Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-06-13
Source: Beijing in the first place
In the financial, real estate, stocks and other cities of the local hot spots continued to rise driven by U.S. stocks rebounded Wednesday, in the last 60 days and 30 touching two important MA, Yao City appears ascribed to down trend. In the Thursday, Friday and other important data on GDP and CPI to be announced sensitive moment in the end how the evolution of short-term market trend? There is need for the two after the release of CPI data for the market change in the situation in depth.
First, economic growth, the trend of overheating from growing too fast to clear heavyweight ascribed to drop positive support the market remain uncertain.
Stock index from July 9 to July 16, after a row sideways, short-term are facing is under the direction of choice, at this critical juncture, the insurance funding to expand the proportion of investment in A shares, as well as the NPC Financial and Economic Committee pointed out: To prevent the stock market big fluctuations in the market have been interpreted as good news to stabilize the market, which encouraged the real estate, finance, local hot spots such as local stocks rebound enthusiasm. However, from the real estate leader Wanke ascribed to fall, China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and other heavyweights have emerged ascribed to fall, indicating that there are also good to support the market worries.
If further in-depth study "to prevent big fluctuations in the stock market" particularly serious, carefully and repeatedly read the following piece of text, "The committee members believe that the current economic operation of the major contradictions and problems are: economic growth from growing too fast to overheated the trend is more obvious; trade surplus is too large, too much credit, excessive investment growth remains outstanding; The fast growth of high energy-consuming industries, energy saving and emission reduction situation is still grim; price inflation pressures continue to increase, especially those involving the masses vital interests of the food prices and housing prices rose rapidly; guide the healthy development of capital markets, the task is arduous. "tends to produce economic overheating and higher pressure on the macro-control, then the interest rate or reduce interest tax, as well as the possibility of introduction of other macro-control and expectations are greatly enhanced. Wed resource tax increase as the result of non-ferrous metal stocks fell, from the mid-term point of view, but people worry about whether the future of macro-control measures on the market, as well as some blue-chip groups have a certain negative impact on the medium-term trend, after all, in 2004, the macro-control has precedent leading to the adjustment index is still there.
2, CPI data on the market after the release of two kinds of change in the situation most likely trend, short-term difficult to change the index in July to run periodic large box pattern.
GDP data will be published tomorrow, Friday will be published CPI data, market access by news of this most sensitive moment, there is need to explore ahead of CPI data release, in particular the interest rate or a tax regulation is expected to lower interest rates on the current market trend of a significant impact. As the stock from July 9 at the 60-day moving average has always been under the operation process of the horizontal vibration, CPI data and the possible introduction of control measures, it is highly likely to be sideways to break the market, triggering the market up or down to change disc that is after the release of CPI data, short-term market is the most likely to be changed upward or downward trend set to run two.
CPI data for the overheated market has had a more fully expected, CPI data release only been able to have a major impact short-term market trends, the key is overheating after the release of CPI data, the state will take control measures, this is after the release of CPI data affect the core elements of the market change in the situation. At present, the CPI as the market right after the announcement, the authorities concerned to take interest rates to reduce interest tax, regulation and control measures have been fully anticipated in advance with the recent market repeatedly Su Liang, insurance, stock prices and the decline of other local stocks, are gradually bit by bit to digest such a regulation is expected, it should be said that the market be able to Suliang horizontal run, is already a strong performance.
From the CPI was announced, the State take appropriate control measures, the impact of change in the situation on the market point of view, first, if the CPI overheated after the publication of the state to take only the interest rate or reduce the tax on interest of one of the macro-control measures, then, It should be said is less than the market generally expected with both the control measures introduced will produce short-term advantage of this opportunity into a positive. Control measure is introduced to the market opening has become a low short-term selling points, will have a short-term stock index rebounded more than 4,000 points to launch attacks.
Second, if the CPI was announced, the state in taking interest rates and reduce the interest tax-control measures, supporting the unilateral introduction of stamp duty and other positive measures to support the market, then the control measures and expected the same, but the positive support the market than investors had anticipated, long on the confidence of investors will be encouraged, there will be some money off watching re-admission. Short-term market is expected to break up, low-cost short-term oversold stocks will start to rebound more strength in blue chips, blue chips are expected to commence mid-year report results of wave market, the stability of market shares in the broad market return distribution is more favorable. This situation may be most conducive to the market phase stability, but also all aspects of the market participants can work together to achieve a win-win situation. Therefore, this column would like to urge the parties concerned in a number of control measures introduced at the same time, be sure to pay attention to stock market stability and healthy development, taking into account the general interests of investors.
Third, if after the publication of the CPI, the state in taking those lower interest rates and the interest tax, but also for some overheated sectors, to take macro-control measures, such as in some industries in recent phase of the export tax rebate policy adjustment,
Non-ferrous metals industry, the increase resource tax, a number of more or less the performance of listed companies will be subject to certain negative effects, will affect a number of local industry, the trend of individual stocks. If these stocks are blue-chip industry, or have a major impact on the market trend of heavyweight, then this trade control measures adopted, would also have a significant negative impact on the broader market. Such as real estate stocks led Jinliang Ri, real estate signs of overheating is more obvious, the future will not have the appropriate control measures introduced, which are to be seen, therefore, for some short-term rose species, or to maintain a were sober.
On the whole, CPI data is released and subsequent control measures may be issued, or will have an important impact on short-term market movements; from the medium-term perspective, the market continued in July points to 4335 points in 3400 between the big box to run the pattern of will continue. This stage, the operation of the market trend, may be in 1999, "519" big, after mid-July to September is somewhat similar to the trend. That is running in the horizontal phase, there are all the more significant volume shrinkage in the market for some time after the shock Suliang often occur one, two CUHK Yangxian rebound, followed by a relapse into Suliang shock. For this horizontal trend Suliang shocks, first of all we should focus on changes in volume, but also that in a capital-driven bull market, if there is no volume to zoom driven bull market a new round of increases could only be without rice. That is also in order to break the market, the amount of disk Bureau, in order to have market, there are opportunities; immeasurable market more often than not can only be a correction, there are often opportunities to local opportunities and small opportunities, Stock Quotes operability be able to participate often do not Strong. In the operation can pay close attention to volume changes, and then into the decision is out, as well as the position size adjustments. Second, grasp the box and the box running Xiangdi top region, patience, bargain-hunting high throw a phased operation, appropriate to reduce costs and increase certain benefits.
