Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-05-14
Strategic points: February broader market in a dilemma: on one hand the market has ample liquidity to further push the driving force; the other hand, the high valuation of the overall market, as well as management control is expected to lead to lack of investor confidence, limiting the short-term do more enthusiasm . Overall, we are in February Quotes holding a relatively cautious approach, the short term, the lack of a trend to do more power, greater upward pressure on the market may absorb a volatile trend in the policy aspect, as well as the negative valuation of the pressure oscillation amplitude (about 10% -15% of the amplitude) is greater than in January, the structural adjustment plates will be more intense, but there should be strong support around 2500-2600.
Only from the valuation, the market yet to emerge fully bubble, in 2007 the level of valuation is still pushing up space, but good fundamentals is expected to be difficult to keep up with the rapid increase in the level of market valuation, the market need for periodic amendments to and from the enterprise profit data to stimulate.
From the financial side of view, one end of the quarter or second quarter of tightening monetary policy further published a great possibility, but 1-2 times a hike as well as further raising the deposit reserve such as tighter monetary measures can not be fundamentally changed the ample liquidity the situation, the market to make money effect and the intensity of policy control may be short-term capital flows and velocity have a major impact, paying close attention to whether external funding would be to break the cycle of balance.
Attitude from the management perspective, the intention of desire to cool the stock market has been very obvious, which is affecting long-short stand-off in February the most important factor, although the practical effect of these measures is limited, but the high valuations in the market as a whole, the case of unstable state of mind likely to become an important short-term long-short directional selection weight.
Recommended stocks in the uplink process, pay attention to controlling position, lock income, reducing the short-term or large, the lack of advantage of the valuation stocks; If a large sharp shock to the cabinet floor, you can increase the position, select a certain margin of safety of the company and overweight in 2007 to bargain-hunting fundamentals of a good high-growth stocks.
Operation Strategy In the shock market, position control and operation is crucial, we suggest that stocks in the uplink process, pay attention to controlling position, lock income, reducing the short-term or large, the lack of advantage of the valuation stocks; If a large shock to the box substantially lower, can increase the position, good fundamentals holdings in 2007 the high-growth stocks, such as consumer stocks, brokerage stocks, steel stocks and so on.
Stock selection sure to select companies that have a certain margin of safety. The margin of safety here, there are two meanings: First performance of steady growth, the overall valuation is low, or the smaller variety of defensive bring margin of safety, such as coal, iron and steel, electric power in the leading companies, Xishan Coal and Electricity, the National Yang new energy, Baosteel Group, Anshan Steel, Handan Steel, GD Power, Nanjing High-tech, etc.; second is listed as a whole is more precisely defined, asset injection, equity incentive or restructuring is expected to stocks, such as Hudong Heavy Machinery, Shanghai airport, Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group, Laurel electricity, TBEA, Kyrgyzstan electricity shares, etc.; third is a clear increase in performance can be supported through high-growth relatively high valuation of high-quality companies, as some sub-sectors of the hydrants.
February Portfolio Email 宝钢股份 ?00019 行情,资料,评论,搜索?
In 2007 production release to reduce the iron and steel industry, steel prices will continue to rise, iron and steel enterprises may be-than-expected profitability. Company's new capacity this year to release ,07-08 year earnings 1.00,1.10 yuan, the current valuation is low.
Xishan Coal and Electricity (000,983 market, information, reviews, search)
The company has the country's largest coking coal base, coal prices in 2007 rose is a foregone conclusion ,07-08 earnings per share 0.88 yuan, 1.00. The current valuation is low.
Liaoning Fushun (000,623 market, information, reviews, search)
GF Securities Company is the first largest shareholder, holding 25% stake in the pre-2006 also increased 250% -300% or more. Present GF backdoor Yanbian Road has been approved, waiting for resume trading. We remain optimistic about the bull market environment, the high-growth stock brokerage, is currently Aodong valuation has not yet fully reflect its intrinsic value, we recommend buying auction, held by the center line.
Changchun High-tech (000,661 market, information, reviews, search)
The company has 70% stake in Changchun GenSci growth is the best bio-pharmaceutical companies, in 2006 net profit of more than 70 million yuan. The other owned subsidiary of 100 grams Pharmaceutical development of Taiwan's first AIDS vaccine through a Phase I clinical, varicella vaccine will also be available in September of this year. as listed companies still have some drag on the level of performance leading to inefficient asset value of the company is seriously undervalued, we believe that asset stripping is a general trend, it is recommended the active involvement of bargain-hunting.
Read: Hai Tong Securities Investment Strategy in February recommended 13 stocks. Doc
