Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-05-05
Valuation: The stock market implies a premium of 30% of the potential, long-term strategic investment opportunity has come In 2006, three major factors that enhance the A-share market value of more than 30%. Real economic growth is bound to drive the performance of listed companies to enhance appreciation of the RMB billion yuan-denominated securities to enhance the value of assets, while the split share structure reform is bound to enhance the flow of the value of A shares. According to the above analysis, in 2006 to maintain steady and rapid growth in the macroeconomic, GDP will achieve 8.9% growth rate; yuan appreciation this year, based on the appreciation will continue to maintain a steady pace, next year is expected to continue to rise 5%; 70% of the share reform of listed yet companies by an average of 10:3 on the price of stock reform will enhance the market value of about 20%. The three factors together, the stock market next year, with at least 30% of the upside potential.
A stock market value is not only reflected in the next year, the additional potential upside, but also reflects the value of the investment has been grossly underestimated.
According to terms of performance of listed companies from January to September, China's main stock market index price-earnings ratio, such as: SSE 50, SSE 180, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 a weighted average price-earnings ratio of 13 times, not only lower than the United States, Japan, more than 20 times the level of valuation more than 60%, but is lower than in emerging markets such as Hong Kong, Singapore and other markets the level of 14-15 times earnings, if less-tradable share reform has brought a premium, China's A-share market valuation is only the level of developed countries, the valuation half, is also lower than the level of emerging-market valuation of 30% --- 50%.
A high dividend rate underscores the investment value of A shares. Currently, A-share market's average dividend of about 2.6% dividend yield, not only higher than the one-year yuan deposit rate 2.25%, 1.84% are also much higher than the United States, Japan, 0.8-1% of the dividend yield, therefore, from the current return on capital investment point of view, A-share market has been an absolute investment value. Listed companies from the situation, the dividend rate is higher than time deposit rates of up to 382, higher than 5% of up to 100 or more, a number of high-quality companies such as Baosteel, Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes, Neusoft shares, Nanning Sugar, etc. 35 The company dividend yield is as high as 8%, and up to 16%, only higher than the one-year time deposits, and far higher than government bonds, corporate bonds of investment returns, in the full circulation pattern, its stock price is bound to rise gradually to a reasonable valuation level.
Quality enterprises to list shares, "a net-breaking" phenomenon appeared in large numbers, underlines the value of M & A-share market. According to the statistics by the end of November, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock price has fallen below 190 in net assets, of which 62 from January to September earnings per share of 0.1 yuan. "Breaking the net" phenomenon indicates that China's market valuation system is a problem, also shows that the current market value of the underestimation of the phenomenon of extremely serious.
The increasingly close to the full circulation today, some M & A business plan is entirely possible in the secondary market to buy the underlying shares of listed companies to achieve M & A purposes. As the stock price lower than the net assets acquired secondary market will not only significantly reduces the acquisition costs and acquisition of available excess earnings. It is understood that some entities have been acquired for the purpose of the company started in the secondary market to buy shares of a listed company goals.
Although the Shanghai Composite Index has always been the nightmare of 1000 the hearts of lingering in the investment, despite the confidence of the market remains extremely fragile.
However, as the engine of world economic development of China's economy, the rapid growth of the real economy will gradually be reflected in the increasingly mature A-share market, China's capital market valuation levels not far below the level of earnings in emerging market countries, nor can the long-term the standard deviation from the mature market valuation.
From Japan's development experience to see ,1960-1970, Japan's rapid economic growth of the golden age of 10 years on average GDP growth rate of 10.4%, but since the beginning of 1961, due to the stock market is immature, short-term growth is too fast issuance of new shares, the market a strong speculative atmosphere, resulting in Japan's stock market began its decline into the 4-year-long period of decline up to 33%. With the Japanese securities industry and gradually move toward marketization and internationalization, as well as Japan's strong economic growth, Japan's stock market since 1965 finally falling out of the channel, out of a new round of long-term bull market.
Hong Kong's economy and stock market development does have a certain reference value. From 1962 -1,973, the Hong Kong GDP growth of 9.2% average annual growth rate continued into the early 80s. 70 In the early investors in a very fanaticism, stock index rose from the end of 1971 storm in March 1972, up 420%. Because a number of reasons, in March 1973 after the sudden stock market crash, there for nearly five years of sluggish trend, with sustained rapid economic growth is entirely contrary. In the meantime, the Hong Kong stock market regulators paying attention to institutional building, the market system improved. Hong Kong stock market in 1978, was finally out for as long as three years of major bull market in the third quarter of 1981, the Hang Seng Index hit a record high of 1810 points.
Currently, China's economy and stock market in general is equivalent to 60 years in Japan, Hong Kong 70's level. Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets after a long adjustment, the current bear market has entered the end, with the stock market system, the gradual elimination of obstacles, a large number of blue-chip groups, highlighting the investment value of China's securities market will eventually usher in a new stage of development.
Fundamentals: macroeconomic for the stock market has created a favorable environment for value creation and value enhancement a total of 3 1 [2] [3]
Hot Articles Latest articles in December Investment Strategy: a strategic intervention stocks are undervalued relative to investment in 2006 days CITIC Construction Investment Investment Strategy Report of the 2006 Investment Strategy Report: CBBC turning point in the daily restricted reference materials listed companies to invest in a daily report of actual Denver real strategy for large organizations Tomorrow
* Get to the root end of the year to avoid underperformance shares to meet the actual performance of the daily wave report on the daily run-off Gonglue -12 Denver 8-ting on real earnings: Looking for a 20% chance of profit institutions: chunill snipers in December 07 Warrants Plate Operation Strategy
