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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
June 5 at 11 am, just in the office have accepted "Red Week" reporter to cover the major social development of the central fiscal Weng Xuedong, Associate Dean of the stock market looking at the computer such judgments to be wound has experienced nearly a thousand stocks Monday The plunge in the morning still falling, panic sell-off to explore broader market to a low of 3404 points.
Reporter returned to the flat soon found a strong Fanchou broader market turned quickly start to end up under a shadow with a long line of bald Yang Xian, to close at 3767 points. Weng Xuedong on accurate forecasts of more than surprised by the reporter in mind not but thought: Perhaps it is because of their attitude of investors have a very accurate grasp of extreme fear in the market can be a time when maintaining a kind of "everyone is drunk and I Du Xing "calm and rational.
Why do investors will fear and greed, "Red Week": China's stock market early several "bad" have failed to stop the introduction of the pace of the bull market advance, but last Wednesday after the government suddenly raised the stamp duty dipped, the market has panic selling what do you think investors such behavior? Weng Xue-Dong: I think the stamp duty increase is not a big deal thing, but the timing of its introduction may become "the last straw breaks the camel."
In fact, the market "It's camels" itself strong in front of a few such experiences, such as raising the deposit reserve ratio, raising interest rates and so on, have not had much impact on the market. And I also understand that in raising the stamp duty that day, many investors still queuing up to buy the reason why is because the previous experience had taught him, there would sell bad stocks will make their own regret, and this created a psychological tendency see so bad but dare to boldly put buying, that tape will bounce back as before. But this time, as time goes on, after 3, 4 daily limit, the investor's mentality will change dramatically. By Monday a major Yinxian, many investors have already Tingbu Zhu, and again fell into extreme fear.
"Red Week": It's like Wall Street said, the market is by greed and fear, the two kinds of forces to push forward. But investors how to do in order to overcome such feelings of greed and fear it?
Weng Xuedong: greed and fear is a kind of human emotional state, the reason it is difficult to overcome, because among investors, there is a kind of social comparison. For example, although he was aware of market risk, high out of himself, but his friends also made money, which he was with great excitement long point, he could not help but get in.. Can actually make money is not entirely dependent on the capacity and intelligence, but also a certain element of luck. Moreover, many investors do not understand the overall market because of the cycle, do not know when the long-term hold, and when the fear, which caused the stock market not only greed, fear, psychology. In fact, this fall despite the relatively rapid, but it is still a bull market as an adjustment.
And many new investors to the bull market view is that only rise not fall, it is wrong, which fall in a bull market is also very tragic. If it went through the 1996 wave of the bull market of the investors, should be very aware of this truth. I remember the end of 1996 the stock market in the "12 gold medals," published after the crash, was followed by two large Yinxian after three daily limit, I have 5 days Peidiao of more than 50% of all funds. Although the year I was making money, but are making a little money, but in the end, the biggest in your principal when the market started to fail 10-20%, you earn a little money long back. Inside there is a decline in the rise of asymmetry, because the base is different. For example, you earn 10%, 100 thousand yuan become 11 million, but if dropped by another 10%, only 99,000 yuan, and many new investors have overlooked this simple logic.
Four mental mistake led to the decision-making mistakes
"Red Week": stamp duty arising from the stock market, "earthquake", it was BS-ing Shengmen Qi, and others nothing, waiting for a rebound. This reflects the kind of mental mistake investors?
Weng Xue-East: a study of psychology in the market just dropped, when the emotional reaction of investors quilt is the most intense. Monday that the introduction of management to appease the nature of good articles, although ordinary investors to meet the psychological, but in a sense, it will mislead individual investors the same day, after reading these articles do not sell, the results have to endure the subsequent decline in . Therefore, the government officials should understand the psychology before making the investment decision-making. The reason why the policies of investors aversion and distrust, it is because they lack management skills, or the psychological state of investors is not enough to consider in place.
Therefore, I understand shareholders grievances in 1996, I also like them, but it does not help, it is important how to do this after the hold-up. In the stock market, you have to always think of themselves as a general, while the generals, the most important thing is the decision-making. When they find out when the advent of large risks, without hesitation even in the daily limit is the correct way to ship, but few people can do that. Can be said that there are four mental mistake affected the investors a correct decision.
"Red Week": more detailed explanation about it?
Weng Xue-dong: the first major mental mistake: Mind-set too strong. In fact, the increase in the stamp duty on the day, investors still have a chance to sell the stock because a lot of stocks are not sealed at the beginning of a daily limit, not no chance of escape.
If you do not sell the first day, it can only show you determine the market problems, has too strong of mind-set. But the next day why not sell? This has implications for the second-largest mental mistake, that is, the choice of reference point is incorrect. The reference point for many investors is not a market, but their principal amount invested. Because we can not accept this "first earned after the lose" in reality, the only way shareholders holding not move. This is because investors are loath to admit that he made a failed investment. In fact, each stock is like a "psychological account" in the fall, when investors would choose to sell profitable stocks, rather than fitted the stock, resulting in "a dark horse all run away, clinging to all of which are garbage. "
The third-largest errors is the "fear of regret." Some investors also recognize that the current point and is too much, but we really have to wait until a time when decisions have been delayed, not hands-on, which is why? Because he thought he sold the stock later, if the market has gone up, he would find it hard to be, we will regret, it is to invest in what psychologists call the "fear of regret theory." The reason why people have a herd mentality and the herding are all related, "fear of regret" relevant. The securities market is a probabilistic event, personal decision-making there is always the wrong time. But as time goes by, you will find is consistent with everyone is the most secure, to be wrong with everyone wrong, this is a psychological safety, not only individual investors, institutions as well. Because of herd behavior is the least costly way, it is very easy to form the final chase on the market sell into.
