Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-07-24
Source: Beijing in the first place
With the goal to tap short-term speculation, multi-party once again withstood the pressure to sell today, after Shenzhen and Shanghai are rapidly bottom all the way up, Hu Zhi-point in 1600 to obtain an effective support, the end, a small Yangxian reported income, and closing of the August hit a new high, indicating short-term is expected to challenge to the 30-day moving average, but the volume and the absence of effective amplification, Shanghai stock market value to less than 140 billion yuan, and Shen Chengzhi oscillating trend is maintained within a narrow range, so the market in general the direction is still not clear, short-term hot spots to start a certain extent, the power of multi-party support, so the market will remain cabinets running pattern.
Focus 1: Does that mean a new closing high of the arrival of Quotes?
After entering in August, Hu Zhi consecutive receive strong support around 1550 points, resulting in three rally (August 7, 14, 21), and each time upside to Qian Liu integer mark, but only This is a successful firm, breaking more than average, but also created a recent closing high of cabinet also formed a technical breakthrough, then it mean that a new round of increase in Quotes of the kingdom come? In our view, from the current market environment and the general background analysis, but also unable to reach such a conclusion, in the contraction, expansion, etc., under pressure to maintain such a strong market, the main reason is that the rise in the first half possess inertia, as well as the bull market strengthen the psychological, the overall sentiment is still around long on the market, shareholders are reluctant sellers, holding cash at hand then the bargain-hunting set, resulting in the medium-term adjustment for operation mode will show a space of time, rather than continuing the pattern of decline, but from time to on the analysis, the early rising time span of nearly a year to maintain, while the recent adjustment of only two months, the adjustment time is not too full, especially in the capital will not aggressively approach the scale of the environment, the new 1 Quotes investors still need to wait patiently.
Focus 2: Hot frequent ability to stimulate long the popularity?
Real Estate section from the early beginning of the hot rebound from time to time as a whole, the recent strength of colored blocks as a whole, largely to maintain market sentiment, stable long on atmosphere, bank stocks hit record highs G China Merchants Bank is also a strong a certain extent, reflects the partial funding of operation, and today shares the overall strength of the stock of capital on the other hand illustrates the action, we believe that technology stocks, shares the active part of the stock of short-term funds committed, not the size of behavior of funds, so it can only maintain the disconnection of the popular, but not long on the strength of excitation, only the mainstream of the emergence of a very obvious hot spots before they can effectively promote the Quotes of the development, but from the recent non-ferrous, banks, are likely to to become operational target analysis of the size of funds, there is not the probability of overall strength, such as nonferrous metals, since its peak in mid-May, after an overwhelming majority of individual stocks fell more than 40%, and most stocks are subject to a six-month line, support, rally driving force very strong, this is the biggest reason for the recent strength, but do not have the re-emergence of boom conditions, the medium-term oscillations remained the main tone, while the plate is obviously banking stocks are stocks practices, with only G Merchants Bank outstanding performance, the performance of other stocks are very in general, indicating that stocks are still the focus of funding bodies, we believe that multi-market outlook greatest hope is that banks plate, if the bank shares as a whole can emerge strong, then the index's performance is not bad.
Focus 3: Incremental capital's ability to resist the pressure of expansion?
The recent dramatic drop in volume to become a major focus of the market, but also rising Su Liang, down the phenomenon of heavy volume, indicating that wait and see atmosphere is still relatively strong, although do not have the power continued to decline, but it can not be rebound to expand space, for this phenomenon , we can financially and increasing the capacity of analysis, synthesis, consider the IPO, refinancing, small non-lifting of the ban three-part funding needs, during the year A-share market demand for funds roughly 1,500 billion, which is currently 150 million yuan float market capitalization of 10%, which prior period adjustments is a major factor, however, studies and estimates from the first release during the year public offering funds, insurance funds, as well as institutions such as QFII to the market a total of 160 billion yuan to bring about incremental funding, so the market is not lack of funds, and incremental funding can withstand the pressure of expansion, which is not much room for broader market the main reason for a downward adjustment, but the scale of expansion and incremental funding can be seen, the strength of the two sides is almost the same, and only until the adjustment to an end, effects of large-scale money appear to stimulate additional incremental funding approach may only be able to Quotes to push.
