Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-03-22
The most complete power equipment products listed companies: Power-share business related to power plant boilers, power transmission equipment, a low-voltage transformer high, high school low-voltage switches, industrial control automatic, electric power automation and engineering complete all aspects of import and export company, is the power equipment, the most complete listing of products, and the supporting capacity of most companies.
Main Business will turn for the better: Power-share main business including low-voltage switchgear, engineering, business is moving in complete good direction, 2007 will be the performance of the inflection point, after the company's main business of the profits will be more positive contribution to to the greater.
Generating investment income to maintain high transmission rapid growth of investment income: 1, power generation, investment income will remain high, performance will be higher than market expectations, power transmission business investment income into the harvest period, the proportion of the total net profit will be increased year by year. 2, the company are related to world-renowned electrical equipment giant set up a joint venture, in the transmission and transformation equipment industry has a strong technological advantage and brand barriers, is the high-end network equipment strong competitors. 3, high-pressure areas including 500KV and above GIS, transformers and transformer investment income will be increasing rapidly.
Transmission accounted for rapid increase in our businesses, should be a reasonable valuation, target price of 28.9 yuan: Our company 06,07,08-year EPS forecast to be 1.14,1.41, and 1.56 yuan. Among these the proportion of power transmission business will be gradually increased, 07,08 years the contribution of net profit to reach 55% and 60%, if its just the price-earnings ratio for power generation equipment in accordance with the valuation is extremely unreasonable. We give its power generation business in 2007 15 times price-earnings ratio, power transmission business in 2007 25 times earnings. Weighted estimates, the company's current and reasonable price should be around 28.9 yuan from the current share price and 50% upside, given the "optimal -2" investment rating, investment advice "buy."
Power shares (600,627 market, information, reviews, search)全资或控股now has seven subsidiaries, two equity companies and 15 joint ventures, industry related to power plant boilers, power transmission equipment, high low-voltage transformer once , high school low-voltage switches, industrial control, automatic, electric power automation and engineering, and import and export of complete sets of all parts of electrical equipment can be called the most complete listing of products, and the supporting capacity of most companies.
Second, power transmission industry booming, corporate strategy shift from the low-voltage high-voltage power transmission companies by sector for the industry, the state in the "Eleventh Five-Year" period, will invest around 1.2 trillion yuan for the construction of power grids, power grids, the intensity of the building will be is greater than the power-building efforts, will build 1000kV UHV AC, 800kV DC transmission experiment and demonstration projects; to achieve, "west to east, north and south each other for the national network" approach to development, can be said that the next 5-10 years, transmission and distribution industry in a good period of vigorous development.
Shanghai is China's major areas affected by power in history can not be developed by the national policy to limit the high-voltage High Voltage Transmission equipment products. In recent years, with the industrial upgrading the national grid, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Grid Corporation of China have expressed their support for Shanghai on the high pressure, ultra high pressure, ultra high voltage, power-on shares as Shanghai Power Transmission and Transformation of the leading enterprises of this policy to support future high-pressure area expansion of a very broad power of shares in the "Eleventh Five-Year" period to implement the "three major strategies" and building "three bases" for Focus:
"Three strategy" First, the development of ultra-high pressure, special high-pressure strategy. The implementation of the second innovation, exploration and development of ultra-high pressure, special equipment and high-voltage direct current transmission technology; two sets of strategies for development projects. The formation of the development, production, installation, service integration, complete system, to achieve domestic and international 220KV substation project general contracting projects. Third, gather the human resources strategy. Training and the introduction of industry leaders and innovative team, to "the cause, the environment, treatment" to attract talent, and strive to serve as "the introduction of a person into a group of" the combined effect.
"Three bases" One is to establish ultra-high pressure, special high-voltage equipment production base. Take a variety of cooperation or integration of resources to create their own intellectual property rights and brands, become a symbol of Shanghai Power Transmission and Distribution industries; the second is to build transmission and distribution technology R & D base, and further strengthen the company's technology center and corporate testing center building, well equipped , integrate resources, improve the level of R & D and pilot testing to become leading the development of new technologies and new equipment, research and development.
