Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-06-22
Source: Jian-ming Shanghai Securities News
Guotai Junan Institute held yesterday in the second half of 2007 investment strategy seminars, conferences that the second half of the stock market will be mainly influenced by policy, performance, growth and liquidity supply and demand situation in the three major factors.
Guotai Junan that the level of China's export growth rate and the currency did not show a clear inverse relationship is due to trade mixed in a large number of foreign exchange under the hot money, the future will be to accelerate the pace of yuan appreciation. Through the capital stock and labor supply detailed calculations, as well as for quantitative assessment of the wealth effect, Guotai Junan predicted that the core price level, no significant upward pressure on. Despite crude oil and grain supply and demand balance is extremely fragile, and nominal price levels have a greater upside risks remain, but the impact would not constitute a trend.
For the second half of 2007 China's stock market, Guotai Junan that mainly by three factors: policy, performance, growth and liquidity supply and demand conditions, these factors combined effects of market consolidation, or consolidation should be higher. The report predicts that in 2007 performance of listed companies increased by 40% to 45% in 2008 up 25% to 30%, but the performance increase in the variability of the national policy because of the increasing of control. In the second half, an important factor influencing the market is the management whether to take a bubble policy efforts to eliminate bubbles, if the high price-earnings ratio a large number of issuing new shares, which not only not reduce the market valuation, but will enhance the market valuation.
The focus for future investment in the stock market, Guotai Junan think we should follow the policy, mobility, re-assessment and performance of these three clues to find. Liquidity continued revaluation of China against the backdrop of quality assets, select the medium-term because of limited resources, or difficult to raise the productivity of the supply of more easily sustained revaluation of assets, these resources, including land, commercial real estate, while the productivity restrictions are present in the traditional trades and the high-end services; in the second half of the valuation is not cheap, the company's share price behavior will lead to further changes, such acts, including mergers and acquisitions restructuring, asset injection, equity incentives, investment income, etc.; conduct search for investment themes from the policy point of view, into the Yu-plate and energy-saving environmental protection is also in the second half can not ignore the investment opportunities.
