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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Source: Guangzhou Bandung Author: Ling Xue-wen
Stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen this week, after a recent show shot up after continuous accelerated upside down trend, Zhou K line of both the income out of a long upper shadow with a "hammer-type" Yin K line, a record volume of both the amount of days; of these on the Shanghai Composite Index opened this week, to 2103.82 points, after hitting a high shot up Thursday to 2206.51 points, with the record high of 2245.43 points, just one step, by the strong stocks sharply diving and profit-taking pressure, this week index data later this week shocks have worsened, and long-short the differences increase, and eventually form a trend ascribed to drop this week, the corresponding market turnover reached a record volume of 251.231 billion days.
From a historical experience, the amount of days is often accompanied by sky-high price in order to build a stage Quotes of the top of the area. As in 1999 5.19 Quotes of the 1756 points, 2001 Quotes of 2245.43 points in 2002, 1747 points and 1783 points in 2004, the above-mentioned historical Quotes of the stage are often accompanied by high volume days. But this lasted up to 18 months-old bull market whether they should be equally great escape "astronomical amount of days" to build a stage at the top of doom? In my opinion, the answer to this question must first figure out "Heaven quantity" standards. We should say that an active market for trading volume reflects the state of a dynamic target, and there is no strict distinction between the standard amount of days, especially in the market structure has undergone major changes, if we could simply with the Historical Market as a basis for judging a bit too one-sided. Of course, I do not intend to negate the volume for analysis was an important reference Quote of the meaning and role. Referential meaning, in May this year, the acceleration of rally, also appeared in the phenomenon of the amount of transaction days, weeks turnover of 229.257 billion Shanghai market level. However, after nearly three months since the market in the box to continue after finishing the continuing rise in bullish interpretation. Therefore, the turnover of 251.231 billion level this week, whether as "the amount of days" is not to determine whether the peak of the main criteria Quotes. In my opinion, due to cash in some institutions, and by the end of the pressure of settlement funds, together with technical amendments to the requirements of Shanghai and Shenzhen after the recent broad market, after continuous accelerated upside is indeed the region has entered the record highs, the market a bit more cautious attitude.
Judging from the recent disk, after a continuous rise, the Shanghai Composite Index facing a record high of 2245.43 points, this powerful psychological and technical pressure, profit-taking pressure was significantly enhanced in recent trading day of a large area stocks drop The phenomenon illustrates the short-term market risks enormous. Market confidence shaken by the recent rise of the incentives was mainly a huge North Star, China Merchants Energy Shipping, the Port Group, China Unicom and other popular indicators for large stocks diving, a great blow to sentiment. Entering this week, I also repeatedly stressed that the process is running high in the market should be an appropriate change of strategy and a good grasp of rhythm Quotes, and further optimize the structure and the proportion of positions: one for the continuous accelerated upside and a huge variety of cumulative gains realized step by step to take strategy to lock in a profit, on the other should pay attention to the region at a high level to maintain a prudent and rational to avoid the blind pursuit of high operating, but to start the next phase of investment Quotes layouts, we must actively tap the market valuation of the core assets and has the potential advantages of varieties .
From a macro perspective, the just-concluded Central Economic Work Conference presented next year's economic work in eight major tasks: to strengthen and improve macro-control, to maintain and expand the good momentum of economic development; adhere to the development of the rural economy as the focus, solid progress a new socialist countryside construction; adhere to in order to save energy resources and protecting the ecological environment as an entry point, and actively promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure; insist on raising the capability of independent innovation, accelerate the construction of innovation-oriented country; adhere to the implementation of the overall strategy for regional development and promote the healthy development of urbanization ; adhere to deepen structural reforms and speed up the formation of implementing the scientific concept of development of the institutional mechanisms for protection; insist on mutual benefit and win-win opening-up strategy to raise the level of opening up; adhere to people-oriented, and constantly promote social harmony. The character name of the general secretary said he would continue to strengthen and improve macro-control, maintaining the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies. In related news show next year, the government's macroeconomic regulation and control focused mainly on investment and production to prevent the cyclical fluctuations caused by volatility in the financial level, to prevent fluctuations in the field of material production through the financial sector volatility, spread to the community. It is worth noting that, due to the recent shortage of raw materials and processing costs rise, the national oil has also started to rise. Expected that the Government could further strengthen macro-control efforts, it may form a systemic risk for the investors still have to be vigilant.
The year is approaching, investors should focus on next year's investment in the layout. I recently spoke about the next stage of stock selection ideas and standards, stressed that the selection of individual stocks should be more emphasis on value. Measure of whether the company has a listed value of investments, or whether the stock is undervalued standards, I think we can measure the following five aspects: A, the company is in China's economic re-industrialization and commercialization of the core industries, economic trends and China have completely related to the main industry, in which the industry should represent the structure of future economic development of leading industries; B, constitute the basic stability of company's share capital and major shareholders have a clear increase in market value of the capital, operational goals; C, the company operating performance ranking in the same industry; D, investor QFII, funds and other institutional investors, mainly the stock supply and demand is basically stable. E, the current stock price is relatively low historically.