Base. The third is to establish production base in low-voltage electrical components. Company has established in Shanghai Qingpu Industrial Park, the low electrical appliances production base to expand its production scale electric plants to further develop its competitive advantage. 2, the main business bigger, profitability, and enhance the company's main business is in Table 7全资或控股subsidiaries operating mainly related to the three major industrial blocks, including transmission and distribution products segment, transmission and distribution projects, and complete sets of plates import and export trade plates. From the third quarter of 2006, core revenue, the company's core business accounted for the proportion of transmission Plate 37%, engineering, business accounted for 26% of the complete set of plates, import and export business accounted for 37% of the plate.
Main Plate Transmission & Distribution business analysis into the main statements of a subsidiary of transmission and distribution products are mainly the people of Electric Factory, Shanghai Electric Ceramic Factory and Shanghai Relay Factory.
People Electric Appliance Factory was built in 1914, has been 90-year history, 1966 years ago, said the United Electric Factory, so the use of the trademark is registered, "the Union" card. People Electric Appliance Factory is currently the total assets of nearly 4 billion yuan, mainly produces low-voltage electrical components, the main products include RMW1, RMW2 intelligent circuit breaker, RMM Series Molded Case Circuit Breaker, ME ACB, DW15HH ACB, etc.. People Electric Appliance Factory For eight consecutive years the plant was awarded Famous Brand of Shanghai, Shanghai high-tech enterprise, the enterprise, "the joint brand" brand well-known trademarks in China, Shanghai famous trademark. Completed in 2005, total sales of 640 million yuan.
Shanghai Electric Ceramic Factory Co., Ltd. is the Ministry of Machinery Industry key enterprises, the National fuse, one of the leading manufacturer of production, can provide power 220V-1500V, current-2A-2500A all kinds of industrial and semiconductor protection by fuse, and can provide HH15 series isolation switch fuse group, HR5 Fuse type isolating switch, PZ20 Modular electrical terminal portfolio residential portfolio PZ21 Series control cabinet accessories, electrical appliances and electrical products. In recent years, the people of electrical plant and Shanghai Electric Ceramic Factory focus on product quality and new product development, and actively promote "the Alliance", "flying spirits" brand strategy, making sales remained 30% per year growth rate, where "the United "air circuit breakers in the domestic industry market share 10%.
The first half of 2006 the company received 23.865 million yuan with Shanghai Relay Co., Ltd. 100% share transfer. Shanghai relay factory original and Xuchang Relay Factory, National Cheng relay factory par three relay factory, and now XJ through the expansion of the power of the industrial automation business as the Group has the following, and A following the far left has yet to come. Power-on the subsequent acquisition of shares of its capital increase carried out at the same time to send senior executives to strengthen its internal management, the Shanghai relay core business revenue in 2006 is expected to grow about 20% year on year, while the company also will expand on the following operating to the broader field of protection and power automation sectors.
Qingpu Industrial Park, the company intends to purchase 235.2 acres of land to expand manufacturing base for the land. According to the plan schedule, to be launched in the Qingpu appliances manufacturing base of a project, in the original 49.5 acres of Land on the basis of new investment 92.44 million yuan building factories, with a total construction area of 36,365 square meters, a total of new 3 #, 4 # Factory 2 , 35kV substation 1. Base of a project is completed, will be used to contact people in electric factory alloys, mold manufacturing, the production of molded case circuit breaker. In accordance with corporate planning, this base to base voltage, development pressure, the development of special appliances and DC appliances such as high-end products, upgrade their skills level, expanding the production scale and achieve extraordinary development, to the "Eleventh Five-Year" at the end of this base annual output value can reach 16-20 billion yuan.
