Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-01-19
The basic situation of index funds
Since November 8, 2002 the first index fund was established, has so far set up 11 open-end index funds, which track the subject can be divided into two categories: one is the index of Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange has been another One is outside the Exchange, A New Index. From these index funds tracking the subject of view, more comprehensive tracking A-share market trends.
Shin redemption of index funds
From the open-end index funds time to see, in 2003 a quarter of the second quarter and three quarters of all open-end index funds are subject to a net redemption, while the second quarter of 2004 for all open-end index fund Jingshen Gou, while the remaining time period that some open-end index fund Jingshen Gou, and some net redemptions. Shen redemption for these conditions is mainly due to inconsistent tracking the target is different, so we are all index funds, the total amount of subscription and redemption, as the object of study can be more fully reflect the broad market trend.
Index funds Shen ransom analysis of changes in the broad market forecast
Looking at the subscription and redemption of index funds, we found that changes in subscription and redemption of the broad market trend has some predictable effects. First, tell us about the analysis method. We are all index funds, the total amount of subscription and redemption, as the object of study, taking into account the impact of the new fund to calculate changes Shen ransom, only select those in the same period beginning and ending have a share of the open-ended index funds. According to our calculation rules will be open-ended index funds Shen ransom change and decline in the Shanghai index rose, as well as open-end equity funds Shen ransom changes for comparison.
From the comparison point of view, open-end index fund redemption Shin change and decline in the Shanghai index rose basic show the opposite trend, while the open-ended equity funds active allocation there is no obvious such features. In particular, 50ETF change subscription and redemption features of the opposite trend is more prominent, open-ended index funds Shen ransom change on the role of market trend prediction can be summarized into the following two aspects:
Open-end index funds by a net redemption into Jingshen Gou, indicating broad market decline to reach the bottom, afternoon broader market decline or rally, fall. The second quarter of 2003 to the third quarter, open-end index funds by a net redemption into Jingshen Gou, while the broader market slump, then in the fourth quarter of 2003 the broader market rose. Similarly, the second quarter of 2004 with the second quarter of 2005 also have this characteristic.
Open-end index fund is administered by Jing Shengou into the net redemption, indicating gains were achieved peak and valley, afternoon gains were decreased. The second quarter of 2005 to the third quarter, open-end index funds into the net redemptions by Jing Shengou the same time, gains were partially achieved the highest point of the fourth quarter, the broad market gains has declined markedly.
Currently Index Fund subscription and redemption on the tape indicates that the role of the limitations of the study there is a certain main reasons: First, the number of China's open-end index fund and the share of the smaller, as so far, a total of 11 open-end index funds with a total share of were 22.9 billion, accounting for open-end Equity Fund's total share of 19.42%; Secondly, the open-end index fund was set up late, by the end of 2002 established the first open-end index funds only Huaan MSCI, which is just three years time; Third, the less data available for subscription and redemption, the fund normally the size of subscription and redemption can only be obtained in the quarterly, from the end of 2002 to the present, only 12 sets of data. Therefore, the open-end index funds Shen redeem the role of the ratio of the market's signal to be further examined.
Why is open between the broad market index funds and the existence of such a delicate relationship? We believe that the index funds as an asset allocation tool, has attracted more investors with timing strategy, its subscription and redemption of change is not only reflected the market's expectations of such investors, but also reflects the vast number of investors from one side of on the market's expectations, thus promoting the broader market trend. The use of a timing strategy for investors in index funds were net redemptions from the right to Jingshen Gou, indicating they believe the broad market decline has been in the end, is expected to decrease or broader market bigger losses will rise, while a certain extent, also reflects the majority of investors in the broader market have the same expectations, thus reducing the lead tape to the decline in direction. And vice versa.
The role seems to be a stronger predictor of 50ETF, may be two reasons: first, 50ETF relatively low transaction costs, more suitable for asset allocation tools; second, to carry out 50ETF investor subscription and redemption of multi-institutional, they generally foresee the ability of the general trend of better.
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