Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-04-22
From our first cover since the company and the external environment has changed, according to a recent re-visit the company's situation, we model some of the assumptions have been adjusted; adjusted joint-venture factory in 2007 amount to 64.8 thousand interrupter, 2008 82800; .. slightly lower in 2007 Merlin Gerin brand interrupter sales to 22000, according to the comparable price of the company raised its price is similar to the brand; increase in 2008 Merlin Gerin brand sales; .. According to Gao side and low-end products, a different, slightly lowering the cost of Glory brands, Merlin Gerin brand to increase the value of the cost estimate.
To improve accuracy, we have measured the spin-off brand and Merlin Gerin Glory brand interrupter of future profits, which is the focus of this analysis, specific information, please refer to the body; based on the above analysis, expects 2006 earnings 0.092 to achieve yuan; in 2007 to achieve earnings per share of 0.401 yuan in 2008, achieving earnings per share were 0.736 yuan; the maintenance of the first report made by 13.22 ~ 15.63 yuan's target price.
Production and product structure prediction .. from October 26, 2006 the first report to the present, the company's operating environment and other aspects of certain changes have taken place, therefore, we model the profit forecasts and assumptions are also part of the corresponding have been updated; first of these is a joint venture using the interrupter circuit breaker factory the amount of adjustment. Circuit breaker according to a joint venture plant operations and new product testing progress, we adjust the 2007 joint-venture factory to use interrupter circuit breaker number to 64800 in 2008, the use of 82800; based on the current progress of the approval, which was slightly lower in 2007 Merlin Gerin sales of the brand interrupter to 22000, according to the comparable price of the company slightly raised similar brand Merlin Gerin brand interrupter price, please refer to the Glory of specific brands and Schneider brand interrupter part of their profit forecasts.
The changes in forecasts about the price of
According to the report in October last year, Snyder estimated the possible pairs of brand strategy, we will be Glory brand interrupter interrupter with the Schneider brand separately measured; Taking all factors, we believe that future prices of Glory brand interrupter will be basically to maintain the current level, due to the impact of load switch, while the increase in sales will be slightly lower average selling prices; Schneider brand priced according to our comparable companies, such as ABB and Siemens similar products to estimate, due to Schneider for the new entrants to predict than the comparable price of the company's comparable product price slightly lower, but according to Schneider has always taken the brand pricing strategy, its price will not be substantially lower than the price of ABB or Siemens, we estimate that the price difference of 15% to 20%.
In the October report, we forecast the company's cost was based on 65,000 yuan / ton of copper into 2007, has been a rapid decline in copper prices, the company is currently a need for about 1,200 tons of copper, with the increase in production volume has also increased copper will be the company under a greater impact; we not changed the company's cost of copper was mainly due to volatile price of copper, we can not guarantee full-year copper prices will drop like a month of such performance, for careful considerations , we follow the average price of copper declined slightly last year to predict full-year copper forecast for mid-year adjustments will be established or when the copper price trends in a timely manner.
Yield: Joint breaker plant is the most important demand-pull factors that .. we previously reported under the Schneider brand Glory brand and to conduct a comprehensive cost estimate, for reasons of precision, we estimate Glory brand and Schneider were the brand profitability; .. Po Light brand sales, including domestic sales, joint ventures within the system circuit breaker plant and Glory overseas sales of three parts, of which a joint venture plant circuit breaker is the most important pull factors; .. part of the domestic sales is expected to increase in 2007 compared with 2006 14%, the basic equal to industry average growth; in 2008 increased 18%, respectively, 15.8 and 186 thousand; .. Glory overseas markets within the system mainly refers to India and other Third World countries; .. in India, for example, due to of its electricity infrastructure, poor electricity investment has grown rapidly in recent years, driving, including interrupter power products, including demand; based on the principle of prudence, we are on overseas markets in accordance with the projected 9% growth rate.
Circuit breaker plant is a joint venture Glory brand the most important driving factor in sales growth. From the sales perspective, in July 2006 a joint venture plant began operations in a very short time, reached a stunning increase in the scale of production and sales; sum up different information, we believe that circuit breakers joint venture plant in 2006, after years of rapid growth, 2007 will pay more attention to internal integration, so "Schneider Glory" brand of circuit breaker production growth will slow down; in 2008 will continue to maintain this trend, but growth will be slightly higher; in accordance with the second half of a joint venture plant in a single circuit breaker monthly production scale we predict that in 2007 demand will reach its interrupter 64800, equivalent to an average monthly production of 1,800 units circuit breaker, with basically the same as in 2006; 2008 interrupter demand 82800, an increase of 27%.
Schneider possible pairs of brand strategy, the Glory brand in the domestic market is the main end user, the price of acceptance is relatively stable, from the product of the original company, continues to the original production line, so even if the completion of the acquisition of Schneider, the interrupter Room prices will remain basically stable, but considering a joint venture of domestic electricity consumers on the brand awareness level is higher than purely domestic brands, so the price may still be slightly improved; take into account the new production in some load switch, while the load switch due to hence the relatively low cost compared with conventional vacuum interrupter prices are lower, which is the average price levels downward pull; combination of the two factors, we expect prices in 2007 remained stable, declined slightly in 2008 slightly recovery.
Interrupter primary raw material costs, including copper and ceramic shell as well as other metals, porcelain shell is relatively stable prices, copper prices continued to decline since the beginning of the year, but based on careful considerations, we have only a slightly lower copper price forecast, specific adjustments will be years, or when the trend established in place; cost reduction also reflected in the increase in copper and other usage, this cost savings are considerable; addition, since the company's production capacity has not completely released, with the increase in production, sharing a single products such as depreciation and the cost of power is also decreasing.
Schneider demand for the brand interrupter has two parts, one of its other high-end circuit breaker works within the system, including Square D and other existing businesses and potential use of Merlin Gerin brand, a joint venture plant; 2 system, carried out by Schneider the high-end sales; the current vacuum circuit breaker within the Schneider system, the number of plants are more scattered in Europe, the Americas and Australia, many countries, the demand for vacuum interrupter Although significantly lower than the domestic market, but because the price is much higher than company's original product prices, profits are quite attractive; according to Schneider, the overseas demand for vacuum circuit breaker factory to make this part of the interrupter demand is expected in 2007 13000 2008 25500;
Prices, we have similar products based on comparable companies to estimate, as new entrants, the company's comparable price than the comparable price is slightly more likely choice, from another point of view, according to Schneider has always taken the brand pricing strategy, its price will not be substantially lower than the price of ABB or Siemens, we are 15% ~ 20% calculated on the difference.
As the Schneider brand interrupter will remain in Glory production, the cost of high-end interrupter chamber will be higher than the original product, we are the main costs of the situation according to possible adjustments; Interrupter the main raw material, the ceramic shell is currently a considerable proportion of imported products and products with the Siemens source of consistent, we follow all the imported porcelain shell to measure; copper and other cost estimates as calculated in accordance with the beginning of price Giga; personnel, depreciation and other costs are to double the estimates.
Based on the principle of prudence, and then calculated on the basis of the above, for the cost of further amplification.
Based on these forecasts, made by Schneider brand interrupter profit forecast, the following table.
Profit forecast
Based on the above analysis, expects 2006 earnings 0.092 yuan to achieve; in 2007 to achieve earnings per share of 0.401 yuan in 2008, achieving earnings per share were 0.736 yuan; over is forecast to be a conservative forecast, we will be based on fluctuations in copper prices and acquisitions and new product research and development progress adjust the earnings estimates.
Valuation
We maintain the first report made by 13.22 ~ 15.63 yuan's target price.