2.2 The main engineering works better and better complete sets of plates business companies rely on "Shanghai Electric" and the impact of domestic and foreign qualification to a number of subsidiaries under the joint venture's brand products are supported by the state contract in recent years a number of key projects, in order to electricity, water, rail transportation, airport terminals, posts and telecommunications, metallurgy, mining, building materials and construction focus on the development providing a wide range of electrical products and complete sets of large-scale transmission and distribution equipment. Beginning in 2006, this "project complete strategy" positive results, the company has to undertake a re-plant on the 220kV substation project and the Sudan five 220kV substation projects general contracting, engineering, complete business grew 60% over last year, we believe that the company's Project complete strategy has been getting better, in the past this part of the company's gross margin is very low, only about 3%, it is because there are many single engineering business, and now with the recent access of large sets of high-margin engineering business to be fulfilled in the next few years, complete engineering services will appear to enhance both revenue and gross margin of good behavior.
2.3 The main import and export Plate power-on business development and stability of shares by a subsidiary of Shanghai Electric Import & Export Co., Ltd. annually to the national and Southeast Asia, Oceania, South America and Africa, such as Malaysia, Thailand, Pakistan, Iran, Mauritania, and Saint Lucia country a large number of complete sets of electrical equipment sales to Europe and North America exported a large number of batteries, electronic components and so on. This part of the business are sales agents brand products, gross profit margin is very low for about 1%, and with the appreciation of the yuan and foreign trade situation has become more severe, the future of our part of the business should be relatively stable, the company's profit contribution is limited.
2.4 to a new electric energy industry development of the current stock has already reached a joint venture in Canada Senruikesi intention, from the power-share holding, Senruikesi provide wind power inverter devices and grid technology, joint ventures, the next five years will rely on Shanghai Electric Group, the overall platform, developed into a new energy industry across the country to provide devices and inverter for grid technology services provider. If the successful formation of a joint venture, we expect that the production of the inverter within the next five years, the income of the company could reach 5 million yuan, net profit of 1 billion yuan.
In summary, we believe that power-share main business is moving in a good direction, the company's current main business although a small or even negative net contribution, but we believe 2007 will be the performance of the inflection point, after which the company The main business of the positive contribution to profits will be bigger and bigger.
Third, return on investment analysis, while the company's main profit will turn for the better, but in the next few years the company's investment income is still the main source of company profits. The company's investment income derived from the two equity firms and 15 joint ventures, from the industry sub-segment can be divided into power generation and power transmission business blocks.
3.1 generation business performance of investment income will be higher than market expectations held by Shanghai Boiler Works Co., Ltd. (the pot) 49% stake in the pot as the three major domestic manufacturer of power boilers in order to operate large-scale nuclear power station boilers and boilers for the fire Lord, but also concurrently chemical equipment and industrial boilers. 2003-2005, Shanghai Boiler Works were to achieve net profit of 898 million yuan, 76.99 million yuan, and 532.33 million yuan in the next few years come to an end with the climax of power station construction, the Shanghai Boiler Factory of new orders would have been reduced Therefore, the market worried about the performance of Shanghai Boiler Works will seriously decline, which dragged down the company's overall profits. Our analysts believe that 07-09 years of performance on the pot plant will remain at a high level, it will exceed market expectations, have the following reasons: one, the existing order backlog enough: According to the Shanghai Electric (2727.HK)
Notice mid-2006, Shanghai Electric Power Generation Equipment order backlog more than 70 million KW. From 2005 the completion of 20 million kilowatts, is expected to be completed in 2006 the proportion of 28 million kilowatts, the company's outstanding number of orders in hand have been sufficient to ensure the company in 2007 -09 years of full production run. 2, a huge foreign markets: Many Latin American countries in Southeast Asia, as well as the recent construction projects have enormous power that China's power generation equipment manufacturers After this round of large-scale equipment, whether technically or from the cost control is already enough to go to the world power generation equipment with foreign giants to compete, and the State in order to prevent power generation equipment business performance ups and downs are bound to the corresponding policies to support exports of power generating equipment. Therefore, China's exports of power generating equipment will rapidly increase, as China's Shanghai Boiler Works Boiler Works, one of the three must have benefited much from overseas orders will continue to increase. 3, Shanghai Boiler Factory's own business structure also has a certain anti-cyclical, one of nuclear power is on the evaporator pan features and advantages of nuclear power by the ASME standard product assurance system audit, becoming the first domestic nuclear power with an international qualification equipment manufacturers. Within the next few years, still in the acceleration phase of nuclear power plant construction. Second, the company's business development is also very effective, such as steel production, engineering, complete sets of operations. A comprehensive view, we believe that power of shares from the Shanghai Boiler Works return on investment remains high in the next three years to run, cyclical than the market view that a clear, performance will be higher than market expectations.
