Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-04-21
Source: China Merchants Securities
First, market conditions perspectives
Opened slightly lower today after the broader market, rising out of the unilateral movements of the disk have also shown a broad based trend, no significant change in trading volume.
Disk observations, the Olympics, tourism stocks into today's most dazzling star. Beijing blocks up almost across the board, G Beiren, G Urban, China Sports Industry, G Xidan, Beijing Capital Tourism, G first, G daily limit to close at trip to Beijing, G Beijing urban and rural areas were also side by side start-up; active and 11 Olympic plates Golden Week, the advent of continuous plates to promote tourism strong, Beijing Capital Tourism, Zhangjiajie daily limit, G Gui tour, Lijiang tour, G Emei Shan, also pulled into the fast phase. Airline stocks were also out of the same time, a continuous downturn trend of the maximum impact on limit-Eastern Airlines, Air China hit a new high since listing of China Southern Airlines, G Shanghai Airlines also appeared unusually strong; the real estate section, digital TV Plate, military plates, small and medium plate plate, also very active, G Guangzhou Iron and Steel sealed in a third consecutive limit-board, warrants market reproduction hot, full-red disk at close.
Shanghai Composite Index opened 1635.33 points, up 1657.69 points, the lowest 1635.12 points to close at 1657.52 points, up 20.83 points, or 1.27% on turnover of 17.8 billion; Shenzhen component index opened 4116.51 points, up 4181.45 points, the lowest 4114.57 points to close at 4181.45 points, , up 52.70 points, or 1.28% on turnover of 10.7 billion.
Short-term point of view, in early September in a news vacuum, the management at the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China pre-IPO will maintain a better external economic environment, although the A-share market out of the overall increase in Quotes is unlikely, but still maintain a strong shock pattern, China Merchants Bank H-shares of the high price, Sinopec shares resume trading will be changed to promote the short-term stock indexes continue to rise, this rebound on the Shanghai Composite Index reached 1690 points, -1.7 thousand-point range can be achieved.
Meanwhile, we remind investors that the market orientation of the latter part of the development of a variety of possibilities including the possibility of new highs, but it should be an upward trend since last year, pulled up the last wave of speculative strong grasp difficult. In addition the market in late September will focus on the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's IPO issuance last 10 months after the expansion rate may be accelerated, both will cause greater pressure on the market, we recommend investors to exercise caution. Focus on short-term operation in the financial sector and real estate sections and the leading varieties of G CITIC, G Vanke trend, and in the process decreased gradually up position.
Midline, we continue to maintain market between 1500-1700 points, to determine the trend of box shocks: the value of blue-chip stocks constitute a box at the bottom center, while the supply and demand relationships (IPO) is the market fluctuate up and down the main factor. This trend likely to continue in the second half most of the time and finally choose the direction, this direction can be a soft landing to macro-economic decision, which takes about 3-5 months to see.
2, hot track
To G Huangshan, Mount Emei, China CYTS, Beijing Capital Tourism as a leader of tourism, the Olympics plates entered a higher stage, no longer recommends investors to chase high, held by the investors can only profit set a good price, ready to be secured .
Small plate straight up, but the plates began to differentiate, at present the plate most of the species, in particular, the high valuation of shares, we recommend investors of short-term risk.
Air plate to exclude the impact of fuel prices, industry indicators are all operating in good operating condition, the state aviation fuel surcharge increase in the coming season and the market is conducive to a turnaround in the second half of airlines, investors can focus on the latter part of the South Airlines, Eastern Airlines, Air China and so on, bargain-hunting and strategic intervention.
Yangtze Electric Power, China Unicom, Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway, the Shanghai Airport to represent blue-chip funds showed signs of progressive engagement. In margin trading, index futures and other new business the upcoming circumstances, have a certain advantage of blue chip varieties of valuation may be the main target involved huge amounts of capital, investors may be bargain-hunting interest.
Third, strategy and operational recommendations for the
In early September the market is still a strong possibility of relatively large, but the strategy should take up more sales just strategy. Suggest that investors in the Shanghai index near 1690 points, -1700, or position in mid-September fell to 50%.
Investors are advised to continue to adhere to the "consumption and services" the main direction, grasp the major hot spots and mainstream varieties, while maintaining the basic position of the case-band operation, to continuously reduce the cost position and improve short-term gains. Increase in cash investors can once again in the upcoming peak in the purchase of IPO shares.
