Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-05-16
Source: Shanghai Securities News
Institutional change is the A-share market will radiate a new dynamism in the rapid economic growth, significantly enhance the profitability of listed companies against the backdrop of long-term trends still look good.
Guotai Junan research report that: Quote of the three situations that may arise
Decline has been a fait accompli, and now need to be concerned is the market how to understand this policy signals, and how it will interpret afternoon. Currently identified are: the background is now no doubt that the bull market, the market is still excess liquidity, the current valuation so that rational investors uncomfortable, but said that the market does not have full bubble convincing and policy aspect of the honeymoon period with the market have ended, but there Shenmeipilao bull market, that is the great bull market has to adjust. In this case, the market will have three possible expectations:
The first situation is: the market does not care about this policy measure, because the bull market has not changed the background, so this is an event risk, adjusting the exhausted market continued to rise, until faced with a cyclical macro-economic adjustment. This may be, and the more optimism, this should also be investors, the idea of thinking is normal, but as the market confronted with too many new entrants of non-rational, and now can not be so optimistic assumptions.
The second situation is: the market that this stamp duty on the incident was aimed at the stock market, the above is a "policy-top", then "market bottom" in the area? At least for now is certain is that 3000 is the bottom, many investors say the market will then fall to this point and do? This is equivalent to a 30% decline, which is a serious cyclical adjustments, but the macro does not support such a decline in the background, liquidity does not support. This case, the market still has room to fall, perhaps in the 3300-4300 between points wide shocks.
The third situation is: the market view that the present policy or for care of the market to cool speculation, the market does not destroy the atmosphere, and in order in a relatively safe place to launch stock index futures, stock markets are not intentionally suppressed. So, the market rationally down, and then the timely introduction of stock index futures, this should be the future for the market to continue to hit new highs offers greater power, and make the style of the market shifted to blue chips, the highest probability.
Ping An Securities research report that: long-term pattern is difficult to change for the better
The present day, about 3,000 billion transaction amount calculated on the rate of stamp duty on transactions to 3%. Daily paid stamp duty on transactions of up to 18 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2 billion. So every month from the stock market more than outflow of capital more than 20 billion yuan, equivalent to a monthly release a big cap name. However, relative to the current market of about 1 trillion yuan of the bond size, as well as a day more than 300,000 securities accounts to the newly opened markets of new capital supply, the rate of increase of the market capitalization of the substantive impact is still relatively limited.
So far this year, the management has repeatedly taken raising the deposit reserve ratio or the increase in interest rates tightening control measures, but little impact on the market, each measures adopted, but they also become the market opportunities to accelerate upward. From a different perspective reflects the current market as a whole to do more confidence and motivation is still very strong.
But for the short-term market, the face of the continuing hot market, management frequently "hit", only the stock market in May continued to reflect management's "provocative" increasing concern. The relative interest rates and raising the deposit reserve ratio, increase the impact of stamp duty on transactions on the securities market a more direct and obvious.
At the same time, the frequent introduction of control measures, but also a clear indication of management's attitudes toward the market. When the continuous number of "fine tuning" is difficult to obtain the desired results, will have some influence beyond the market expectations and more stringent regulation and control measures, and thus the supply of funds on the market, as well as more immediate impact on the performance? To a large extent also increased the risk of follow-up to market uncertainty. While the medium and long term, the continued appreciation of the yuan as well as the performance of A-share companies, bolstered by sustained and rapid growth, the market situation is still difficult to change for the better, but in the short term, the market risk faced by policy control, it is worth investors a high degree of caution.
Orient Securities report said: long-term trend still continue to be optimistic
The stamp duty rate is directly aimed at improving the regulation of the stock market means, combined with the recent turmoil in the supervision, management fully unveiled its regulation of the current overheated market, curb excessive speculation in policy orientation. In accordance with the conservative daily turnover of 300 billion per day for stamp duty will reach 1.8 billion outflow of funds throughout the year to reach as much as 450 billion. 1500 ~ 200 billion to reconsider the level of commission, the annual transaction costs of more than 2006 total A-share listed company's total profit of 389.249 billion, also exceeded its 2007 forecast of 520 billion total profits.
Transaction costs will be a substantial erosion of incremental funding to upgrade the market to promote the role of the financial side has brought substantial negative impact on the history of the two raise the stamp duty rate of the fuse sharp correction in the market. Transaction costs due to substantial increase in turnover of 300 billion yuan a day is difficult to maintain, brokerage will be injured in the deepest section. Recent gains too large but there is no real reorganization of the subject matter support to strengthen supervision of shares subject to the impact of adjustment is inevitable. Blue-chip good fundamentals, valuation is reasonable, is expected to become the market stabilizer.
But investors need not be too pessimistic, systemic change is the A-share market will radiate a new dynamism in the rapid economic growth, significantly enhance the profitability of listed companies against the backdrop of long-term trends still look good.
Gu days congenial research report that: Investors concerned about the psychological changes
Increase the real impact of stamp duty from the point of view, is to raise transaction costs of investors, trading in the current market is very active on the market has reached a point where all change hands once the retail market enthusiasm high, so raising the stamp duty can inhibit the to excessive speculation in the market is conducive to the operation of the market more healthy. Although the increase in stamp duty from 0.2% of the point of view, relative to the current effect of the stock market to make money, the real impact is relatively limited, but the greater impact is the psychological expectations of investors.
China's stock market has always been the policy of the risk of more attention from the recent frequent moves management point of view, regulatory risk is that investors should not be ignored. GF Securities backdoor contacts to conduct penalties, one can see management's supervision over the market are increasing their efforts to market some of the phenomenon of excessive speculation will have a greater impact. Therefore, the short term, the market was affected by the increase of stamp duty on re-emergence of sharp rise is unlikely, it should pay close attention to changes in investor psychology. For some early hot pursuit of excessive stocks should pay attention to its risks.
In the long run, external factors will not lead to market trends change. Previous history of the stamp duty cut have not changed the pattern of the market bear market, this increase would not affect the stock market's long-term trend.