3.1 Transmission and Distribution business investment income blossom everywhere, into the harvest period of transmission and distribution companies in the high-end products for joint venture with world-renowned multinational companies set up 15 joint ventures, joint-venture partners include Germany's Siemens Group, France's Schneider Group, France's Areva Group. Have significant impact on investment returns can be divided into switching operations, transformer services, distribution and industrial control business, mutual inductance and casing operations.
Switch Business Investment Income: The company were held by Shanghai Siemens High Voltage Switchgear Co., Ltd. 49% stake and Shanghai Co., Ltd. 45% stake in Siemens switches. Shanghai Siemens High Voltage Switchgear Co., Ltd. is the only outside Germany produce the same voltage class GIS products, manufacturer Siemens is now able to produce 220,000 volts GIS switch, 50-kilovolt GIS switch. Since its inception, the company's business is developing rapidly, the market share is climbing, the industry leader in the peer. Its main competition in Henan Ping Gao Toshiba high-voltage switch Co., Ltd., Xi'an High-Voltage Electric Co., Ltd. and the Open New Northeast Electric (Shenyang) High Voltage Switchgear Co., Ltd. and so on. Siemens GIS switch to small size, high reliability and known. One 145 kV 8DN8 type of interval width of only 800 mm, 252 kV8DN9 type of interval width of 1500 mm, all aluminum shell, spring operating mechanism, is the voltage level kind in the world most compact product. At present, Shanghai Siemens High Voltage Switchgear products that a greater proportion of raw materials and spare parts from Germany, the future of raw materials and spare parts will come in China, local production. Toshiba, the last two years from the flat high-profit growth is not difficult to judge the Siemens High Voltage Switchgear in the next five years will be rapid development, projected growth in 2006 net profit up 100% over net profit of up to 50 million years or so, The net profit is expected to in 2008 could be more than 100 million yuan.
Siemens Shanghai Switchgear Co., Ltd. is located in Shanghai Minhang Economic and Technological Development Zone, is the only one of Siemens in China, development, production and sale of medium voltage switchgear, in particular the 10-35kV medium voltage vacuum circuit breaker switches, as well as a joint venture company, its products are widely used in the domestic power plants, substations, steel mills, petrochemical plants and paper industry and other fields. The company in December 2004 the expansion of the plant in Minhang, the completion of the plant so that the productive capacity of Siemens Shanghai Switchgear Co., Ltd. more than triple the same time, the company's R & D efforts will also be significantly enhanced. With 2005 sales of 6.65 billion, orders 849 million yuan to achieve more than 30% growth rate. We expect Siemens Shanghai Switchgear Co., Ltd. for at least the next three years remained at 20 percent net profit increase of more than.
Transformers Investment Income: The company holds the Haie Hai enamel were 41% stake in Transformer Co., Ltd. and Shanghai ABB Transformer Co., Ltd. 49% share. Enamel on transformers Haie Hai Co., Ltd. mainly produces 35kV and above, large power transformers, special transformers and reactor products. In March 2004 the company's first 500kV high pressure, large-capacity transformer factory and an Internet connection to run smoothly, at present, the company has formed scale production of 220kV and higher voltage grade power transformers capacity. Its competitors include changes in Shenyang, the West changed, Tianwei insurance change, value change, Changzhou Toshiba, Chongqing ABB, Shanghai Alstom transformers. Haie Hai, 2004-2005 Enamel on transformers at the new products into production losses in the early period, currently the company 500KV transformer production technology has matured, and the main raw materials of copper, silicon steel prices steady ups and downs, the Corporation's profits quickly upgrade in 2006 is expected to a profit of around 60 million, 2007 earnings expected to exceed 100 million yuan.
