Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-04-05
Source: Eastern Wisdom
Last week, New York, oil prices fell below 60 U.S. dollars / barrel mark, compared with the previous high point and 78.40 U.S. dollars fell more than 23%. In the past 9 weeks, 8 weeks, crude oil prices falling, the trend of the crude oil market is not doing more and more optimistic. OPEC Secretary-General, who is running for the post of OPEC's former acting secretary general Adnan �Syahabudin has even said that international oil prices may be in the middle of next year of around 40 dollars a barrel.
Markets are well supplied, the U.S. economy may decline as factors contributing to an important reason for lower oil prices, while the northern hemisphere once again faced with the expected mild winter reduced demand for oil. In the northern hemisphere winter heating oil consumption as the United States and Europe the arrival of winter has been a substantial increase in winter over the years to launch the initiative of the oil market up, but last week the U.S. Climate Prediction Center released the report, due to the Pacific El Niño weakened, the month of the year 10-12 The United States will be higher than normal temperatures in the western region. The possibility of a relatively warm winter this year, a larger decline in oil demand is expected to Zaicuo oil.
Market sentiment generally agreed that, unless the regional situation in the dramatic tension, the oil price is difficult to return to the previous level of above 70 U.S. dollars. The drop in crude oil prices completely different from the previous calendar year, the seasonal decline, but on soaring prices lower after the pattern. After the boom, once the trend of the formation of a callback, it will be facing a slump for quite some time low after the operation, most likely stabilize the price in the market is expected to run under. Rising oil prices led to rising costs many companies, a substantial decline in profitability, the current lower oil prices will inevitably have a significant impact on related industries. Linked to the domestic refined oil prices are expected to drop, A-share market is worth noting the types of stocks.
A direct benefit from the fall in oil prices in the industry, enterprise
Lower oil prices has brought some industries and enterprises in production costs, operating expenses dropped drastically gross margin has improved, thereby increasing its net profit margin, but the face of falling oil prices to benefit all sectors, or a slightly different way.
1 to crude oil or its derivatives as raw material processing enterprises. Directly reduce the drop in oil prices of crude oil as raw material for petrochemical enterprises of the raw material costs, such corporate profits are expected to increase substantially. With crude oil processing derivatives closely related to the midstream and downstream businesses such as plastics, chemical fiber, rubber and other industries are also expected to result directly benefit.
2, a drastic drop in business operating costs. Airlines aviation kerosene accounted for about 40% of the cost of crude oil price drops will directly and significantly reduce its operating costs, according to estimates, aviation kerosene prices fell 10 percent for each will be thickened Airlines net profit of about 6%. The use of fuel oil shipping companies will also benefit from falling oil prices. Fuel accounted for 30% of the cost of water companies about every drop of fuel oil 10%, thickening of the water company's net profit of about 2%. Listed companies are expected to air shipping to losses or increase revenue, market participants are particularly concerned about the plates.
3, complementary goods prices benefit indirectly from the industry. The most typical of these listed companies than the automotive industry. Extremely high oil prices affected the sales of motor vehicles, especially gas-guzzling vehicles in the market competition is completely at a disadvantage. Fall in oil prices eased to some extent, the use of cost constraints on car buying, auto industry boom-degree increase.
Second, high oil prices are positively associated with the plate
1, the substitution effect of petroleum products with a plate. Period of soaring oil prices, the market is most hot, get mad pursuit of money, a section that is of new energy-related stocks, which blocks the largest individual stock rose more than 400%. The new energy sector has been able to hit, because the prices of petroleum and related products to a certain extent, the other raw materials or energy to produce petrochemical products in an alternative economy, new energy as a green energy in a variety of alternative energy in more center stage, greatly stimulated the market room for imagination. At present, the oil price situation is already reversed, the demand for alternative energy sources the urgency as before, but the actual application of the concept of higher cost of new energy is not being sought after by the market further, the investment risk has increased. Other substitution effect with certain industries, such as calcium carbide, acetylene, etc. Production of the development may also be subject to certain inhibition.
2, with crude oil price linkage between the plate
For a long time, oil prices and closely aligned with the effects of gold existed. High oil prices will make the global inflation, but gold as a hedge against inflation of investment goods will be greatly promoted by buying higher. Lower oil prices, gold and other industrial metals prices to discourage small, non-ferrous metal plates to prevent the continued upward after the consolidation. Sharp rise in non-ferrous metal plates a few months after the start of the adjustments, but the level of the current valuation does not have the advantage, subject to the non-ferrous metal prices have fallen, is expected to be difficult afternoon's big rally.
On the whole, in the context of falling oil prices, aviation and shipping class businesses to benefit from the most direct and immediate, plastics, chemical fiber and other industries will also be turning the tide to enhance performance, new energy and non-ferrous metal plate will need to avoid. Benefit from the advantages of the plate with the valuation may be to focus on large capitalization stocks.
