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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: Monday the two cities remains steady up trend, hot spots still wheeled with market sentiment, despite a lot of psychological cautious, but because of the continuous influx of funds to maintain an active market sentiment.
Game Analysis
A) the main and policies of the Game:
1) market conditions determine the current hype ideas: Recently the market there are several very interesting phenomenon, the first one is the well-known "Hangxiao Steel" event, not only maliciously pushed up stock prices, and even the acceptance of the SFC to investigate the market are also to be red-letter. However, we can not see the results of the knowledge, share price highs. Another phenomenon is also a case of the three Pu medicine, seem to want to redo the transaction late in the second "Hangxiao Steel." Of course, the most worthy of pondering the big city than a strong, though not many people optimistic, but it is a strong alarming, every day insatiable. Unconsciously Shen Chengzhi has leapt to 10000-point level, while Hu Zhi are approaching 4000. Faced Cijing can only sigh, "mountain heavy water re doubt a blind alley and vista."
Some may say that the current market speculation has been very strong in taste. If you just from the parity valuation point of view, this view is justified, the two cities up to 40 times the weighted price-earnings ratio, both higher than the valuation of foreign mature markets is also higher than about 20 times next to the valuation of Hong Kong equities level. However, if the market's performance, this view seems a bit thin, after all, we can not evade the fact that a high index of constant innovation.
In addition, the view that the index rose too fast will result in regulatory policymaking. Arguably, this concern should not be too redundant, but the time will not be too early to worry about very worthy of discussion. First of all, as a rising wave of Quotes of the most important driving force, that is, cap, lower and other non-core blue-chip board, has been the focus of management's control, such as the investigation into some of the previous management's hype of the listed companies, from this sense regulatory policy has been introduced, so there is only whether the leadership has increased efforts to investigate possible. From the current circumstances we do not see management has increased investigate the signs. Second, management has recently begun the importance of international hot money into the A's situation, but as long as the heavyweights of international hot money is not manipulated, I believe that management will not put hard-line policy.
To sum up, the current state of the market will probably include: short-term policy pressures are relaxed, outside the capital continue to flow, theme-led mild speculation speculative market.
2) Proposed future to speak of concern to a few main lines: the first two years of a bull market, the market has underestimated the growth of the concept and the concept was fully dug grip, this decision in the 2007's bull market, assets will be injected into subjects become very popular. In fact, China's economic transformation and industrial upgrading of the characteristics of the market speculation has also been given strong support. Such as electricity, along with the power shortage situation in the stage end of the long-delayed reform of the power is expected to perk up again, as the next few years the state will concentrate on the remaining issues Changwangfenkai consolidate Changwangfenkai results, the steady implementation of the separation of major reforms to promote regional power market platform construction and large users and power producers direct transactions. In addition, the coal, China has large coal industry group strategy to be implemented by 2010, the formation of a number of 100 million tons and 5 million tons of coal enterprises, China Coal Industry Association executives disclosed that the state will soon put the coal restructuring of large groups of specific文件. Finally, the chemical industry, along with the international chemical industry, the transfer to our country, our country faced with great opportunities, while also under significant challenge. Accelerate the industry consolidation, the formation of local industry leader, has become the major aspects of the development of chemical industry.
In general, with the background of industrial development, asset injection will be in the speculative market atmosphere, the more farther and farther apart, which will become a mainstream idea of funding the main speculation.
B) the main financial Game:
Taking into account the index is at a relatively high level with the upcoming stock index futures and other factors, some of the main body throw some of the lucrative chips to lock in profits, or to shift the focus of defensive configuration varieties, but the overall position has declined relatively early stage. New funds, although some species have begun Jiancang, but the intensity Jiancang not. In general, agencies have taken to look look, The Hills view of the cautious strategy of fighting tiger, even in the heavyweight competition, the same is not deep wading.
3) between the medium and small retail game:
Proposed to focus on the texture of a good investment in M & A unit, or a lower price-earnings ratio of second-line blue-chip. For the short-term performance gains without the support of individual stocks is too large, you can consider progressively lighten up.
Disk X-ray: shock rise tomorrow is expected to maintain a strong pattern.
The opportunity to plate is expected to: It is recommended focusing on companies with assets of subject matter into the chemical industry, coal plates.
Market Risk points: short-term or excessive stocks, pay attention to out rallies.
Protection measures: proper control positions.
