Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-11-06
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: The fundamentals have been difficult to explain the continued rise in the current market, a large number of funds created by individual investors into the market-driven bull market, individual investors, institutions and the Government of the game is to promote a major factor in the current operation of the market.
Fundamentals have been difficult to explain the continued rise in the current market, a large number of funds created by individual investors into the market-driven bull market, individual investors, institutions and the Government of the game is to promote a major factor in the current operation of the market.
First, individual investors the right to speak and gradually master the stock market
April household renminbi deposits declined by 167.4 billion yuan, up by more than 228 billion yuan. In addition, the current daily number of accounts continued to remain at 30 million households the amount of days the level of the continuous influx of large number of new retail stock market, and which seems very cautious in the old retail, and some of the recent Takong Quotes.
Shenyin research report pointed out that in April inflow of approximately 2,500 billion in funds, institutional funds only 1 / 3, about 830 million (mainly for the new fund raising and the old Fund of purchase) and the remaining 160 billion yuan more of Since the individual funds, personal funds and institutional funds has reached a 2:1 ratio. 11,12 In the last month, the two cities over from institutional funds Jiucheng.
Just a few months, A-share market has basically been the mainstream of new funding for conversion to an individual-based. Especially in the last three months, the amount of personal funds into the 3,000 billion yuan, this situation shows the phenomenon of popular stocks are growing.
The new features of individual investors do not care about the basic fundamentals of listed companies, while the recovery to a certain individual stocks, have any organizations to intervene to rely on hearsay with the village has become clear that this part of the shareholders of the main operation means, which exacerbated the market's speculative atmosphere.
Second, agencies, in particular foreign investors wary
Institutions, in particular the Fund's most recent round of Quotes is obviously not ready. It seems from the current situation, the Fund's lighten up on the plate grasp of rhythm and did not pay close attention to this phase of the pulse of the market, while private equity funds were also on the market to maintain a relatively cautious attitude.
The bull market is an important force in promoting the - outside the hot money is also single-handedly built their own confused nothing seems out of the bull market from. Close to hot money of the investors that the stock market go up again so that those who invest in stocks of hot money can not afford the pressure of rising too fast, will choose an escape. In addition, some data show that the recent "hot money" entering the density has been reduced, capital entry of the most intensive period of time in October last year, during the period in March of this year, but now is gradually slowing. And in the past week, international investors appear rare large-scale withdrawal of China concept funds. According to U.S. research institutions, the fund research firm Emerging Markets Investment Fund (EPFR) within the framework of the global investment funds nearly ten thousand only follow-up survey, in the second week of May, the international investors to EPFR China Equity Fund, the withdrawal of the 574 million total U.S. dollar funding, which is of such Fund since the first time since mid-January this year, there is a net outflow phenomenon.
The market was overheated and indices not stop the rapid rise promotion, A shares steadily higher valuations, apparently so that agencies, in particular foreign investors on the market at a loss.
Third, the policy will ultimately determine the market direction
This column believes that management and the corresponding interest group is to promote market development, core strength, and policies on the market impact will be decisive.
On the one hand, the Government and the management want to be able to continue to develop long-term bull market, long-term development of capital markets is still the main tone, while the use of the capital market to digest the problem of excess liquidity is also a good choice of management.
At the same time the sustainable development of capital markets is clearly beneficial to the massive injection of state-owned assets, large shareholders of non-tradable shares, as well as state-owned enterprises in high-priced high cash distribution, etc. This is also in line with management's policy intentions.
However, on the other hand, the current market, the influx of a large number of individual funds, the market capital structure is very unstable and that large institutional investors and promote the development of policy thinking is not the case. Another rapid rise if the market, excessive overdraft future growth of listed companies, on the one hand may prompt a large number of bubbles produced, leaving risks to the market turmoil. More importantly, in the majority shareholder being the non-tradable shares can not be fully tradable equity incentive there is no large areas where, over wild bull market may lead to early mortality. Could go a longer one to two years in the bull market run in the depletion of energy, which is management's wish to see.
Therefore, we believe that management are only two options. Either in the market continues to rise when the wild through an effective mix of policies, such as the introduction of index futures, disclose a capital gains tax and other policies and measures the signal to suppress the market, a direct result of market adjustments. Or in the market madness up the process, continuously through the cooling control means to the market, maintaining market has long been Manniu trend. But the second approach from the current situation, the effect seems not obvious.
Game three in the stock market context, we believe that the future market trend will be more complicated, in particular, a large number of investors enter the market and crazy mood to do more what the market will be pushed to how much it is difficult to accurately estimate.
However, the decisive force still in the hands of management, at any time the direction of the impact of policies on the market, would be fundamental. Although the benefits are impeding the policy to face the market with great determination and suppression of the main factors. However, as more and more difficult to control the situation and a large number of individual investors into the market, in order to maintain long-term development of the greater good of the bull market, the situation will quietly change.
