Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-03-14
In January and December of the stock market basically identical, in the key technical resistance point and turbulence in the vicinity of choice, after they break up and fully shows the current stage of market entry excited.
But subject to multiple factors, in January the market turbulence intensity is much higher than the early stage have not been able to the broader market has finally closed above 3,000 points, breaking into an integer. Between shocks, the market has maintained a super-popular, Stock Quotes is still very hot. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (4.82, -0.18, -3.60%), and super-heavyweight, as well as the real estate section has been dropped.
Vertical view, the current A-share market is no doubt in a serious overbought technically, the investment climate on a very crazy, there is a huge bubble on the valuation of non-rational stage. However, when global stock markets once again the vision alignment, horizontal comparison, we will find: A-share market are, in fact with the world! , The bubble theory, stock index futures, the role of administrative measures and market needs of Dialectical.
3000 near the face of today there are serious differences between A-share market, we need great wisdom - management should be committed to maintaining "Sangong" principle, investors should be sure to avoid over-estimated the risk of underestimating the variety of species.
Future market evolution of two things will happen, the Government must take the initiative to lower the temperature, technical adjustments to requirements, the stock market peaked around the back of tighter monetary policy, bad effects of factors such as the formation of resonance, the market will start mid-term adjustment, the adjustment of the limits of the Shanghai Composite near 2300 (ie, the largest decline in about 20%); second is around the stock market continues to improve, the external capital market actively, the market performance of listed companies increased by more than expected, that the Government lower the temperature, and so have limited impact on liquidity tightening, the market will quickly to adjust or maintain the high strength shocks, near the spill in 2500 will be the support level. We tend to interpret the second method.
Whether the valuation differences, or accumulated too much foam, or industry, changes in the economy, A stock market stock market is facing the fact that structural adjustment. Therefore, to avoid overestimation of the species, to grasp the potential of underestimating the variety is the future of the main investment strategy.
We focus on the representative varieties of the market trend is far stronger than the average level, it is recommended to continue from the annual performance of the asset reorganization oversold stocks, securities industry, RMB appreciation, the Olympics, 3G, manufacturing industrial upgrading, consumer promotion and consumption growth, self - innovation, energy-saving environmental protection, new materials, two tax merger, the new accounting standards, equity incentive and equity into the commodities futures market linkage to choose themes such as investment products.
Recently two reports, we are all optimistic about the long-term bull market in the same time, phase adjustment of the unexpected to adopt a cautious view.
However, in December and January of the stock market basically identical, in the key technical resistance point and turbulence in the vicinity of choice, after they break up and fully shows the current stage of market entry excited. Of course, in January the market turbulence of the intensity is much higher than in December, and January have not been able to tape finally closed above 3,000 points, breaking into an integer.
Figure 1 shows the Shanghai Composite entire month between points at 2600 points, 400 points -3000 within the wide range of shocks, during which one-day rise to several hundred points up or down, but from the Japanese portfolio of K-line term, high diamond plate pattern variable looms! We predicted 2300 would the region near the callback delay in the arrival of the afternoon, will take up later analysis.
Although the index in January in order to wide the main shock, but still far from record highs above the 2245-point run, it enables the market has maintained a super-popular, specifically manifested in the hot stocks Quotes.
Chart 3 shows that A-share market in January before the 50 individual stocks or standings, or are at least 65% (including the initial public offering and listing of shares of stock reform recovery), while 50% or above are more than 100 stocks. Which re-stocks shine, clear the city backdoor listing shares, EMC Trust successive record breaking daily limit, while the re-Zhongwei Guomai so obscure stocks suffered from sharp appreciation trend.
We focus on the securities industry, RMB appreciation, the Olympics, 3G, manufacturing industrial upgrading, consumer promotion and consumption growth, independent innovation, energy saving and environmental protection, new materials, two tax merger, the new accounting standards, equity incentive and assets into such varieties, trend is also very strong, led to focus on individual stocks belong to the species.
In contrast, last month, deduction earthshaking "elephant dance" of the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China finally appeared in the decline in the value of return to occupy the forefront of standings. In addition, as the Government to "strike hard object" of the real estate industry has finally emerged in stocks as a whole lower limit of the scene.
2007 indexes are hard to predict, but the performance of individual stocks no less than in 2006, is a clear point of view of this column, from the disk in January of view, this feature is revealed beyond doubt.
3, the relevant market dynamics: A-share market is basically synchronized with the world From the vertical perspective, just 12 months time, the index rose two-fold, with a total market capitalization of 10 trillion yuan, single-day turnover of 100 billion yuan, accounts to increase the number of crazy, open-end funds frequently tens of billions of subscription A-share market, are undoubtedly now in serious overbought technically, the investment climate on a very crazy, there is a huge bubble on the valuation of non-rational stage.
However, when global stock markets once again the vision alignment, horizontal comparison, we will find: A-share market are, in fact with the world! Therefore, the "big bubble say", "non-rational to say" can for the time being off also!
