Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-02-25
The domestic stock market this year, up about 40%, at least 2 / 3 of the stock to achieve an absolute return, nearly half of the stock outperform. In the dazzling rise, many low-profit concept stocks and shares have been over-performance of the future growth in overdraft, sooner or later will become investors in a "trap."
Believe that any investor will not take a joke its own funds will not be interested in the money thrown into the water, or deliberate so that the money shrink. The same kind, like pricing, investors choose stocks, should be based on Hedonic Price. Perhaps the speculation can make money, but "when the tide receded, before we know who is swimming naked," experience has shown countless times, according to Hedonic Price will ultimately bring us substantial long-term benefits. This is the game theory in the "Nash equilibrium", with the mathematics of the Pythagorean law, as is the pursuit of the interests of all in the course of the stock market must follow rules of conduct. Those who blindly pursue speculative gains and ignore the quality of listed companies, investors, in fact, unknowingly step on one foot already in the "trap" the edge.
Ongoing two-way in the securities market liberalization, the domestic capital profit-driven approach will not lead to China and other markets, there is a big difference. We should keep a sober, China's stock market has its own deficiencies in the system does not invest in any stock can make money. Although there are nearly 1,400 listed companies, but too few high-quality listed companies, up more than 400, plus there is no convenient mechanism to withdraw from the market, poor quality, companies have difficulty in quickly appeared. In fact, many of the existing market price of inferior stock price five years ago, only a fraction of the system of defects caused by the stock price will continue to divide the main trends in future market.
Developed markets, has completed the development stage of industrialization, but the rapid development of China is only the beginning. Similarly, the industrial sector, in developed markets will gradually begins to fail, then the rapid development in China, so more time in the valuation, any difference in the quality of Chinese A shares, should be higher than the developed markets outside of the same stock. It can be predicted, the domestic A share premium in terms of industrial investment and stock selection perspective, are subject to domestic and foreign institutional long-term focus, Goldman Sachs re-Shuanghui is an example.
Concerned about the quality of individual stocks to avoid investment risk is only one aspect of difference is that with the mature markets, China's economic control policies and investment growth and change are inevitable changes in the relevant stock prices have an effect. The amount of the Chinese economy will maintain a high growth, which in turn may mislead investors because of high growth and high growth until 2004 is substantially different. 2006 China's high economic growth is perhaps the top five years ago, started a lot of industry in the past two years, begin to release capacity, bottlenecks in the industry supply and demand situation over the past year has been greatly eased, industry overcapacity situation will continue to appear.
Bull market in this economic condition has arisen because the capital has a chance to return, people are very pessimistic about the prospects for investment in industry, so as funds into the stock market. However, some excess capacity, industry competition, corporate profits, the rate of return decline in performance of listed companies is expected to decline in growth, these industries make the stock price generally very difficult to have outstanding performance, such as electricity, coal, iron and steel. Perhaps in the short term we can get a rebound in these industries a number of benefits, but with some industry background, compared to a healthy plate, the final returns will certainly be very different. High-quality business, health, industry background is what we are ducking the bull "trap" the key.
