Experts point Tianjin The three major departure from the implied market risk financial management t

Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-03-05

Source: Yangcheng Evening News

After the Spring Festival, the market trends occurred in the operation of a significant change from being a rising trend into a consolidation trend. At the same time, the market is not some departure from a normal phenomenon. What does this mean?

Departure from the faucet and the broader market

First of all, the leading stocks fell with the broader market higher at the same time appeared, indicating the former market leader, recently suffered a large selling pressure. The people who hold these species is leading whom? Institutional investors clearly occupied a primary place. While the market's driving force is from a multiplicity of themes from the recent stock speculation heating up the situation, the general public and general market institutions are the main driving force.

The market shares of many leading private equity fund favorite varieties, they formed a moderate lighten up the pressure on these stocks stage; Meanwhile, ordinary retail investors flocked into the capital market, there queuing to buy the fund over the years a rare scene, indicating that retail funds, or constant into the stock market. This is the reason why our market adjustment in the context of blue-chip, but also can be one of the main sideways at a high level.

Departure from the stock index and the turnover of

Second, the stock price and the amount of run departed from there, which they say? After the Spring Festival, while the Shanghai Composite hit a new high point position, but the overall market turnover began to gradually shrink, the last few trading days is even more apparent. Shanghai market, nearly 30 average daily turnover of 850 billion yuan, while the last three trading days of the transaction were a mere 700 billion yuan.

In general, the market will rise in Suliang are two possibilities: First, the market basically formed up consensus, and sellers reluctant sellers, leading to decreased turnover; Another possibility is that the original trend of the market maintain higher inertia, the investment those who run the pattern for the future is not a consensus, but the differences appeared large, buyers began to caution caused by decreased turnover. Is it prudent buyer or seller the amount of departure from reluctant sellers, market price formation is to determine the amount of departure from the market after prices to run the key. Judging from the current situation, I believe that the market is far from being the formation of the future market is expected to be significantly higher in the contrary, investors are beginning to care is a fact.

A shares and H shares of departure from the

Finally look at A, H and why deviate from running. On the one hand, A, H runs diverge, reflecting the differences between domestic and foreign investors. It can be said, H shares of the recent adjustments of foreign investors to look at the empty stage of H shares, resulting in H shares have more than 20% of the decline; on the contrary, A-share market investors are buying at this time is still a strong force, supporting the operation of the market. Of course, compared to the valuation of the two markets, we will be very clear to see that foreign investors is still quite picky; while A share investors are also overly generous. Currently A, H market, price-earnings ratio, respectively 36 times and 18 times.

On the other hand, we can also see that since 2003, A, H linkage between them significantly strengthened; from a longer time perspective, the volatility of both is basically the same; but during the operation stage, the two but often there are gaps. Case in the past shows that if the operation of H shares to determine the trend of the formation, A shares tend to occur following performance fluctuations. I found that H shares in large fluctuations in the A shares tend to lead from 1 to 1.5 months. In this fluctuation, H-share index after the New Year began to adjust to the week's biggest drop of more than 20%. So, A shares of this will appear as strong as ever to follow the fluctuations of it? Linked to the points mentioned above depart from, I believe that at least part of institutional investors and private equity fund is to think so, because their behavior illustrates this problem.

(China Securities Investment Xu Hui)