Hong Kong China Enterprises Index: Since the early speed up too fast, state-owned enterprises in January index was significantly weaker than the Hang Seng Index, the Dow Jones index, the whole month in 9466-point fluctuations -10,878 points, to close at 9602 points, down 6.86% from the previous month. Dahon valuation differences, as well as by the A-share market impact of state-owned enterprises are more subtle movement of the Index.
The Hang Seng stock index components: in January the Hang Seng Index fluctuated between 19350 points -20971 points to close at 20106 points, up 0.68% from the previous month, month K line with long upper and lower hatched Yang Cross stars, is also the third consecutive eight months Yangxian the highest index and closing index of the re-rewrite the historical record.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average: the Fed's interest rates remain unchanged, investors are optimistic sentiment on the U.S. economy, while the listed company's annual financial report, inspired by the Dow Jones index rose continuously shocks, and often rewrite the record. Monthly index fluctuations at 12337 points, -12657 points to close at 12621 points, up 158 points and closed out the first seven months straight Yang K Line, "a sharply bullish market before the election," the history will repeat itself? So, will indicate the direction of global stock markets, while A-share market for the super bull market has brought an excellent external environment.
CRB Composite Index: bottom pick-up, fell 0.52, to close at 394.37 points. Crude oil fell to 51 U.S. dollars once Powei sharp rebound in the vicinity to 58 dollars, sharply higher corn again and maintained at 400 U.S. dollars above the order, the Fund is a foreign addition to copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, and other varieties Qiangshibugai, gold remained at 600 U.S. dollars high. Bull market in commodities futures market in general is not yet over, but the substantive theme of fuel ethanol with corn as the representative of the agricultural futures, there may a super bull market of the signs.
Background: "belongs to God, Caesar" in the face of people make things difficult for the Pharisees, Jesus to a "Caesar's, it should be returned to Caesar; God, it should be returned to God," easily resolved.
3000 near the face of today's serious differences between the presence of A-share market, we also need this kind of great wisdom - whether management or the investor.
There is no doubt that, as a decisive impact on the world still belongs to the emerging economies like China's economic development, reconstruction after the A-share market are fresh for all matters, management needs to rational objective and forward-looking, investors need a keen a golden opportunity to seize the investment capacity. In general, we hope that "Mr. Market" in China's capital market to play a decisive role.
In particular, management should not rely on their own judgments, often taking administrative and regulatory methods, lead to "wish, though good, ineffective" situation, but should improve the monitoring mechanism, a clear law enforcement efforts to focus on the fight against violations of "Sangong "principle of the phenomenon, encouraging efforts to improve management of listed companies, institutional investors to earn a profit under the sun, so that A-share market moving in the direction of the development of an efficient market; while investors are to be taken for their own investment strategy and should consider the risks of their own capacity, to avoid over-valued species, grasp undervalued species, the full enjoyment of the great bull market to benefit.
For the current market, there are serious differences between the focus, let's try to make a brief analysis.
Foam said. The face of A-share market, we can see ---- just 12 months time, the index rose two-fold, during which a mid-term adjustment-free, with a total market capitalization of 10 trillion yuan, single-day turnover of 100 billion yuan, accounts to increase the number of crazy, open-end fund billions of dollars to subscribe easily, A-share average of 32.2 times earnings in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index price-earnings ratio of 28.2 times the dynamic weighted average share price nearly 9 yuan ---- bubble, irrational, crazy, etc. point of view should be said that part came into being.
In fact, we follow the course of this round of the bull market has repeatedly talked about the risk, but also often in the key technical point and that point of view with caution, but the market at key positions in almost every sideways shocks are replaced by the medium-term adjustment and and then break up. Fanatical, ultra-strong naturally is the best explanation.
However, if the system, taking into account the positive effect of turning the RMB appreciation and soaring foreign reserves brought about by excess liquidity, the United States and Hong Kong the world's major stock markets Diego record the process of the great bull market has brought a good atmosphere, enhance the overall performance of listed companies the enormous potential of the high growth is expected to ... ... We also think that A-share market is gaining popularity but is still in a rational pattern of losing.
Of course, the market does not rule out the phenomenon of good and bad, regardless, for example, the authenticity of information disclosure Nanbian, insider trading, etc. This is regulators need to squeeze the bubble.
The high and low valuation, stock up or down, should be determined by the market, investment gains and losses only by the investors themselves bear.
Stock index futures. The launch of stock index futures has become the A-share market affect the operation, and an important factor for investors in investment strategy. At present, the "delayed the launch of stock index futures" has become the market consensus, because nothing more than index is too high, lack of technical preparation.
We believe that if the latter can be based on the understanding that if the former is based on too subjective.
Only high and low stock market know that the current large-scale A-share market, has no one can dominate, otherwise the market will have been severely punished. For the interpretation of the super-bull market is, no one can accurately determine its height and, therefore, the problem does not exist index is too high.
The stock index futures trading on China's capital market development is concerned, whether from the point of which is a very important milestone. Therefore, once the technical conditions fully prepared should promptly launch. Found that price, makes the stock index futures arbitrage and other functions for the establishment of an efficient market, extruded foam is very important. And if fear of being manipulated or caused stock market crash, to some extent are unfounded.
