two quarter-tradable share reform since the end of the curtain rose, the market valuation of the original basis for a significant change in the decision-making, fund managers in the "stock change" in the context of mainstream investment ideas yet clear, it is the fund in 2005 2,3-quarter of the fund as a whole positions gradually reduce the underlying causes.
Most fund managers believe that the "stock change" background, China's economy have taken place within the health system, "Guotuiminjin" in evolution. As for the macroeconomic situation, the majority of fund managers are also more pessimistic, think that the future investment, consumption and exports have shown a high probability of cooling, the credit expansion due to capital constraints and the transformation of state-owned commercial banks, shares the impact of such factors as limited, so in the "Guotuiminjin" the process of empowerment of the "entrepreneur" could significantly shrink the size of economic activity, macroeconomic as a whole, the prospects showing a slowdown trend. Upstream and downstream prices, "God into the earth," the pattern will be sustained, and the lower year on year CPI rise this year will be significantly lower. As investment and consumption demand or show a more stable growth potential, macro-economic slowdown does not mean a hard landing. It was expected economic growth in 2005 will reach 8.8% in 2006 is expected to remain at 8% above the trend in the macroeconomic slowdown, corporate profitability declined.
Fund managers optimistic about the advantages of a quarter of enterprises have started to change the view that the existence of the domestic part of the advantages of a high growth companies, but this alone can not be the reason for the high valuation. When judged by enterprise value, the investment rate of return should be an important consideration. Domestic defensive plate plate relative valuation of raw materials are at a very high premium range, while the international comparison, China's defensive types of trades that did not show superior characteristics, on the contrary domestic raw material industry in the greater comparative advantage in international comparisons. Defense and the cycle of two types of plates will be more reflected a certain degree of wheel movement characteristics, the fund managers believe that the second half of 2005 the industry tends to be more dynamic investment strategy should be adjusted, and actively grasp the wheeled context, and implement a flexible defense strategy that the cycle of raw materials prices fall will be more extended and moderate the process of the next two years is only a limited degree of price drop would remain above the average cycle, moving the balance of the current round of investment in the short-term focus should be more inclined to bulk raw materials represented by the value of Plate-type cycle.
2,3-quarter of the fund managers think that we should grasp the two major industry investment theme. The first theme, from the numerous policy changes to look for investment opportunities; theme 2 is to search for energy and raw materials prices fall after the sectors that benefit a total of 2 1 [2]
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