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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Source: Changjiang Securities Research Event Description
Company's stock bolted the way, from April to the lowest closing price of 4.65 yuan rose to 9.84 last weekend, closing yuan shares more than doubled. The market of non-gold alloy transformer market in high-growth expectations and confidence of high-speed electrical performance of growth is expected to be the major driving factor in rising stock prices.
Event Comments
First, the non-gold alloy transformer is indeed a good energy-saving products
Amorphous alloys also known as metallic glass, is a non-crystalline atomic structure of alloys. This alloy is a molten state, the alloy in micro-seconds, the speed of cooling to get. Now usually iron, nickel - iron and cobalt-based alloys, ferromagnetic amorphous alloy materials, other than the known magnetization and demagnetization is easier, and its magnetic properties have been identified in the material more easily within the magnetic reversal. As the amorphous alloy materials, excellent performance, using it as a core material of transformers have a good energy saving effect. According to statistics, the amorphous alloy transformer no-load loss of only 20-30% S9-type transformers. Insiders have estimated that one year, compared with S9 amorphous alloy transformer transformer, the saving of 4,000 yuan.
Secondly, we believe, non-gold alloy transformer is a prerequisite for promoting the use of the first customers to purchase consideration is Bijiaxiaoying, and only in the traditional transformer of raw materials - oriented silicon steel has always been maintained at a high price under the premise of higher prices ( Of course, the more good energy-saving effect) in amorphous alloy transformer appears to have any purchase worth it. In the past, oriented silicon steel prices do not rise significantly when too much of this one-time investment cost of new transformer is not attractive. The future-oriented silicon steel is maintained high, now it is uncertain.
Secondly, the amorphous alloys have a certain use of transformers. Transformer energy mainly in the hope to save transformer no-load loss, but still be able to control the direction of lower magnetic flux leakage transformer load losses. Amorphous alloy transformer main principle is to reduce the energy load loss, while the load loss the same as the traditional transformer. We understand that the rate of distribution transformers in general the load level of 40% of urban and rural level of 10%, therefore, amorphous alloy transformers in Rural most economic value. With conventional silicon steel transformers than the price, the market can accept the price of amorphous alloy transformer magnification standard is generally around 130%.
Thirdly, although the confidence Electric is the industry's leading, but we think it does not have a monopoly advantage, amorphous alloy transformers the changing nature of the industry chain have taken place in the upper reaches of amorphous alloy transformer core raw materials are amorphous alloys, amorphous alloys are non-core upstream raw materials crystalline alloy strip. As the hardness of amorphous alloy strips of silicon steel is almost 5 times, the traditional transformer is used to cut silicon steel enterprises have no way of equipment, cutting amorphous alloy strips, in order to produce amorphous alloy transformer is required to specializing in the production of amorphous alloy core businesses to purchase core. Confidence in the past there were only one has a stable electrical supply channels enterprises can get the strips (confidence Electric is the only one with the world's first mass production of amorphous alloy strips of enterprises - United States AlliedSignal (Alliedsignal) Corporation (hereinafter referred to as "AlliedSignal"), signed a supply agreement for the enterprise), and the ability to produce amorphous alloy core processes and equipment. Therefore, most companies can only watch the distribution transformers "heart" sigh. However, this year in February, Beijing Machine Union for the amorphous Technology Development Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "the machine-supply") of the amorphous alloy transformer core production base for a project of production. 6 amorphous alloy core production lines, annual output capacity of 3,000 tons, which makes the confidence Electric amorphous alloy core of a monopoly market structure has been broken at once.
In the machine together for the amorphous metal Co., Ltd. is Japan's sole agent in China, the company officially began in October 2005 sales of amorphous alloy strips and has a transformer with amorphous alloy core production capabilities. The latest information, to provide the machines for the strip joint Hitachi Metals has acquired 50% of AlliedSignal's stock, becoming the largest shareholder of AlliedSignal and AlliedSignal sales of products to Hitachi Metals name. In other words, confidence Electric in fact become a "son" of the agent, while the Alliance for the machine has been a "father" of the agent.
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In our view, the machine and the ING Joint for the emergence and development of amorphous amorphous alloy transformer for China's market has extraordinary significance. Domestic all those who wish to enter and have entered the field of amorphous alloy transformer business in the future of raw materials are no longer insurmountable barriers (rather than technical or industrial access threshold threshold). One in the past in the industry, leading companies, the loss of monopoly advantage in the future may not be able to maintain the rapid growth of the imagination.
Fourth, the amorphous alloy transformer market can not expect too much, it's just the way energy saving power system of a power system the way a lot of energy saving, product and technological innovation is a consideration, while not a panacea In fact, "Managing down loss" power system has been widely accepted as the most important way.
So, even if we purely from a technical point of view, amorphous alloy transformers may not be optimal. We understand that the way include:
1, the traditional transformer to change the core structure (rather than changing the material);
2, the use of secondary equipment, such as distribution transformers and reactive power compensation device to reduce line losses, to achieve energy-saving purposes In addition, according to experts, the transformer must be balanced energy-saving low-voltage distribution system to reduce line losses, reduce voltage fluctuation improve the quality of power supply related effect, must not be viewed in isolation distribution transformer energy conservation.
Fifth, the amorphous alloy transformer market still faces a series of policy uncertainty in the risk of
We only see that some regions in promoting the use of amorphous alloy transformer, but the state will put the use of amorphous alloy transformer specific preferential policies. Such as: learning foreign governments to take energy-saving projects to encourage scientific research, production subsidies, tax exemptions or rebates to purchase energy-saving products are investment subsidies, low-interest loans and other preferential policies is still unknown. To our analysis, the national electric power system, or if you want to put preferential policies to encourage certain types of product development must take into account two things: First, whether new products, complete technical and economic alternative; 2 is a new industry of the original industries the impact and influence.
Sixth, the preliminary conclusions
As the amorphous alloy transformer as a new energy-saving products whose price and performance limitations, therefore, we amorphous alloy transformer market, "cautiously optimistic" attitude; mainly due to amorphous alloy transformer industry chain pattern is changing, and we prospects for the development of the confidence the same electrical "cautiously optimistic" attitude, for the first time does not make investment rating on the company's performance forecast and rating to be given after the field research.
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