Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-05-22
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: In the context of the influx of hot money, if not start with a fundamental, but merely restrict the inflow of funds into the stock market, not only is not conducive to solving problems, they may even just boiling soup Yang.
In the context of the influx of hot money, the fund lighten up, limiting the central enterprises of funds into the market, and even issuing new shares to increase the intensity and the pace of reduction of non-tradable shares can only be regarded as only boiling Yang Tang move. Because foreign hot money very large (7.2 more than one trillion U.S. dollars), while smaller domestic capital markets, hundreds of billions of dollars of hot money into China's stock market can be set off waves of a big wave days. Regulators must be to create the stock market Manniu solve the fundamental problem from the start.
First, on management's current strategy adopted by an overheated stock market is not perfect
China's capital market is small, the current market value of only 2 trillion (equivalent to less than 300 billion U.S. dollars) worth several billions of dollars of hot money in the market could set off large waves. The management is not effectively contain the case of hot money, just to lighten up the fund, and guide public opinion, domestic personal funds out of the market, limiting the central enterprises enter the market strategy, there will be a bargaining chip in the hands and gradually transferred to the overseas investment capital is tantamount to the boiling soup Yang .
Even if the new shares issued by accelerating the small and large non-non-flow of hot money is also a large-scale drop in the bucket.
Therefore, this column that the current regulators have taken to reduce domestic capital into the stock market's individual response to the impact of hot money is not great. On the contrary, could accelerate the process of hot money Kongpan China's stock market.
If you can not take strong measures will be hot money out of stock, then the stage of overheating in the market is at least inevitable. (In fact, to take strong measures will be hot money out of the stock market problem is not just hard to do, but also in the present can do so).
Second, regulation of hot money have a full understanding of the complexity of the
International hot money is different from the past, the main domestic funds, whose main feature is hidden, flexibility and liquidity, with rich experience in the national policy of confrontation against the national regulatory capacity is far stronger than ordinary domestic capital.
Of course, national governments can use the "arbitrary" to amend the relevant system, hot money to be a fatal blow (such as the Thai government has taken measures to impose 30% margin). However, in the current national increasingly open capital markets today, its negative effects and long-term effects are quite large, and even more losses than gains, had to make the regulators think twice before they act.
From the stability point of view, generally less than exceptional circumstances, the State is difficult to use capital controls to use strong means of punishing hot money on the market interference. In the long run can only be through the improvement of monitoring system to enhance liquidity in the short term regulatory system and regulations to gradually limit the impact of hot money.
So overall, we state the complexity of the process of monitoring of hot money should be fully recognized. In fact, the hot money problem is that the domestic regulators in recent years can not be avoided. And the hot money problem is that the international community generally have to face global "problem."
At present the state must monitor the process and results of hot money to make a precise judgments is difficult and can only process of dynamic observation of the whole thing.
Third, the market has its own laws
The degree of openness in the economy is increasingly clear today, the market has its own laws, any policy measures are only in line with the internal laws of the market situation to guide and regulate the market development, but not contrary to the laws of the market.
Currency appreciation in Japan during the period, thanks to tough restrictions on excessive yen appreciation and the capital control policy, distorting the market's own internal rules, but lead to a greater degree of market revenge, eventually leading to the formation of the slow and rapid asset bubble burst.
A small appreciation in the currency against the backdrop of hot money to strengthen the regulatory regime, improving regulatory restrictions on the capital market system, speculative behavior, rather than the frequent use of administrative intervention, the big stick before we can truly prevent the appreciation of the fundamental period of speculative hot money right China's stock market shocks.