ABB Shanghai Transformer Co., Ltd. is a production of ABB in China, industry, 35kv following dry and oil-immersed distribution transformer joint venture, ABB transformers in China, five joint venture, ABB Hefei Transformer Co., Ltd., Chongqing ABB Transformer Co., Ltd., Zhongshan ABB Transformer Co., Ltd., Shanghai ABB Transformer Co., Ltd. and ABB Distribution Transformer (Hefei) Co., Ltd., which is responsible for producing high-end Chongqing ABB Transformer products and production of 500 kV ABB Hefei below 220 kV and above products, while the production of 200 Zhongshan ABB and 110 kV between the products, Shanghai, ABB, and three small compared to the scale of production, the production of small and medium dry-type transformers and oil immersed transformers, etc., so the pace of development in recent years, smaller than the Haie Hai enamel Transformer Co., Ltd., We believe that this company in the coming years should be a steady growth in net profit, maintaining about 10% speed.
Investment income distribution and industrial control operations: power distribution companies were held by Schneider Electric Shanghai Co., Ltd. 20% stake and Shanghai Schneider Industrial Control Co., Ltd. 20% interest. Schneider Electric Shanghai Co., Ltd. mainly produces low-voltage distribution of air circuit breakers and load switches (MT), their products are in the low-voltage switch high-end products, product volume optimization, built-in communications and measurement capabilities, with easy to install, user friendly interface, easy to operate, the design features easy, refined products, management efficiency, has been a large number of domestic electrical appliances manufacturers with benchmark companies.
Schneider Shanghai Industrial Control Co., Ltd is currently the only company authorized to produce and sell industrial control markets in the world, occupying the first position TELEMECCANIQUE D2 series and accessories manufacturers, the main products are famous the world TE electrical series, GV2 motor protection switch, LC1 contactor, LR2 thermal relay and so on.
More than 10 billion in annual sales.
Schneider Electric As a global power distribution and automation and control leader, in a recent rapid development momentum, the two joint-venture company was established longer, has entered a stable period of development, we believe that their future performance should be a steady growth.
Transformer and casing investment income: The company were held by Shanghai MWB Transformer Plant and Fushun Co., Ltd. 30% Legend casing and 33% of the shares. In 1993, Shanghai Transformer Works joint venture with the German MWB, MWB Transformer Co., Ltd. was established in Shanghai. Introduced stand-alone 72.5kV-750kV transformer manufacturing technology SF6 gas in the domestic manufactured and put into operation in 1995. In 2000, Shanghai Transformer Works and Legend Group (TRENCH) to expand a joint venture, the introduction of the Swiss HAEFELY35kV-550kV oil-filled insulated current transformer, oil-immersed insulation voltage transformer, capacitor voltage transformer, reactor casing, and manufacturing technology. Shanghai MWB transformer's competitors are mainly New Electric (Wuxi) Co., Ltd., Guilin Power Capacitor Co., Ltd. and so on. MWB Shanghai Transformer Co., Ltd. in 2005 sales of nearly 7 billion in revenue, enterprises of major economic indicators are listed first in the Chinese transformer industry. At the same time also has a stake in power transformer factory in Shenyang 35% of the shares, so that Shanghai MWB transformer factory and Shenyang Transformer Factory with China 500kV transformer on the possession of more than 80% market share. As the transmission and transformation equipment industry, 2006-2015, will usher in the golden age of development, the company as a leading transformer manufacturing companies can benefit from the industry's steady growth. Legend Casing Co., Ltd. Fushun is capable of producing 1100kv Condenser Casing Bushing, developed in China at present the highest voltage levels porcelain sets, manufacturing technology is the leading domestic level, in the first UHV test lines have been successfully won the bid. Other investment income: Other joint ventures include Shanghai Hitachi Household Appliances Co., Ltd., the Haie Hai Enamel Electric Power Automation Co., Ltd. Shanghai Matsushita Electric Automation Co., Ltd., Shanghai Siemens Circuit Protection Co., Ltd., Sea Cooper Power Capacitor Co., Ltd., Shanghai C & D Battery Co. companies, the profitability of these companies is not currently strong, less impact on investment returns, we are here to exhaustive analysis. Hitachi Household Appliances heavy losses in which the current power of shares and the acquirer has the intention to reach is expected to be completed before the end of this year to sell, you can reduce the return on investment losses.
