Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-04-09
â—?We believe that, because of special circumstances, so that our country's development and walking in front of us walked the streets of other developing countries are very different, it can not simply make reference to other countries in the development process to predict China's economic development trends. We believe that the future of our economy faces a more serious problem, but the short term to worry about. Economic growth expected in 2006 may be down, but to a lesser extent, GDP growth is still expected to more than 8.5%.
â—?stock market is a barometer of macroeconomic, but because human nature has also caused the stock market has its own laws governing the operation, always showing signs of recovery, Ready, start, off, bubble, crash, cycle downturn, which cycle often not in line with consistent with macro-economic changes, and sometimes even the opposite. Since 1999, China's stock market showed significant departure from the trend and macroeconomic changes.
â—?We believe that the departure from China's stock market and macroeconomic trends is not accidental, but China's special economic environment caused. As China's economic environment in the short term there will be no major changes, so changes in the macroeconomic effects of movements on the stock market will be weaker. Then, in 2006 economic growth to slow and decline in the performance of listed companies will not affect China's stock market may be a good performance.
â—?We believe that, after July 2001 to July 2005, after four years of decline, China's stock market has been transferred to up-cycle. Expected that the current consolidation process around the end of the Spring Festival in 2006, after which the process of launching a new round of upside in 2006, the Shanghai index could reach 1,500-point level.
â—?2005 since the second half, before being generally optimistic about the market value of stocks have abandoned the market. On the contrary, "subject," speculation once again prevailed, from the continuity of view, can no longer be seen as short-term speculative behavior, which may be the direction of long-term capital flows. We believe that this phenomenon is not irrational investor behavior. On the contrary, is a strong background of historical experience, is China's "emerging and transitional" the inevitable result of circumstances.
â—?the next two years, the general performance of listed companies will show a downward trend, so in 2006 the traditional valuation methods to evaluate the value of the company's market opportunities brought about though still exists, but only partial, mainly concentrated in the past few years, the market is not concerned about the breakdown of industry, unfamiliar industry stocks of smaller companies, especially in 2001 the market entered a bear market since the listing.
â—?increase in the stock market has entered a cycle, a number of market opportunities, investment strategy should be a moderate conservative, a radical shift. Should be from a variety of different angles, using different methodologies to evaluate the company's intrinsic value, rather than just the traditional valuation methods. The market expected in 2006 will be "subject," mainly speculation, M & A restructuring, replacement value, policy adjustment is a market three major themes, while the merger and reorganization is the core.
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Investment Strategy Early 2003 - 2004 5-month period of the stock market is a typical performance-driven part of the value of return to nature, the value of individual stocks have been fully excavated. Widely expected the next two years, the overall performance of listed companies will be less, so pure performance in the next year or two is hardly a mainstream hot spots and Quotes of the main driving force. However, we believe that 2006 will enter the market up-cycle, the market and opportunities, investment strategy should be a moderate conservative, a radical shift. Should be from a variety of angles, using different methodologies to evaluate the company's intrinsic value, rather than just the traditional valuation methods.
1, policy adjustments opportunities Due to over-investment in the past few years, the current overcapacity situation is becoming acute, and countries are also trying to adjust the mode of growth, the future may be a lot of policy adjustments, such as may be issued a new policy to stimulate consumption.
The implementation of 3G and digital TV promotion, and related industries and companies will bring tremendous business opportunities, such as color televisions, communications industries; national defense modernization, the continuing strict environmental requirements for new energy industry support, the industrial upgrading of the equipment will be manufacturing industry a huge opportunity. A total of 2 1 [2]
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