Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-06-12
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: The policy of the stamp duty increase after the introduction of the broader market into the big box shock stage, the 4300 points are considered the top of the stage. However, after a recent five trading days later, this argument was subversive activities. So, institutional why in such a short period of time short squeeze big city, their motive what is it?
Game Analysis
A) the main and policies of the Game:
1) institutional short squeeze motive behind the scenes of major cities: The recent price surge, just five trading days already exceeded previous high of 4335 points. From the trend is concerned, this great city, a record high came earlier, far faster than the market expected four-quarter or even early next year; In addition, this high intensity is also relatively strong, and is basically short squeeze-type unilateral increase. So, institutional why in such a short period of time short squeeze big city.
I recall two months ago, management raised the stamp duty purpose is to suppress speculation in the atmosphere of the index rose too fast, indicating the management do not want to index rose too fast, and for this, agencies can not be unclear. Being aware that cattle are soon to face political pressure, the agency why short squeeze big city, opposite it.
This column that there are two reasons to support organizations short squeeze behavior. First, the macro-control to worry about become clear. CPI in June, before the release, the market is expected CPI growth will exceed 4 percent, which would lead management to adopt a new round of regulation. In fact, the published data and market expectations are basically consistent. In June rose 4.4% year on year, the highest since September 2004 a high point, mainly pork, eggs and other food prices rise too fast.
It is noteworthy that rapid growth for the CPI and other issues, management's stance is that "macro-economic development of growing too fast, but still in the normal track." In other words, the current level of inflation is still within the scope of management's acceptance without the need for increased regulation and control efforts. From the relevant theory, the moderate inflation conducive to economic growth as moderate inflation down in people's propensity to stimulate people's consumption and increase investment, thereby promoting economic development. At present, the management continues to take a moderate-control policies, then the macro will be able to maintain the momentum of rapid development, the profitability of listed companies are still optimistic.
Secondly, institutions may be short squeeze stock index futures-related behavior. It can be said as soon as possible perfection of the capital market-related system is the focus of the current management, including introduction of stock index is the important one. Relevant experts believe that the spot market on the stock index futures fictitious mechanism is a necessary precondition for the successful operation of the international successful experiences are the first, short-selling after buying space, first introduced fictitious trading mechanism to re-introduce stock index futures. From this perspective, a year ago, began to seek the views of margin trading system, most likely introduced in the near future. The agency short squeeze behavior may be related to margin trading business.
2) Market Hot Review: In today's market is still very active, electricity, industry, real estate and other sections doing fine with the concept of which the most prominent brokerage firms, Lansheng shares, Hechi chemical industry, the new lake entrepreneurship, Yatai Group, the city shares, Teda Company and other gainers.
The concept of the brilliant performance of brokerage, and Jinzhou six-way merge Northeast Securities have been approved by the SFC to absorb the news side on, in addition, brokers have a strong foundation for the concept. In the previous article, this column has suggested that the concept of brokerage strong market appeal. In the first half of the stock market, the brokerage concept of performance far exceeds the broader market in no way inferior to the non-ferrous metals in 2006, or the large blue-chip; another broker to support the concept of a good performance.
Strategy, the concept of the short term there are still certain brokerage upside, investors can continue to hold; but it needs to beware of a recent city may Fanchou systemic risks.
B) the main financial Game:
Taking into account the index is at a relatively high level with the upcoming stock index futures and other factors, some of the main body throw some of the lucrative chips to lock in profits, or to shift the focus of configuration varieties of higher margin of safety, but the overall position has also been a relatively early stage decline. New funds, although some species have begun Jiancang, but the intensity Jiancang not. In general, agencies have taken while walking to see, The Hills view of the cautious strategy of fighting tiger. In the heavyweight competition, the agencies have begun a preliminary layout.
3) between the medium and small retail game:
Proposed to focus on the texture of a good investment in M & A unit, or a lower price-earnings ratio of second-line blue-chip. Is too large for short-term gains without the support of the substantive subject matter stocks could be considered to gradually lighten up.
Disk X-ray: small shocks may be available tomorrow.
The opportunity to plate is expected to: It is recommended attention to the concept of brokerage.
Market Risk points: short-term or excessive stocks, pay attention to out rallies.
Protection measures: proper control positions.
