Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-04-28
I mentioned several times in two years ago, visited China Shanghai Composite Index and the Nikkei technical graphics are strikingly similar views, and pointed out that the Shanghai Composite Index will be effective Powei 1300 points. From Shanghai Composite Index is currently on-line chart, we will clearly see their nearly four years 1300-1780 is effectively a big box break. Well, from the Nikkei market trajectories we see? Which should give us all of their learning and to pay attention? This is what I would like to conduct in-depth research and told the investors.
We first look at the Nikkei index in Tokyo, Japan Market On-line trajectory and the Shanghai Composite Index on-line path comparison.
From the above-mentioned technical charts point of view, on-line market, its trajectory has a very similar shape, the Japanese Nikkei index from 1985 to reach have a big bull market high of nearly 40,000 points, after the plunge. Drop in performance due to the unsustainable price bubble burst. After falling to form a multi-box, Po Wei appreciation of the yen after the completion of the theory under the influence of factors decreases. Shanghai Composite Index rose in 1999, rose to 2245 points, down, down because one stock bubble, the second factor is the state-owned shares, down four points formed after the 1300-1780 box, by the end of 2004 Po Wei, the current continues to box body theory into decline, and the unfinished box theory of decline.
Contrast to the Sino-Japanese stock markets we study found that common ground focus on:
A big bull market in technology, patterns are formed after the big drop box, and then box Po Wei;
2, the common causes of stock decline concentrated in the bubble, after the formation;
3, in the decline occurred in the process of collapse of the phenomenon of big securities companies;
4, in the box Po Wei, the Government have carried out policies to stimulate, but all little success, it is difficult to reverse substantial.
5, Po Wei in the box after the currency appreciation were the factors, while the realization of appreciation of the yen led to a downward adjustment even after the stock market volatility; yuan appreciation is expected though, but still did not materialize.
6, two years ago, the overall price-earnings ratio stocks are relatively high for high-risk markets, and some individual stocks or even thousands of times the price-earnings ratio occurred, resulting in the stock market in two places, the current price-earnings ratio are incorporated into the overall Japan-China stock market is relatively reasonable, Japan is only just entered earlier, the Chinese A-share market price-earnings ratio is still in the process of adjustment.
Although the two markets have a certain common factors that exist, but the study found that the difference of focus on:
1, the Japanese stock market for the tradable market, market economy, higher, while the China A share is a share-trading environment;
2, the Japanese economy declined during the apparent leveling off, while the Chinese economy has maintained steady growth;
3, Japanese per capita GDP in the world, while China's per capita GDP is very small, reflecting the Chinese market will bear, or investors is relatively larger than the actual loss to Japan, although there is no absolute decline in its big.
4, the Japanese form a clear GEM, while China has only the SME board, and is non-standard or non-independent.
5, Japan's stock market a longer history, and China only 15 years old.
In summary, although at present we see the Nikkei index on the Shanghai Composite index had obvious technical similarities, but because of the market system is different from the stock sufficient liquidity are different, we can not be equivalent to that China's securities market will appear Nikkei index did decline. But one thing is the box in the theory of technical analysis theory, is common in the stock market, and that the current Shanghai Composite Index, after a clear Powei box, there is the theory test requirements of target position, so many uncertainties under the influence, we believe that there the probability of the trend of the Nikkei is also very great.
