Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-09-02
Author: Guangzhou Bandung
Macroeconomic overheating in investment, while there is insufficient domestic demand also poses potential problems, that is, Lengrebujun phenomenon. This complex background, it may give the stock market a special mission.
1, the main policy of the Game
The stock market may be a pawn in the management of macro-control. The first quarter of this year, the macro data came out, one-quarter GDP growth reached 11.1% in March CPI growth rate reached 3.3%, largely published data and market forecasts or less, the existence of macroeconomic overheating situation.
However, macroeconomic overheating in investment, while there is insufficient domestic demand also poses potential problems, that is, Lengrebujun phenomenon. As we all know, a country's GDP by investment demand, government investment, import and export composition of the net four carriages, if the phenomenon of over-investment was suppressed, and the demand is obviously inadequate, extremely rapid economic growth rate down. Therefore, policy responses, the need to adopt a moderate regulatory policy, while in the control over-investment, but also keep up with demand growth.
It is this complex background, we believe that management may help the stock market to carry out economic regulation and control curves.
First, the tightening of excess liquidity is strong measures to curb overheated investment, one of the booming stock markets will be able to effectively absorb liquidity. At present, the bull market to make money continues to stimulate the effect of a large number of savings into the stock market.
Second, the large blue-chip return flows in the increasingly heated, including China Petroleum, China Construction Bank, China, PICC P & C, the Shanghai hinterland, Beijing Capital International Airport, CNOOC and other giant fields, have plans to return to A shares. No doubt that these mega-huge demand for funds. In fact, the stock market as a policy tool has been a precedent. As early as the beginning of the creation in the stock market, the stock market to give "as the state-owned enterprises turnaround service" task.
From a certain point of view, the current bear stock market of China's industrial transformation and upgrading of part of the cost of reform to undertake a mission to absorb excess reflux. Therefore, we believe that unless certain special circumstances, or else management will not be easily introduced significant policies regulating the stock market.
Second, when the introduction of stock index futures will be
In the stock index futures-related policy, management in less than half a month's time, complete with the launch of financial futures of the three regulations, normative documents, namely "futures company pilot approach to financial futures clearing operations", "Securities Futures Corporation intermediate description offers operational trial "and" the futures regulatory indicators of corporate risk management pilot scheme. " It is noteworthy that the above three documents are clear from the release date of implementation, reflecting the management of financial futures in the promotion of the action is quite rapid.
In the upcoming "51" holiday in the timetable for launch of stock index futures may be further clarified. So, the market will give rise to change in the situation do? We believe that management has repeatedly reiterated the purpose of a stable release, so the introduction of stock index futures should not have a strong impact on the market. In addition, the weight index stocks rose significantly in this round of Quotes in the backward, to a certain extent, the blockade of the market room for adjustment so as to stabilize the market center of gravity. On the whole, "51" before and after the market is still in the relatively stable.
Third, the main money game
Taking into account the index is at a relatively high level with the upcoming stock index futures and other factors, some of the main body throw some of the lucrative chips to lock in profits, or to shift the focus of defensive configuration varieties, but the overall position has declined relatively early stage. New funds, although some species have begun Jiancang, but the intensity Jiancang not. In general, agencies have adopted "The Hills Tiger concept of fighting a" prudent strategy, even in the heavyweight competition, the same is not deep wading.
