Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-05-30
Source: Shanghai Securities News Author: Jia Bao-Li
The confidence of investors frustrated in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 hit its biggest weekly decline in
Significantly lighten up the fund are suspected to induce the sharp decline in the market this week, the fuse.
In the event of a fell sharply again yesterday after the Shanghai index has fallen the week, has reached 5.63%, Shenzhengchengzhi weeks cumulative decline was as high as 6.38%. Data show that the main culprit leading to the sharp decline in broad market is the high number of pre-or Awkwardness of Fund, which means that the fund is too high for this part of the stock of the premium and the market is very concerned about the trend of the future, may be have lighten up.
Statistics show that, as of June 30, 2006, the proportion of the stock positions of more than 80% of the Fund 50, in more than 90% as high as 24. This part of the Fund's net this week, has suffered a very serious losses, the net most of the units fell more than 6%. The most obvious is that easy to Fonda's positive growth and strategic growth, which two units of the Fund's net this week, with declines of 9.53% and 9.77%.
Fund 2 Quarterly Bulletin, as at the end of the second quarter, easily Fonda positive growth and strategic growth of the stock position is 94.79%, respectively, and 94.31%, 2 Awkwardness of the Fund's top ten are the same as 9, but the proportion of each holder of shares slightly makes a difference. This nine stocks are Suning Appliance, G Maotai, large commercial stake, G Tebian, G OCT, G heavy machinery, G National Security, G ring, G Xia tungsten.
This week, all nine stocks tumble, and spared. Where, G ring, G Xia W, large business shares and G Tebian weeks cumulative declines of 19.49%, 15.22%, 13.34% and 13.04%; In addition, Suning Appliance and G of the National Security cumulative decline since the past two weeks have also more than 15%.
In addition to these two funds, there are the fund's largest holding Hongdu Aviation, G Ely, G Zhong Lian, G Tasly, G Bao titanium, G in the sets, etc. are very alarming decline in the recent past, this part of the stock had In the first half of their chips for a large number of funds hold an enormous floating surplus, but recently became part of the fund has a substantial net decrease.
The industry believes that this part of the pre-speculative stocks sharply higher prices far beyond their value, the valuation is no longer attractive, which is the main reason for selling the fund. In addition, the macro-control policy is expected to uncertainty, as well as in the second half Quotes concerns have also accelerated the behavior of the fund's recent lighten up.
12 market value of listed shares has shrunk more than 900 billion
Since July 5 since the Shanghai and Shenzhen securities markets, more substantial adjustments, some market participants believe that the recent stock market weakness and the IPO issue size and speed than expected has a lot to. The statistics also showed that only the shares in the work from the first international date, this year, 12 IPOs during this period, in order to calculate comparable caliber, A-share market value decrease of 92.8 billion yuan in circulation.
According to Wind Information statistics, since only the shares in the first public listing of International since June 19 have been officially landed 12 new shares A-share market, raising the total 41.521 billion yuan of funds in order to market the first day closing price, accumulatively A stock market increase in the total market value of 784.514 billion yuan, negotiable market value of 29.317 billion yuan.
The figures show, June 19, Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share market's total market value of 4.092982 trillion yuan, circulation market value of 1.500562 trillion yuan; As of yesterday, the two cities the latest total market capitalization of A shares 4.564373 trillion yuan, circulation market value of 1.437047 trillion yuan, an increase of 471.391 billion yuan, respectively, and a decrease of 63.515 billion yuan. Net new shares factor in more than one month's time, A-share market float of less 928 billion, a decrease of the total market value of 313.1 billion yuan.
At the same time, new issues have also become increasingly accelerated pace of the trend. This week, there are Cantonese utilities, Jiangshan chemical industry, HongRun construction of three companies online issue, which next week into the online subscription of new shares to five, namely, beam software, Huafeng Spandex, Ruitai science and technology, Air China and the East Chinese co-founder.
Hai Tong Securities analyst, said the Kingdom of light, in the issuance of new shares to resume within two months after, IPO size had more than 40 billion yuan, close to the year 2003, the size of the IPO. This year, the total size of IPO financing will most likely突破千亿元mark, far higher than the IPO fund-raising history, the amount of up to 56.383 billion yuan the year 2001 level. Pressure on the capital market is expected to increase the recent stock market correction of the important reasons.
In addition, the new shares subscription also makes the higher rate of return a lot of money spent his time in the primary market. China International Capital Corporation to a new strategy report, IPO floodgates since, given the size of subscription funds, a success rate of such factors, the new shares at an annualized rate of return generally around 10%. Among them, single IPO returns generally 0.3 to 0.6% from the purchase to the time period listed on the first day is generally ranging from 10 days to two weeks or so. If only consider the purchase cycle funds, IPO annualized rate of return as much as 20%. Thus, despite the market liquidity is still abundant, but relatively speaking, the secondary market to maintain oscillation of the recent performance and high-risk very difficult to attract a market valuation of IPO subscription money market.
Plunged 7.42%, waves of selling pressure in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index hit its biggest weekly decline in history. This is also the last two months, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index closed out the third week Yinxian root length. In addition to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, the hard-hit this week, there are small plates index. The index is up 10.58 percent decline this week, also has created a new record.
