Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-05-02
Although the performance of listed companies in 2006 to face down the pressure, but because of valuation and the system of these two "non-economic factors" will gradually exceed the performance of the pressure, while a number of major "accidental" event about to occur, growth companies Valuation Bubbles and value the company's valuation of the amendment is expected to co-exist. Also close to our recreation time the stock market, but do not forget the good scar pain.
No denying the fact that entertainment is indeed a good thing. China's stock market only a short 10 years of history, we should not forget that in the not too distant past, we have been obsessed with the creation of the valuation of the new economy bubble, we are happy, because we are in the entertainment market;, the international of the breeze gently blowing, and eventually disperse the bubbles of our own manufacture, we have lamented on the valuation of structural adjustment brought about the amendment, we are suffering, because we are in the entertainment market. Entertainment stock market and the stock market entertainment, and contrast is so strong. Perhaps this is not what we want entertainment.
Acknowledged or not to recognize the worth mentioning at the moment, the most developed when the devaluation of the U.S. entertainment community. Old America to play with that stuff is really different sets. From Idol (Idol) to the Apprenticeship (Apprentice) and then to Big Brother (Big brother), reality show everywhere. Take-ism really useful, when we gradually fatigue and even tired of the elite entertainment performances, carefully try to figure out how to play the old America, and introduced to the show a creative way of entertainment, China's reality show in 2005, reached a peak. China's stock market relative, it seems that the Chinese popular entertainment has also experienced a regression process, during which only rarely suffering.
The Super Girl linked with the Chinese stock market is indeed a bit out of date. I am interested in is the logic behind the phenomenon of super-woman. To the final selection from the sea, he served as a part of Shen Ping fans have a direct impact on the mood, from depression of the road to the singing voice and so forth. Super-woman based solely on the overall quality of the selection, or the fundamentals of super-woman study, we might be disappointed with the results. However, in fact, fans of the logic is not only a super-woman are all aspects of the performance of a simple sum of, or even embodied in a typical non-linear thinking.
Compared to our ancestors, it would be a kind of progress bar. "My Fair Lady, Marty," the fundamentals decide everything, do not see the demand factors in the value of the role of judge, or that the demand factor for an evaluation of the impact is assumed to remain unchanged. Here, the logic simple and clear, reflects a causal linear mode of thinking, that is, the traditional linear mode of thinking.
Linear mode of thinking, from the real economy to a virtual economy mechanism of action is quite certain, but a one-way feedback. However, its limitation is that the main factors affecting the stock market operation attributed to macro-economic, ignoring other factors, especially the impact of the system. With the globalization of the economy, stock market volatility does not simply reflect a country's macroeconomic changes. This leads to index changes and the relationship between economic performance tend to loose, and even depart from. From the linear thinking of the point of view, economic fluctuations, "should be" early-warning changes in the stock market. However, whether in mature markets to emerging markets or the examination of the stock market and business cycle fluctuations are not strictly correspond. Even in the United States, macroeconomic performance over the past 70 years, 1 / 3 of the time and stock market volatility is a departure from the. On emerging markets, especially in the transition economies of the study is disappointing. China's experience also reflects this point. Since 2000 alone, China's stock market and macroeconomic volatility in the relationship between the show a limited degree of correlation.
Nevertheless, I do not deny the value of the linear way of thinking. In contrast, in a long time of thinking inside the stock market will continue to be the more theoretical analysis of the basic approach. I would like to make two points: first, the stock market behavior based on expectations of macroeconomic behavior prediction is not necessarily reliable; Secondly, the linear way of thinking for empirical analysis of L-band, non-linear way of thinking for a short period of empirical analysis. Therefore, we must focus on contingency factors.
It would appear that the Chinese stock market is concerned, even though the performance in 2006 continues to face down the pressure, but due to valuation and the system of these two "non-economic factors" will gradually exceed the performance of the pressure, while some major " accidental "event about to occur, as in the 3G and digital TV as the core of the scientific and technological revolution, new from the old and so on, in the somewhat optimistic sentiment, the growth and value of the company's valuation bubble in the valuation of companies at the same time the amendment is expected to co-exist. Also close to our recreation time the stock market, but do not forget the good scar pain. Only in this way, the real entertainment will come the era.
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