Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-03-12
Almost all of the investments friends all know the value of investment, which in fact rely on the so-called fundamentals of investing in a simple argument for the distinction entirely on short-term market supply and demand changes to the speculative nature of operation, that is distinct from another kind of speculation argument. However, many investors feel that the value of friends, we invest in this one there is no way to compete with a variety of big money, big money because of the operation of a team is behind the attack in its strong research capacity, while the average investor does not have the such a condition.
I also believe that before such a conclusion, but now has begun to change, because the larger environment is gradually changing.
The market is now 15 times the average price-earnings ratio has dropped to around 1,000 points in the last year, when only 13 times, so difficult to choose the stocks that have been greatly reduced. Of course, that return that the key or the specific practices, especially because we do not have a strong R & D efforts, we must find a way to compensate for this.
The key question is how to reduce the scope of more than 1,000 of the stock picking, how do you know there will be significant changes in the performance of companies. The answer is simple: by reading the newspapers.
For example, after this year's revision of the "Shanghai Securities News" In this respect, to do very prominent, and from time to time publish some in-depth analysis of listed companies, articles, or even the next three years would be the company's operating conditions studied. These in fact the research results of researchers, but has done some compression only, but for us ordinary investors is still very helpful meaning, so I called it "From the beginning of the value of reading newspapers investment."
Certainly a lot of good stocks, of course, not all published in the media, or described in the newspaper is just one part of it. However, the amount of our funds of funds also are not as many as 100 million since the number plate is therefore to choose the one or two companies have been enough, for most investors, friends, the hands should also retain a portion of the short-term use of the funds feeling in the drilling market.
Of course, not a detailed analysis of the newspaper every one is our favorite stocks, the final confirmation of the stock must also have the following four conditions.
Conditions 1: Relative price is not high
Example, researchers estimated the performance of a share in 2006 from 2005, jumped 0.30 yuan to 0.60 yuan, which should make our eyes light up, but first we have to look to the secondary market price. As we all know, good stocks and bad stocks difference is that the secondary market price rather than on performance on. Even the best performance is hard to say as long as its stratospheric stock price is still good stocks. If the stock's current price is 9 yuan, then its expected price-earnings ratio has reached 15 times, the future rise in stock prices may not have the space for other companies well. Such a relatively high stock price can not be said to be the most appropriate choice. Of course, if due to tape or other factors makes the stock price down, then we can still continue to follow in order to intervene at the right price for the timing.
Score is the relative low price of the stock market, a substantial increase in future performance is not yet clear, or not believe, in other words the unit's future growth is not reflected in the market.
Of course, researchers concluded there might be discrepancies, but at least this possibility is quite large, so as long as the relative price is not high, we have reason to continue analyzing the unit.
The second condition: the credibility of the conclusions
Some researchers will put the article is too right to spend a good share of the Elite rice is good, but we will not easily believe that the conclusions. I have expounded in the column "The reason that counts," the truth, which is very useful here. Fellow of the "conclusion" to look at, if not a nice "conclusion" is not going to attract us to see this article. But beyond the "conclusion" is more important is to look at other than the researchers draw "conclusions" before "cause."
For example a company's performance is expected to "double", which is a researcher studies the "conclusion", this beautiful "conclusion" to attract our attention, if the current stock price does not reflect, then, would be lifting up our appetite , we will pursue "cause." If According to the report, the company this year's "capacity to double the size" is the main reason for doubling the performance, then we must come in person to the "cause" analysis to determine the credibility of the conclusions of a researcher, or simply arrive at its own new conclusions. Among these we will consider the following questions: "capacity to double the sales of whether the synchronization can keep up with," "product sales prices will not fall", "raw material price hikes will," "industry policy will not change", etc. and so on. Some researcher will also be analyzed in the article, we might be used as a reference.
