Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-09-13
Markets tend to rise in the course of quite a mixed bag, some lack of fundamentals supporting the companies often will also have better performance, coupled with some companies about the reorganization of assets is expected to often become the main focus of financial speculation. But once the market into a consolidation, the Company will be the texture of the main reasons affecting their performance, as the adage goes, "when you re-up trend, or when the heavy," a high absolute value of companies in the market is expected to be in a stronger rebound in the mainstream. In recent years, market trends, we can see that underperformance class companies to become the focus of selling, value or investment value is relatively more prominent companies chasing the darling of the market in the future market movements in the value of investment is still expected to become the market mainstream investment philosophy. If the market into a consolidation, from the perspective of the absolute value of investments to seek safer investment products become more necessary.
From the company's net assets to the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), etc., should be able to see what kind of pricing models, whether there are some flaws. In the current market, we also note that under the Black ------ Scholes option pricing model (BS model) calculated with the actual price of Baosteel warrant a far cry from the application of theory in practice often encounter real trouble. CAPM model and the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and the reality gap between the behavioral finance has also led to the generation, and produce behavioral asset pricing model (BAPM). But no matter what kind of model from the start, the company's stock price volatility around its intrinsic value is the same law, even if a longer period of deviation, but in the long run rate will not deviate too far. From the company's intrinsic value point of view, mainly in the following methods can be used as a basis to judge. First, the company's replacement value. Some of the company's assets such as land, housing and so often not considered when pricing the effects of inflation, and some machinery and other fixed assets due to technological progress will be accelerated by the devaluation. Replacement value of the company's intrinsic value can be used as an important index, because of data availability, often taken to the company's net book value of assets as the company's replacement value. Replacement value of the company and the company's market value can be seen as the gap between the company's intangible assets. If the company's technical superiority, brand value, monopolize resources and so on. If a company's share price deviated from the replacement value too far, then the value of the long term return is inevitable. Replacement value and market value of the ratio between the Tobin Q can be expressed. In addition, the company's profitability from the perspective of analyzing the company such as the intrinsic value, equity value is the discounted value of future cash flows. DCF model (dividend discount model) due to lack of accuracy for the estimated future cash flows has been widely criticized, but it is undeniable that reflect the inner thinking of DCF is above reproach. DCF model, the future dividend capacity and return on investment is to consider the point. Under the guidance of this idea, we learned from the company's growth, the dynamic point of PE, as well as the absolute value of PB relative prominence of the company, excluding the performance year on year decline in the company, environmental decline than the performance of companies and industry boom a downward turning point of the company's .