Integrated power-on on a detailed analysis of equity investment income, we believe that the following characteristics: 1, power generation, investment income will remain high, performance is higher than market expectations, power transmission business investment income into the harvest period, the proportion of the total net profit will be increased year by year. 2, the company are related to world-renowned electrical equipment giant set up a joint venture, in the transmission and transformation equipment industry has a strong technological advantage and brand barriers, is the high-end network equipment strong competitors. 3, the product widely covers the high-voltage switchgear, transformers, electrical distribution, automation and other fields, we can say power is the power equipment shares of listed companies supporting most productive companies. 4, high-pressure areas of rapid increase in investment income, including the production of high-voltage switch company in Shanghai Siemens High Voltage Switchgear, producing high-voltage transformers are on the Haie Hai enamel transformer company, producing high-voltage transformer and the transformer casing are MWB and Shanghai Fushun Legend casing factory, these companies have a strong high pressure area of the technological advantages, market share, is enormous, coupled with relying on power-up shares of State-owned Shanghai Electric a good platform, I believe the next few years will be a great period of development. The following table is our power-share investment income forecast:
Gross margins will rebound in the company transformers, relays, electrical transformers and distribution of raw materials are mainly silicon steel sheet, wire (mainly copper), and steel. 2005-06, due to non-ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum, especially in copper prices rise, and to maintain high, to the electrical equipment industry to bring enormous cost pressure. We expect that by the end of 2006 to the significant downturn in copper prices in early 2007 will significantly cut the company engaged in transmission and transformation equipment industry's costs and enhance company performance.
Income tax rate remains unchanged is the company's joint venture high-tech enterprises, the current income tax rate of 15%, the parent company is also a high-tech enterprises, income tax rate of 15%. The company said that even if two taxes after the merger, high-tech enterprises in tax breaks will not change, remains 15%.
4.3 issuing short-term financing bills to reduce financing costs in 2006 the company issued a 5 billion in short-term financing bonds, issuing period of one year, will save the company about 10 million financial cost. 5.1 Non-owned joint venture, the risks: From Participation to achieve an investment holding company income is the main source of the formation of net profit. Companies affiliated with 15 non-controlled joint ventures, there is a certain risk management and profit-shifting.
The analysis we believe that shares power in the management of joint ventures, or more stringent and successful. Company's joint ventures in selected high-quality staff for the Chinese executives, while company management also serve as chairman of the joint venture or the Board of Directors. Board of Directors have an annual budget for next year will be considered an important business indicators have been the company's management agreed to recognize the joint venture company's quarterly report on time to budget implementation, in the joint venture's production and management decision-making, the Chinese side Board members and senior managerial staff as an extremely important role to ensure the steady development of the joint venture. From these joint ventures operational data we can see that most of the joint venture has completed the initial products to create pre-production and market development period, to enter a relatively stable period of development.
High-risk group shocks: The recent Shanghai Electric Group is not a small top-level turbulence, as far as we look at the company should not have a negative impact on production and operation.
Liu Tongpan smaller risk: the company's total share capital of 518 million shares, of which only 5,100 shares of capital stock in circulation, circulation of equity smaller, less liquid, the stock vulnerable to manipulation and volatility. But the company recently said it intends to expand the flow of capital, create more opportunities for investors.
Power source of profit can be divided into shares of power generation equipment and transmission and distribution equipment category class of business operations, the current A-share market for power generation equipment and transmission and distribution equipment, a price-earnings ratio is different from the current A-share market leading power generation equipment business The average 2007 price-earnings ratio at around 15 times, while the transmission and distribution industr
