Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-04-02
In the stock restructuring carried out more than 200 to complete share reform has been more than 100 resume trading after the market reform of the price of stock has been basically have a relatively well-defined expectations. However, the reformed companies have remained the focus of attention is currently on the market, how to grasp the concept of shares of the company's investment opportunities to change, especially for shares of the company in the latter part of how to operate, it is worth our attention. Therefore, it is necessary to change for the stock after the resumption analysis of the performance of individual stocks.
1, the first day of resumption has shown a large short-term arbitrage opportunities fade
Pilot experiment in reform of shares resume trading after the company there exists an obvious arbitrage opportunity, especially in the pilot companies. From the statistical data shows that, in addition to the first batch of pilot companies, in early August to complete share reform and the resumption of the listed company, stock to resume trading on the first day is greater than 0 real increase, and mostly over 10% on the first day reached 32.5% real increase in the maximum, minimum is also more than 8%. This has created an arbitrage opportunity, that is, the day before the suspension can be purchased for resume trading after the earnings are basically a minimum of 10% or so.
However, with the awakening of the market, this arbitrage opportunity soon start to disappear, mainly in shares before the suspension had reached a very high level, in advance of the price of the room to make up lost revenue. Rolled out a comprehensive reform, especially after the stock is actually stock most of the company in the company's share price before the suspension has been high above fully reflect the right price, profit margins, leading to resume trading up after the fall but was actually negative, the performance of momentum for the fall. From late October, shares of the company stock to resume trading on the first day to change the actual earnings are basically negative, the actual revenue also -10% of majority. Therefore, the reformed companies have ex stock to resume trading on the first day, arbitrage opportunity not only to subside, and the risk is now greater. For the special theme of speculation investors share reform, the ex gone before is a better choice.
Second, the actual revenue the first day of resumption large margins, the company and the opportunities
Through analysis and comparison, ex post real return on the first day more than 15% of the listed companies, in the next 5 or 20 trading days, earnings are basically radiate a negative, very few can continue to receive benefits (the only company in western Shandong G In Ex-trading day after the date of 20 despite some gains, but then began to decline); and diluted the first day of the actual revenue is less than -15% of the listed companies, in the next 5 or 20 trading days, but basically have a certain amount of revenue can continue to loss of a very small number (G MIZUDA Although the ex-dividend trading day after the date of five continued to decline, albeit small, and then began to rise, is still less than 20 trading days).
Ex-stock reform in the first day of the actual rate of return is too large, is a manifestation of investors, reflected the transition of operational thinking, so for some time in the future conduct of such a transition would be amended to reflect the performance on the stock performance of the with the first day of a completely different trend. This is a practical for us to provide investors with a relatively good arbitrage opportunity, that is, the first day of the actual decline in the ex over a large period of time in the future there is a good chance of rising.
Third, long-term investment but also selection of individual stocks
Stock reform of the price of the program is just one opportunity to the long-term stock price performance lies in the value of its own stock, and stock price change on the pros and cons of the program is not a large share reform after the completion of the performance of individual stocks clearly demonstrated this.
Reform have been diluted from the stock five trading days than stocks, although the majority of the first stock company to change texture are good, but the trend apparent polarization, rising and falling stocks each half of the basic, long-term trend also does not show a special common, but according to fundamentals and the market hot stocks continue to follow the pre-reform trend. A typical such as the G and G Tianwei Nanhua, the highest gain in 20 trading days up to 68.36% of G Tianwei, while the lowest G Nanhua drop 23.48%, and the coincidence is that they are equally against the price of the program 10 to send four .
A general analysis, in the share reform has been basically formed a clear expectation, long-term investment or to pay attention to the basic situation of individual stocks; for special opportunity to capture share of funds to change the future, Ex-stock reform should pay attention to the first day of the risks and opportunities.