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As the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index covers a wide range and no new shares, "inflated" effect, so that the index drop could be more truly reflect the current market situation.
In addition to the Shanghai Composite and the cities of B-share index, the Shanghai and Shenzhen to the major indices are making history, a rare 8 Lianyin. As the expansion faster than market expectations, leading to significant outflow of funds inside, the two cities are the focus of the broader market down in shock. Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, hit a small board index or a single-week decline in history.
Small board index fell to a record week
Although the Shanghai Composite has the heavyweight turns to support the market, but remained as high as 5.53% decline in the week, setting the year's second-largest weekly decline; Shenzhengchengzhi, Shenzhen Composite Index-week declines of 6.38% and 8.35%, both its biggest weekly decline this year; the only cross-market of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, weekly drop of 7.42 percent, the highest since the index's biggest weekly decline since the launch; small board index of the performance of the more tragic week, 10.58% of the weekly decline was unparalleled in history the most.
Is known as leading indicators, known as the Shanghai and Shenzhen fund index, weekly decline, have also more than 5%; on the SSE 50 Index SSE 180 Index-week declines of 5.69% and 7.01%; Shanghai and Shenzhen B-share index fall a week slightly relaxed, a week declines of 3.71% and 2.01%.
From the turnover point of view, decreasing trend is clearly, the two cities this week, total turnover of 123.9 billion yuan, into the last week continued to be reduced by about 2. A reduction in turnover reflects the lack of market power to do more, investors wait and see attitude by concentration, in people waiting for the so-called rebound in the broader market farther weak.
Weak market confidence
The brutality of the major indices fell, from one side reflects the fragile confidence in the market. In the tightening macro-control, expansion of the pressure increase, broad market technical difficult of circumstances, regardless of institutional investors or individual investors, the views of the Quotes are moderated.
Expansion from the dominant point of view, small plates this week, the most dramatic response. Since August 2 small board has accepted the three day listing of new shares, and the next week, continue to have four small plates index forthcoming, expansion faster than the market thought. Therefore, the small plates of "crowding out" in this week has been most significant.
Implicit expansion of the market is also beginning to show disgust. TX Investment Consulting firm, according to data provided by the current plan has been published but not yet implemented additional companies, there are 40 companies issue additional stock had already fallen to the lowest price, accounting for as much as nearly 40%.
Awkwardness of the week performance of some institutions are quite weak, indicating that institutional investors have begun to "shake." Tungsten in high-tech, G Lu gold, building stock, G Jean, G Southern sugar, G Modern, G decreases in the week a huge variety of gold. The Awkwardness of high agency "multi-Wheeling" as the broader market continued to drop new incentives.
From the hot side, a week of extreme shortage of hot spots. Although the G drive Shanghai Jinfeng has some local stocks active, but very heavy selling pressure above the Qian Liu. Pre-strong stocks such as non-ferrous metal stocks downward spiral, Po Wei, a number of recent resumption G-Unit is also posted sharp right situation.
Adjustment pressures still
For the current market trends, the views of institutional investors seem not optimistic. Shen Wan Institute of view, and the prices into a direct result of the adjustment of supply and demand imbalance. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway, Industrial Bank, issued a specific timetable yet to be determined, but the market is expected to be issued quite a number of large capitalization stocks. Management sought to increase the proportion of funds of institutional investors into the market, margin trading pilot in August in an attempt to balance supply and demand play a role, but there is no obvious oversupply situation improved.
Huatai Securities also believes that the lack of hot spots as the market funds face pressure, as well as mid-year report pressure to perform the existence of other reasons, there are short-term market adjustment pressures. Investors still need to guard against some of the early stocks gains brought about a huge investment risk, has not effectively stabilized in the market is still not suitable for large-scale pre-do more.
Face a basic balance of funds
While many consider that the main reason for the current market decline in the stock market funds face stretched, but according to a joint stock of the newly released research report that the 2006 financial year, the stock market supply and demand in balance.
According to a joint stock is estimated that in 2006 a market capitalization of the year by the dominant expansion of aggregate demand and the implicit expansion of both the composition of the total size of 134.2 billion shares, 524.4 billion yuan, and August 2 in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets both equity and market value of more , this year is equal to the size of re-expansion of a trading market in Shenzhen. From the supply side of funds in 2006, the year the supply of funds and fund distribution channels, QFII investment quota to obtain, insurance companies, brokers, corporate annuity, social security funds, trusts and other institutional investors, securities market scale. Under the current distribution arrangements and the speed of calculation, the total supply of funds total 542.8 billion yuan.
The report that the 2006 financial year in balance, excluding hidden the scale of expansion, the explicit expansion of scale of 340.2 billion yuan, with the supply of funds during the year compared to the total size of 542.8 billion yuan is still a surplus of 202.6 billion yuan;, including the implicit nature of expansion, the expansion has grown in size to 616.2 billion yuan, more than the total supply of 542.8 billion yuan of funds during the year, a funding gap of 73.4 billion. Thus, in 2006 the fund balance is fragile and short-lived.
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