Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-10-24
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: This column considered against the backdrop of excess liquidity will be an ongoing bull market, the fund further expansion of the scale, regulators, control, hot money has been phased to suppress is to determine the current characteristics of the main aspects of market trends. At this stage bull market, broad based, and index soared a pattern of unsustainable, while the main hot spot and the previous stage bull market will also be significantly different.
This column considered against the backdrop of excess liquidity will be an ongoing bull market, the fund further expansion of the scale, regulators, control, hot money has been phased to suppress is to determine the current characteristics of the main aspects of market trends. At this stage bull market, broad based, and index soared a pattern of unsustainable, while the main hot spot and the previous stage bull market will also be significantly different.
1, against the background of excess liquidity to the market's trend is still upwards
In our article yesterday, had stressed that the excess liquidity is the objective reality. In such a premise, the management has not stuck in considering whether the excess liquidity, but rather is how to ease the liquidity problem, and the stock market is undoubtedly one of the best places flood.
In general, the double at the policy and funding support, the market upward trend will not change. It also decided, after going through the pre-policy control, the market will enter a new bull market phase.
Second, regulatory pressures are
China's stock market has always been the policy is a typical city, which is at present still not changed, the internal laws of the market at a certain stage are susceptible to distortion of policy control, especially in the management of the Queen's Fund as capital, the regulators actually strengthen the of the entire market regulation capability.
We believe that the market continued to Manniu shape, it is more in line with current management in the overall interest, the market will not be the policy side of excessive interference. But once the market by the end of 2006 before and after the crazy trend, then the policy will inevitably came under heavy regulation, it is easy for another sharp shock.
Third, the Fund Kongpan a certain extent, determine the market trend would be more moderate
With the pre-regulators, as well as the central enterprise funds for investment capital with the norms, the market capital structure will change. Namely, the recent articles mentioned in this column, the fund size will be further expanded, and the support of the policy stage to obtain the right to speak the whole market, while the hot money and the central enterprises silent phase of funds will enable the market trend is even more modest.
1, the Fund Kongpan
In the course of the current round of market volatility, the Fund is undoubtedly the biggest winner. In the context of access to policy support, the Fund fully control the rhythm of the market and further strengthen the control of chips on the market. And as the Festival of the issuance of new funds, the Fund will be further expanded their size.
The fund has actually become the most mainstream of the current stage of financial resources and the most money with the market power to decide, and this decision-making power in practice is controlled by regulators.
2, idle capital of silence so that the market is relatively stable trend
Hot money has always been the market's most dynamic and impact with the funds, but because of the regulation of regulators, hot money will be phased silence. We believe that in the last stage of the stock market, the promotion of weight, overall financial and real estate investment capital is the core strength of upside, while the hot money is very easy for a relatively quiet market trend of more moderate form.
IV Festival analysis of market trends and the main hot spot
On the basis of the above, we have further confirmed that three points:
1, the market is still living in a bull market
In the background of excess liquidity and management's reluctance to see the market fell sharply against the backdrop of the bull market is still live, over-worry about the bubble in the medium term as well as the question of risk is anachronistic.
2, broad based, and index fast-rising trend will not last long
However, due to the policy aspect, and do not want to see an explosion of index funds, as well as the stage and gradually mastered the voice market, the market rose shape and could be performed relatively mild. Index soared as the recent days the situation is more difficult sustained, broad based, the pattern is also difficult to maintain.
5, the main hot spots will change
The evolution of capital structure, as well as the existence of policy control the pressure to decide a new phase of the main hot spots will change. In the next bull market, the main hot spots will change, this round Quotes We insist that the main hot spots will appear in the asset into the concept and the adjustment of industrial structure in the context of high-growth small-cap stocks, but also to comply with the following few characteristics: First, the valuation of certain advantages; 2 is the best in line with the Fund's stock selection requirements.
Also disclosed in the annual report process, the high-Match in subject matter as well as performance, high-growth may be the biggest profits in the short-term implicit field.
