Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-01-19
Abstract: Dong Chu period how investors should be prepared to meet next year's spring?
China Merchants Fund that although the fourth quarter of this year, the stock market there are still some uncertain factors, but with the macro-economic situation has further uncertainty, the market economy and corporate profits will continue to amend the pessimistic view of the stock market would be out of a repeated shocks Round up a good market, long-term funds in the fourth quarter is an ideal time for a strategic Jiancang.
Macro-economic growth rate will continue to maintain a certain Into the second half of 2005, since the second quarter of last year, since the implementation of the role of macro-control policies began to appear, the economic slowdown, but the recently announced some of the key leading indicators such as the emergence of new loans, a certain degree of rebound, the new start of commercial buildings in an area of growth to accelerate investment in fixed assets will remain high, the money market interest rates are at historic lows, we believe that a substantial slowdown in the economy is unlikely, if the next stage of the macro-economic control properly, the economy should be able to maintain steady growth.
Inventories of finished products of enterprises began to fall, losses of industrial enterprises began to fall, profits rise. If the current trend can be maintained, the economy in order to maintain a certain speed the development of more likely.
Five factors that determine the trend the market outlook Affecting the fourth quarter, the stock market trend following main factors: on the macro-economy and corporate earnings growth is expected to judgments, the stock market's overall valuation levels, the stock market and financial policy factor supply and demand situation.
Investment growth has stabilized, the economy showed a narrowing trend in volatility
We believe that China's economic growth driven by investment in the short term the situation will not change, and therefore the volatility of the economy depends largely on the volatility of investment. At present, China's economy is in the population, urbanization and heavy chemical industry in the process of investment growth in population, urbanization provides a strong endogenous demand. However, due to resource bottlenecks do not support the rapid economic growth, the timely macro-control in 2004 mainly to alleviate bottlenecks in the industry to focus on, promote resource conservation-based economy and sustainable development strategy, which also aimed at "smoothing" economic fluctuations.
We believe that the volatility of the current round of economic adjustment will not be too large because: First, endogenous investment demand remains strong, China's average of 20 million rural urbanization, no doubt about the investment growth momentum will remain a long-term endogenous maintenance, while the Beijing Olympics, railway investment, 3G network investment, and investment will be for investment growth in the short term to inject new impetus. Therefore, we are not worried about the growth of investment will drop significantly, on the contrary, we are more worried about the influx of hot money after the yuan revaluation and local rebound in investment may bring a new round of investment overheating, resulting in new macro-control pressure; Second, the government continued forward to the exchange rate, interest rates, represented by various economic elements of market-oriented reforms, macro-control measures by administrative means, the gradual approach to market-oriented transformation, but also will contribute to the smooth functioning of the economy. Click "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" the spirit, the government will promote change in the pattern of economic growth, promote conservation and environmentally friendly society, would be self-innovation as structural adjustment and economic growth mode core. We believe that the Government will invest in the growth rate of the camera control and the growth mode, so that economy is unlikely to repeat the last round of investment in overheated condition.
We believe that the current economic boom in two runs up the middle of the cycle adjustment period, the current adjustment phase for the new brewing a boom cycle, growth momentum. Beginning in 2006, with the Meidianyouyun bottlenecks such as the release of industrial capacity, economic growth will be driven by the endogenous re-release of the health of the economy will enter a new phase of growth. A total of 5 1 [2] [3] [4] [5]
