Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-07-10
Macroeconomic
Tighten the string of data mixed hard song
Published financial data from the central bank of view, money supply and credit growth is still too fast in the second half is still very difficult to control.
The sharp fall in investment growth to become a powerful macro-control effects of apparent support, the momentum of overheated investment growth was significantly suppressed. But it should be noted that the accumulated growth rate of the first 8 months of growth is still growing too fast range, so the further implementation of macro-control measures in effect remains to be seen.
As of August, the cumulative trade surplus 94.65 billion U.S. dollars, in August trade surplus of 18.8 billion U.S. dollars the month, May is already 4 months since the fourth consecutive record high, but also China's first trade surplus of 28 months. Increasing pressure of RMB appreciation in the exchange rate continue to rise at the same time, the central bank through open market operations to maintain the possibility of a stable money market interest rates quite large.
Macroeconomic situation should be said that a mixed record. Tightening effect of the investment has been reflected, but the next stage in the control of excess capacity, to prevent the export out of control and the control of excess liquidity in the regulation of the chord is still hard to relax. The total investment scale of control is certainly the main direction of macro regulation and control, but the thrust of regulation is to be achieved through structural adjustment GDP growth is sustainable. Only exports and investment growth to the growth in consumption, the sustainability of economic growth will ultimately be realized.
Market
Negative factors stabilize the positive factors reunion
Valuation: The overall valuation levels into the normal range, the structural underestimate the opportunity still exists. From the historical data, the current valuation has entered a reasonable area, the overall market valuation is no longer cheap, attractive greatly reduced than before, an overall rise in the power needs have been expanding in the market and re-accumulation. The internal structure from the point of view, in order to iron and steel, petrochemical, power, coal, construction machinery and transportation sectors, represented by blue-chip stocks of the PE on average 8-15 times, from a global look undervalued.
Performance: China better-than-expected growth to be excavated. From all A-share listed company's mid-year report results shows that on average net profit year on year growth rate of apparent recovery in the third quarter of 2005 reversed three consecutive quarters since the average net profit growth rate year on year decline in the situation. From the SSE 50 and SSE 180 Corporate Average gross margin levels, despite the same period last year, but still declined in the chain increased significantly. The overall performance of listed companies were better than expected.
Although the medium-term growth in net profit was better than expected, but it should be noted that the increase was primarily derived from cost control during the period, as well as investment income, subsidy income, operating income growth, operating profit is still on the decline, the vast majority of the industry is no increase in income Lee's phenomenon is still evident.
As of September 15, there are 335 companies released quarterly results notice, in which the pre-growing the company 91. Notice to the third quarter, more than 50% increase in the profits of companies concentrated in the machinery, real estate, non-ferrous metals, steel and transportation industries. Iron and steel and transportation industries, surged since the beginning of the basic underperform as a structural underestimation of the region.
Policy: Innovation to enhance the market value of investments. Quotes of the interpretation of the first half of the promotion is more valuable to underestimate the share reform and other reforms driven, we believe that the next stage of policy measures will continue with innovative features to enhance the investment value of the total market. The next stage has a significant impact on the market power of the innovative event will include the distribution system reform, stock index futures and margin trading and other aspects.
The direct beneficiaries of the reform of distribution system will be forthcoming by the end of October in the Mainland and Hong Kong-listed ICBC at the same time, which is expected to become the world's securities in one fell swoop the biggest ever IPO; margin trading business started, because of their help or have implications for the role of , the market volatility will increase, the market's valuation of the emphasis will also be strengthened, the stock valuation will become a long-short scramble important reference standards; stock index futures floodgates, due to stock index futures and financial derivatives transactions a substantial proportion belongs to arbitrage, hedging derivatives and other indirect demand, usually accompanied by a large number of underlying assets of the transaction, will lead to an active spot market, trading volume increased. The arbitrage function accelerated the transmission of information between the current period, will further improve the stock market pricing mechanism.
Investment Strategy
Both underestimate the growth of blue-chip based on the main line
Since the beginning of the stock market from the interpretation of view, although one of the foundations supporting the bull market --- the attractiveness of the overall market valuations have fallen considerably, overall market size needs to increase opportunities for the expansion of the process of re-accumulation, but the internal structure of , to iron and steel, petrochemical, power, coal, construction machinery and transportation sectors, represented by blue-chip average PE of 8-15 times, from a global look at the low valuation; from another basis for supporting the bull market - performance growth point of view, mid-year report shows a good overall performance of listed companies in the market is generally expected, we believe that the overall performance of the second half than the first half of the growth rate is difficult, but in the long run, China's economic structural adjustment, will bring added value in various industries提高. Overall, therefore, we believe that the market is in the fourth quarter of negative factor for clear, positive factors to be reunited more optimistic environment, while institutional innovation will enhance the market's overall investment value of the bull market will still be able to further interpretation.
Thus, in the next phase of the stock market, we believe that the strategy may be temporarily ignore the attenuation of the troubled drive the valuation is still focused on the concerns of its growth, when there is a reasonable basis for the valuation and performance growth to be sustainable under the prerequisite of grasping living adjustment of opportunity and actively intervene to hold. Note that for sustainable growth in mining, get rid of lack of growth companies.