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The fourth-largest mental errors are gullible so-called inside information, to find certainty. The investors reluctant to sell shares there is a reason for that is based on the so-called inside information. For example, someone tells you the stock is now risen from 15 yuan to 30 yuan, if the person is a little fame Trader, you will find this message must be credible, since he recommended the stock also rose early very fierce. Investors tend to make money thanks to a certain person, but forget that a big bull market has created you to make money. But why investors prefer to operate it according to the message? Is because the stock market is the risk of market, and investors need a certainty. With the "insider" news, his heart on the pragmatic today. However, this "practical sense" is also stuck at the top of each wave of the bull market is an important reason for investors.
Learned helplessness may lead to high hold-up
"Red Week": In fact, apart from these mental mistake you say things, and stockholders of the exchange on our view, the reason why many new investors at the market peak of 4,000 points or more, and the adjustment would rather not fitted out, is based on Quotes before the convening of the Olympic Games will not drop the belief.
Weng Xuedong: The Government has not undertaken pre-Olympic stock market will not crash, this is actually some investors overly optimistic imagination. The reason they difficult to objectively analyze the market trend is that people accept the contrary, when the information is very painful, to an intense inner conflict. For example, in buying the stock, people tend to accept only the information to their advantage, while the negative information will be systematically denied ignored, or even want to listen to the views of others, said the opposite. This is one of understanding of the relationship between the information. Generally, a person who just selective perception, the end result is that regardless of market realities, even to the last change set, he also think it is most unlikely to change when the disk. So the new investors that the market will not crash before the Olympics idea is to blind optimism.
"Red Week": We have noticed that many of the investors have been stuck, especially at the beginning of the new shareholders will feel a loss-stricken, after a few daily limit, after all had become numb, and this in terms of psychology what are the explanations ?
Weng Xue-dong: the new investors do not have experienced such a crash, a beginning would be very much horror, at the end may become what psychologists call the "learned helplessness." When the shareholders, after the formation of a certain way of thinking, once the market has changed, he will find useful information prior to seem wrong. At this time investors will have a negative attitude, that is to do nothing, shareholders do not move, such behavior is "learned helplessness." Because of his behavior in any one market are likely to suffer staggering blow, so the best way is not to act. This is also the investors stuck at a high level of root causes.
"Red Week": So for investors who have been fitted, the current should be how to do?
Weng Xuedong: In Quotes have been falling for a few days later, absolutely can not sell the stock, because it is likely to sell at the lowest price. At this point the stock as long as the continuous limit-down to open a panel, there will be a retaliatory Fanchou, when buying the case, would be a very good short-term opportunities. However, to note that, for those with larger decreases in the stock must be shipped when it Fanchou weak. If Fanchou relatively large magnitude, preferably on the same day out, you can also leave out the part of the next day. Large adjustments in the interim, cash is king is the best strategy. With cash, there will be a next time when you grab into the bad opportunities. If the shareholders do not move long-term, it is necessary depending on the specific species may be in the hands. I believe that the bull market will come back, but also a record high. But now, some investors said that this may have caused misunderstanding, they would think that since the stock market to new heights in the future, then I have now been stuck with the stock is not thrown. Sorry, the future, reaching record highs, you may not be some sort of relief in the hands of the stock, because the hot time Quotes have to change.
Stocks to temper people's character
"Red Week": a quarter of this year's surge in the number of A-share accounts, the stock market as "speed money, stupid people to" place. From a psychological point of view, if all people are suitable for stocks it?
Weng Xuedong: In addition to a handful of people nervous melancholic temperament not suitable for weak stocks, most everyone can Zuo Gupiao character. In fact, stocks of the person's character is a kind of tempering, it will let you quickly find yourself some of the weaknesses. Some people do not fit Zuo Gupiao because of his fragile nerves, such as depression and quality of portraits Lin Tai-yu, a slightly larger dynamic and static eat good meals or sleep well. In addition, it involves each person's view of money.
"Red Week": Do you think investors should be how to put right in the stock market mentality?
Weng Xuedong: reform and opening up, China's wealthy people to see the living standards of residents in Western countries, so old and would like to make money fast. In fact, if their own money Zuo Gupiao rather than loans to borrow money, state of mind will not be too bad, even quilt a moment, nothing but money-making process is long, as long as the continuous efforts to compensate for the loss will be slowly coming back. But if they are borrowing money stocks, then it is difficult to straighten out his own attitude on the stronger yen to gamble. Once the loss Fanben even stronger desire, but the more difficult the more we wished Fan Ben Fan Ben, forming a vicious cycle. People in their daily lives, many mental states are related to investment behavior are closely linked. Old in life a mistake, in the investment process will be committed. If you solve the psychological problems in daily life, effects and levels of investment there will be a great improvement. The United States in 1987, when the stock market crash, Wall Street near the counseling center is very hot, when the manipulator hands are very painful, headache, back pain, in fact, these are psychological barriers. In this process of decline, especially for new investors who may be in need of psychological or other assistance, psychological adjustment. However, I'd think that this decline has not experienced a market for people at risk is a very valuable personal wealth, with such experience and understanding, it will escape the risk for the next time you lay a good foundation.
Reporter Jiang Hong-Xiao Yu
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