Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-07-23
National Bureau of Statistics released a report yesterday, 1-May, urban fixed-asset investment 2.5443 trillion yuan, 30.3% compared with same period last year. The experts interviewed agreed that this "growth too fast!" Expert recommendations: It should take the necessary administrative measures to curb the impulse to invest local governments; the same time, adherence to land and credit, the two gates in order to effectively control fixed assets rapid growth of investment situation.
Faster growth rate of investment
The first quarter of this year, after the release of economic data, the central government adopted a series of adjustment measures, including cement, electrolytic aluminum industry, several major adjustments in excess capacity, including an emphasis continues to land, credit, strictly guard the gate, but also includes the real estate industry regulation and control and so on. However, urban fixed asset investment growth slowed slightly in April, after a rebound in May again.
"This growth is too fast!" When a reporter first time to 1-5 month fixed-asset investment data tell the chief macroeconomic analyst at CITIC Construction Investment Zhu Jian-fang, he expressed surprise.
Before March last year, the former in April and the first 5 months of data, China's urban fixed-asset investment growth rate of 22.8%, respectively, 25.7% and 26.4%. Under the influence of the role of the base, according to common sense, from March to May of this year's growth should be slowing down. But the reality is that before March of this year, the former in April and May before the growth rate of investment in fixed assets were 29.8%, 29.6% and 30.3%, the speed was faster trend, which is still the central government to strengthen achieved under the conditions of regulation. Therefore, the current investment situation is not optimistic.
Local government investment is the fundamental impulse
Previous data show that in May, the central project investment 271.8 billion yuan, up 22.7%; local investment 2.2726 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.3%. Zhang Zhuoyuan economists hold the view that the local government's investment impulse led to rapid growth in fixed asset investment in the underlying causes, which in turn with the performance evaluation of local government officials concerned. "Difficult to rely solely on economic means to solve the problem." Zhang Zhuoyuan said. This year is the "Eleventh Five-Year," the first year, local governments are Biezulejin projects, if the government reforms in place, and government functions can not really change the problem of excessive fixed-asset investment growth is difficult to be effectively controlled.
Administrative measures to catch up with the crucial moment
14, a State Council executive meeting held have made it clear that the current economic operation of the main problems is the excessive growth of fixed asset investment, excessive money and credit.
How can we curb the rapid growth of fixed assets? 14, the State Council executive meeting of the clear, we must always take a good land, credit, two gates, strict implementation of market access standards; resolutely curb illegal land use cases and severely deal with major cases of illegal land use; strictly control new projects, in particular, must be strictly Control of excess capacity the industry in new projects; strictly control the scale of urban construction; seriously implement the adjustment of housing supply structure, stable housing prices measures.
Macro-economic analyst with CITIC Securities Ji-Jun Chen responded by saying that a good job of land and credit, two gates to control the excessive growth in fixed asset investment in an effective way.
Zhu Jian-Fang said that because of the lag-control policies, policy effects still observed for some time. "If the macroeconomic data is still very hot in June, then they should put a number of new regulatory policies and administrative constraints."
However, Zhang Zhuoyuan that in curbing the rapid growth of fixed asset investment, the illegal occupation of land to conduct enforcement inspections are more efficient than the credit crunch. Zhang Zhuoyuan explained that essentially all of the items to the final must be implemented in the land, according to a recent Land and Natural Resources explained that there are at least more than 20% of the project is illegal land use, while the local government area of the main characters is illegal. From this perspective, a good job of working the land the gate is very difficult, but if carefully implemented, but also more effective.
"The excessive growth of investment has been strong support for the credit. Local government rate of blind comparisons, the investment is a strong impulse to the crux of the problem. Solve the problem, the key moment of administrative measures to keep up with." Relevant experts here say.
