Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-11-22
Present in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, active species to a large extent related with the share reform, stocks will change it into an important channel for investors to arbitrage. To this end we have to be completed by the end of 2005 and the resumption of the share reform of listed companies as samples, to explore the G shares resume trading after the investment opportunities. Comprehensive market data sets, for G shares of the Company's investment strategy can be judged from the four parties to do as a whole: (1) the majority of G-share companies, the first day of the sale should not be a mistake to choose the decision-making; (2) short-term shares held by G, the cumulative yields of less than -1% likelihood of living large; (3) involvement of new investors in the stock to resume trading after the G Unit, the best time to visit the intervention on Day 3 after the resumption; (4) Single only the characteristics of G-cap stocks can not be exactly the same characteristics of the overall trend, individual events still need to be dealt with individually.
Split share structure reform is undoubtedly China's securities market is currently the largest hot spot, not only provides a legal person shares of listed companies a substantial value-added opportunities, and the distribution among the shareholders have to pay right after the price so that the natural ex-dividend stock price, so that the investment value of the outstanding shares of a significant part of the increase A shares of the company or even a substantial discount compared with H shares of the situation, some companies adjust stock prices after the share reform program straight Fengting board.
Species is currently active in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market to a large extent with the split share structure reform of the stock will change it into an important channel for investors to arbitrage. Analysis of the characteristics of stock reform the company's overall trend, we completed the end of 2005 and the resumption of the share reform of listed companies (hereinafter referred to as "the reformed companies" or "G-share companies"), as a sample, to explore the resume trading after the stock investment opportunities.
May 9, 2005, Taurus Energy and three other listed companies to publish the first batch of split share structure reform announcement, declaring the domestic securities market split share structure reform of the official launch, in the subsequent six months, a total of 427 companies to reveal their stake in -trading reform program, which 232 companies in December 31 to complete share reform and resume trading. As the share reform in the process of secondary suspension system, the process of share reform in the securities transactions with non-continuity, we did not order the first time, length of suspension as a research starting point, but chose to begin after the completion of share reform, so the analysis samples were limited to 232. Analysis of 232 G shares of the company's stock to resume trading trends, we can roughly determine the reformed companies have investment opportunities.
1, stocks resume trading day of the company changed the whole arbitrage opportunity exists From the 232 shares of the company in the trend characteristics of the first day of resumption point of view, quite different companies, both real increase in the day (considering the payment of price after the stock price ex-dividend factors, the same below) to achieve 32% of the G Huntoon (600487.SH), G-day fully Tianquan resumption ZTE (000063.SZ), also resume trading the first day of the actual decline of 18.7% of the Will Technology (002016.SZ) and Precision Technology (002006.SZ). However, for 232 G-share companies as a whole, all the first day of G-share companies on average 2.5% real increase, which reflects the demographic characteristics: If the date of registration of investors in the stock's closing price by buying shares of stock reform, then the In the first day of resumption at least get an average return of 2.5%. Therefore, the whole, shares resume trading on the first day to change arbitrage opportunity exists.
G Unit should be followed by resumption hold or sell the stock, must be faced with another decision-making. In this regard, we first analyzed after the resumption of the super-G Unit, the short-term trend (one-day hold). Statistics 232 G-share companies closing stock to resume trading the next day or find resume trading day average growth of -0.3% the company, slightly higher than the first day of resumption. Therefore, as a whole, the stock to resume trading the next day flat on the first day closing price and the possibility of greater opportunity to resume trading the next day's profit has declined markedly.
From the turnover situation, resume trading activity relative to the first day of trading, 232 valid samples, the day average turnover is 8%, higher than the average turnover resume trading the next day (4%) to twice the stock to resume trading After the active transactions of decline.
It is noteworthy that a considerable number of factors affecting stock prices, both company-wide factors, but also the overall market level, the impact of factors such as changes in the macroeconomic environment, the securities regulatory policy adjustments, market participants access to, disposable capital of the fluctuations. Therefore, only eliminate systematic fluctuations in the securities market in order to truly reflect the "resumption" incident stocks and the impact of reform company's share price movements, that is commonly used in event study abnormal returns (or excess returns). Statistics found that G-share companies resume trading day, the average abnormal return of 2.6%, slightly higher than the overall real rate of return, indicating G-share companies to go to win the day in the stock to resume trading on the market.
Second, holding G shares resume trading shortly after the possibility of large returns -1% Only analysis of the first day of resumption, the next day's earnings situation of G-share companies sufficient to show the short-term profit opportunities, which we take stock to resume trading after 10 trading days (two trading weeks) to evaluate the point, by analyzing the cumulative returns for each day rate, to assess the G-share companies to hold the possibility of short-term profits. Analysis to the first day of resumption as a starting point, the cumulative rate of return is 0, the next day cumulative yield of -0.3%, and so on.
Reflect the company's stock to resume trading after the G-Unit on the 10th cumulative rate of return volatility curve, you can find the following features:
(1) stock to resume trading on the 3rd row, after a whole fell slightly, but to 3, the cumulative rate of return of -0.62%, the initial judge of "resumption" of the incident, there is a slight over-reaction of stock prices.
(2) from the stock to resume trading after the No. 4 began, G-share companies noticeable rebound in the initial judgments of "resumption" of the over-reaction began to be revised. Although the amendment process, the trend has been repeated, but to 8, the cumulative rate of return of basic back to the starting point.
(3) In section 9, 10, G-share companies once again start to correct the initial pre-judgment is the rapid rise of the amendment.
G-share companies to participate, quit with the convenience also depends on changing hands is active. Which we will resume trading after the G-share companies turnover as a secondary indicator to analyze the analysis of investors to participate in G shares the enthusiasm, to supplement the assessment of characteristics of the short-term trend. Figure 7 reflects the changes in terms of resumption after the turnover, in just 10 trading days, for restoration of G Unit, the first day of the company's turnover by 8.2% to 2.2%, still higher than the Shanghai and Shenzhen the average level, so you can explain: The G shares resume trading passion With its rapidly cooling, but the G is still the market shares of the common hot spot.
The above two sets of data analysis results, the investment strategy of G-share companies can do the following aspects of the overall judgments:
(1) most of the G-share companies, the first day of the sale should not choose the wrong decisions.
(2) short-term holders of G Unit, the cumulative yields of less than -1% likelihood of living large.
(3) The new investors in the stock to resume trading after the involvement of G Unit, the best time to visit the intervention on Day 3 after the resumption.
(4) G-cap stocks have characteristics alone can not be exactly the same characteristics of the overall trend, individual events still need to be dealt with individually.
Third, the trend analysis of quite different factors related to a total of 2 1 [2]
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