Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-02-11
Each end of the year, research institutions, brokerage firms must be for the customer strategy report issued by the new year. In the vastness of the report, we picked the Bank of China International, China International Capital Corporation, Guotai Junan, Shenyin four front-line research institutions, the most representative of the views of chief policy analyst at the macro policy, trade comparison and individual stock selection 3 done a comparative analysis of classification. We hope that the right strategy to help investors in the New Year. Need to be reminded that from the previous years experience, the strategy report on the new year in the first half, especially in the spring have a higher Quotes guide, while the weakening of the full year guidance.
Macro-policy chapter
Bank of China: tax reform will enhance the company's performance will reach 1400 points next year, the Shanghai Composite
CICC: tradable stock market may lead to greater risks for investors, especially evident in the valuation of small-cap stocks bubble
Monarch: the market will inevitably concentrated in a few hot plates, should narrow the scope of alternative investment targets, moderate concentration of investment
Shen Wan: in the second half cycle of reversal due to usher in a strategic investment opportunities, to guard against holding 5% cash pressure on non-tradable shares
Bank of China - to do a macro sense, I have always believed that, do not doubt your first impression. My first feeling is that in 2006: 2005 A shares adjusted in terms of point position for the 2006 is a good starting point, in 2006 there will be a strong rebound in A shares. Taking into account the QFII participation in efforts to increase the split share structure reform, as well as smooth, we expect that by the end of next year, the Shanghai A-share index to reach 1,400 points.
I have a few to judge for next year: 1,06 years, China's economy is still expected to continue to maintain strong growth (although growth will slow down), GDP growth is expected in 2006 will reach 8.6%. Recently, a European fund manager said to me: "The Chinese economy is like the movie" Speed "in the bus,. If the speed is less than 50 miles, a bomb would explode, therefore, must be allowed to keep this car speed, or else would be car crash. "2,2007 to fulfill WTO commitments, China will open a number of industries, first of all is the need for value-added tax reform, foreign and domestic enterprises into 24-25% tax rate and the possible abolition of the 5% of the sales tax rate will help upgrade some of the company's performance. 3, high energy and commodity prices means that the pressure downstream manufacturers will not be eased, must be gradually absorbed in the business model, this part of the increased costs. 4. The second round of the Shanghai real estate bubble in Shanghai real estate market will bottom out in 2006 in the second half began to pick up.
China International Capital Corporation - next year, the biggest risk facing China's economy comes from the lack of growth momentum in external demand, particularly in interest rates may bring a sharp slowdown in the U.S. economy. The overall performance of large-cap stocks will be next year, a slight increase in stocks in traditional industries will have a significant rebound opportunities. The risk must be noted, tradable stock market may not be able to enhance the value of equity investments, if the management of listed companies of poor supervision and punitive measures against violations not tough enough, full circulation of the stock market has the potential to bring greater investor risk, especially in full circulation in 2005 increased the magnitude of the valuation bubble in a clear negative impact on small-cap stocks is self-evident. If next year's large-cap stocks share price stabilization, A-share market is expected to resume in the first half issuance and listing of new shares, and from the new shares, and investment opportunities in mergers and acquisitions will continue to emerge.
Guotai Junan - 2006 new from the old presence of institutional investors make more looking forward to IPO after the resumption of investment opportunities. Although still insist in 2006 on the economic slowdown, but the A shares attractive incremental, PE level has full integration with external markets. From the dividend yield reflects the return on investment level, the domestic market, slightly lower than the Hong Kong market, but higher than the United States, South Korea, Japan and other places of the market, A shares, H shares of the smallest spreads are at historic levels, A shares the market is no longer floating in the air hanging river. 2006 A-share market turnover will continue to decline, the market will inevitably concentrated in a few hot spots on the plate. Thus, in 2006 the subject of alternative investments, the scope should be reduced, moderate concentration of investment. Has been implemented from the effects of the share reform of view, the greatest benefit should be the QFII. QFII will be second only to the Fund's major strength of institutional investors, their investment is still huge room for improvement on the QFII market trends should be a high priority.
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