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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Although the subject matter or table often in the forefront of stock Naoteng Recently, however, continued innovation and high-priced stocks more attractive to investors eye high. This week, one distinct feature of the market a high-priced stock index rose to 1.89%, ranking first in all the plates. Guizhou Moutai, ZTE, Offshore Oil Engineering, Shenzhen Chiwan and other stocks are already in a high state of continuous innovation, just from the movements of these stocks see, we do not see the shadow of a bear market in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets.
Since 2003, the high index of leading shares parted ways with the broader market trend, as the current market, a very beautiful scenery. Whenever the sign of the overall market adjustment, there is always a large number of market participants to predict the collapse of high-priced blue-chip market will be a blow to the next element --- as in "9.14" Quotes latter part of the market as had been expected. However, these high-priced blue-chip never gets what it wants, in the people's suspicions amid Diego highs. Innovation in high-priced stocks with high confidence what come from? On what basis they are flying in the sky?
Goofy shares of the four characteristics of
In fact, we are concerned about the long-standing high-priced blue chips. We started in 2003 continued to focus ZTE, Shanggangjixiang solid fundamentals and some other stocks; beginning of this year, the author has written that in the edition, long-term investment in high-priced stock will lead to obtain excess returns.
We believe that the enterprise is the foundation of basic value judgments, that is, institutional investors confidence that stocks are from the right business confidence. And the mature market-related stocks seen, makes the domestic sector for this part of the A shares increased confidence.
Let's look at the characteristics of these high-priced leading shares. 1, the company has a core competitiveness. This competitiveness is not innate, but through their own efforts to get. Such as ZTE's market competitiveness, such as Maotai's market influence, etc.; 2, there is a good business records. In addition to 1999, such as ZTE's profit fell once outside, basically maintained continuously since its listing in 1997, growing from 1996 annual profit of less than 1 million, an increase of 10 billion yuan to the present; 3, the stock undervalued. Dynamic price-earnings ratio is kept at about 20 times. ZTE, Maotai, Shanghai airport, etc., the dynamics of these stocks were about 20 times earnings; 4, in the foreseeable future, the company able to achieve steady growth. On the one hand, the majority of such stocks have a bright future, but near-term prospects are very promising. On the other hand, the long term, such stocks have Chinese characteristics, defying international. Such as the Chinese medicine industry, Tong Ren Tang, Yunnanbaiyao, East A donkey-hide gelatin; port class Shanggangjixiang. The investment value of these shares is unique.
It is in support of these points, ZTE, Shanggangjixiang, Tong Ren Tang, Shanghai airport, the stock stood out from the four major bear market. Found in these stocks we do not see the shadow of a bear market, or that a four-year bear market has made its way these stocks.
The new profit model highlights
Since 2003, the value of investment in in-depth making the "superior investment enterprises can obtain excess proceeds" become a new profit model, which for the A share investors, the excitement no less than discovering a new continent. Constant profit, deepening people's recognition of this kind of profit model, making use of this model began to increase the number of profit-making institution, funds began to increase. Accordingly, such shares continuously hit new highs. When the advantages of enterprise value to gradually discovered by investors, such stocks have become the leading high-priced shares of the. Furthermore, continued investment in high-priced stocks have become the leading choice of funds.
In fact, such a structural change in the market, meaning that only a small part of the stock continued to rise situation, in which the past can be seen in emerging markets. The initial state is Qi Zhang were down, buy stocks just to look at tape, tape up everything up; With the entry of QFII, the market maturity, began to expand, the value of investment had begun to dominate the market. Furthermore, some edge-oriented enterprises continued to rise long-term situation, but long-term investments of such high-priced stocks leading QFII, have also obtained excess returns.
Currently, the Fund is clearly sympathetic to the profit model groups. The fourth quarter of the fund is still high in the overweight group of high-priced stocks. The fund portfolio disclosure shows that the fund holdings in the fourth quarter of 3987 Shanggangjixiang shares, holdings of Xishan Coal and Electricity 3446 shares, holdings OCT 2790 shares, 2401 shares of Shanghai airport holdings, holdings of 14.93 million ZTE shares, holdings of Tongrentang 1756 shares, holdings of the East A donkey-hide gelatin 775 million shares, holdings of Yanjing Beer 796 million shares, holdings of 422 million shares of Moutai.
So, the current profit model and PLAY what is the difference? The composition of the main body from the market perspective, the leading high-priced stocks Diego highs, and then making manipulation is another story. On the one hand, the participants began to institutionalize, and rational. Fund currently control 300 billion yuan of funds, the market is absolutely the main. This previous banker is different. On the other hand, behavior in different ways. Now institutional investors, more emphasis on the value of the company itself, as well as the value of the trend, while the bookmakers value is how many people cheated. The growth of institutional investors, making the value investment philosophy continually be strengthened.
Who will be the comer
The problem now is that there are those who fly, who left behind? Present potential persons, who will rise up?
We note that even if the current leading share of these expensive new high one after another, and some value-based judgments of the analysts still believe that the stock should continue to buy most of them, or hold. In other words, these high-priced stocks leading the majority still do not overestimate. For example, most research institutions, ZTE, Maotai, Shanghai airport, deep Chiwan and OCT judgments, most of them to hold or buy.
We believe that, if in 2003, 2004, the existence of these high-priced leading shares was up two power (power + companies discovered the value of the time value), then the value of shares is now found in most high-priced power is weakening. With the share price rise, the underestimated factor in reducing the other factors that will have to rely on the company's own performance has improved, that is, high time value of leading shares.
The so-called high-value time value of leading shares, that is, the leading high-priced stocks because of the time extension and makes it worth upgrading. As the leading high-priced shares of the corresponding companies generally able to maintain higher than the industry average, and the more rapid revenue growth. They have a certain stability of the growth in net profit, cash flow growth also has a certain stability, which makes growth in the value of certain guarantees. In other words, the passage of time will make the value of such shares may be raised.
The key here lies in two aspects: first, whether the level of the current stock price significantly exceeded the company's intrinsic value; second, maximizing the value of the principles of business objectives will continue to soar touchstone.