In fact, even if the current point and introduction of stock index futures, no one would dare to boldly short or short selling success; even if the stock index adjusted to the introduction of the so-called low-index futures, bringing the shock the same can not be ignored. Similarly, many markets around inferred according to pre-launch stock index futures soaring launch A-share market crash will be repeated, but after eventually finding repeated a few months later, we have a negative attitude on this point of view.
Therefore, we prefer to believe that when the market is widely expected to delay the launching of the time, "surprise" story if it will be staged?
The role of administrative measures and the market.
Recent management deliberately very obvious signs of cooling the stock market, for example, prohibit credit funds from being diverted into the market to require securities companies to immediately begin a comprehensive clean-up failed capital account, the SAC of the state-owned capital into the stock market monitor, well-known organizations and scholars in the media frequently talk about the risks and foam, to change the method of calculating indexes, the new fund issue slowing down, continued marketing under control, speed up the issuance and listing of large-cap stocks, large listing of non-small non-lifting of the ban. In addition, the foreign exchange reserves investment management, issuing a large amount yuan special bonds, interest rates, and so the expected tightening of liquidity policy and so on.
Clearly, this bull market is the main driving force comes from a transformation of China's capital market system, profits of listed companies increased substantially, excess liquidity, the global stock market strength. For the stock bubble, as well as differences in the level of the original is a serious proposition, only the market can really play a decisive role that non-market means are one-sided.
From the A shares of the history and mature capital markets point of view, unless there are extreme circumstances, otherwise, the effect of abuse of the New Deal means is always counterproductive. In short, the reliance on market forces is the key to resolving the bull market worries.
Previous 1, afternoon two kinds of evolution trend is likely to last report, we have been waiting for and were worried that stock continued to rise sharply accelerated after the callback will appear retaliatory. From the current trends of view, technology has become high on the diamond-shaped pattern, easy to adjust the trigger plate change, while management's strong cooling stock market, do not rule out a genuine mid-course adjustments.
However, we still need a high degree of attention surrounding the stock market, if the U.S. stock market remains strong conditions such as the economy continues to improve, reduce inflationary pressures, then Europe, Japan, and Hong Kong not going to build a bull market in the world will be at the top, as a foreign high degree of dependence on China's economy is still very optimistic, as the "economic barometer" of the A-share market will show a stronger bull market.
So, A-share market in mid-course adjustments will be difficult to appear, at best, a quick callback fix technical indicators, or continue to shock instead of adjustment, and then wait for an opportunity to resume its rally. This trend entirely rational.
In addition, for long-term bull market expectations, the entry of foreign capital has always been very positive, but also to a certain extent constrained the stock market room for maneuver.
Therefore, the future evolution of the market will appear both cases, the Government must take the initiative to lower the temperature, technical adjustments to requirements, the stock market peaked around the back of tighter monetary policy, bad effects of factors such as the formation of resonance, the market will start mid-term adjustment, the adjustment of the Shanghai Composite Limit in 2300 near (that is, the largest decline in about 20%); second is around the stock market continues to improve, the external capital market actively, the market performance of listed companies increased by more than expected, that the Government lower the temperature, liquidity tightening and so have limited impact on The market will quickly adjust or maintain the high strength shocks, near the spill in 2500 will be the support level.
We tend to interpret the second method.
2, grasp the opportunity to share structural adjustment in the valuation of differences, whether or accumulated too much foam, or industry, changes in the economy, A stock market stock market is facing the fact that structural adjustment. Therefore, to avoid overestimation of the species, to grasp the potential of underestimating the variety is the future of the main investment strategy.
The last issue, we are from the annual performance, asset reorganization oversold stocks, securities industry, RMB appreciation, the Olympics, 3G, manufacturing industrial upgrading, consumer promotion and consumption growth, independent innovation, energy saving and environmental protection, new materials, two tax merger, the new accounting standards , equity incentive and equity injection, commodities futures market linkage to choose themes such as investment products, and represent only 10 species were selected:
CITIC Securities (600.03 thousand quotes, information, reviews, search), Minsheng Bank (600016 market, information, reviews, search), Golden Group (600,383 market, information, reviews, search), Guizhou Moutai (600,519 market, information, reviews, search ), Erie shares (600,887 market, information, reviews, search), Xugong shares (000425 market, information, reviews, search), Air China (601111 market, information, reviews, search), Xingxincailiao (600,299 market, the information , comments, search), Beijing buses (600,386 market, information, reviews, search), the Great Northern Wilderness (600,598 market, information, reviews, search), Shandong Gold (44,2.19,5.24%) (600,547 market, information, reviews, search), Datang Telecom (600,198 market, information, reviews, search), Tiantan Biological Products (600,161 market, information, reviews, search), created in the letter test (600,485 market, information, reviews, search), Yueyang Paper (600,963 Quotes, information, reviews, search).
From January, judging, in addition to Golden Land Group, the above trend is far stronger than the trend of individual stocks, it is recommended to continue this line of thinking to dig under the investment opportunities. The large number of assets into and re-focus on hot stocks is becoming more necessary to focus on.
