Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-05-18
Source: Morgan Stanley Investment Authors: XU Zhi
May 15, 16 two trading days, the stock market close to all-time consecutive days the amount of the transaction, the two cities there have been substantial stock index fluctuated. Tuesday intraday peak at 1678 points, from the location of only one step away Qian Qi. Of the current reference point and be small, almost all focused on the line, there is a high point of 519 Quotes 1756-point, 02-year high of 1748 points and 2004 high of 1783 points. Although these historical points are on the cards for today's technology index of reference do not mean much, but the psychological impact is still quite obvious.
In the index close to 1,700 points, when accompanied by a huge amount of short-term volatility should be expected the trend emerged. From the short-term perspective, as represented by the shares of mineral resources in the early stage of the mainstream of hot plates substantial correction, stock prices may be near the position in 1600 to run for some time the shock consolidation market, and the index of volatility would be relatively large. But overall, this does not mean the end of the long-term trends in the future after the end of stock in the short-term adjustment will continue to maintain an upward trend.
Looking back side suddenly
Prior to the analysis of stock trends, there is a problem would be the first mention, it is based on the stock market a variety of adjustment and reform policies, on how to be successful in a market environment? The answer is self-evident, a rising market, not only to cover up the existence of many of the problems, but also for these problems, we can not be said to be resolved, or at least can be said to its capability.
Today's Quotes from the single-day total turnover of view may also not exceed the highest level in history, but from successive rounds of higher energy prices and transactions, as well as the duration of view, it could be said to have exceeded the 519 Quotes efforts, the less is already can not be more than just the point position. I think now that no one would be the arrival of the bull market there is still doubt, but most of the questions focused on the continuous rise of the stock market when it would be adjusted?
Some people think that from 99 to 2001, the great bull market was once the realization of state-owned assets, the best time, but unfortunately, when the management did not do anything until the bull market has been unable for the time following the introduction of a state-owned shares (as opposed to solve the flow problem) is bad policy. But today's situation is not too different, the entire unit to change the work chosen a fairly low (1000 points), and in this low on the Quotes started.
Some things I want to look back in order to want to have to recognize that, to cite one example: remember that agricultural products (000061) of the share reform schemes? Its content is not paid on the price promise investors the choice to change the implementation of the right to share 10 months from the date of the last five trading days in order to yuan 4.25 a share sold to the Shenzhen Municipal SASAC. This program has been very controversial, some people think that agriculture will be bet on the stock market. Now take a look at agro-shares close at 10 yuan and had to admire the company's high-level vision, rally without firing a shot to solve the problem of the share reform, does not charge the right to receive shares in circulation. There are many examples of the same.
Shocks do not change the trend
Tuesday's sharp fall Monday just did not fully cover the gapped gap, which the market has left a trace of imagination suspense. In fact, this suspense leave no matter whether continuous heavy volume rising rapidly created a large number of short-term profit-Fu Chou, the market also needs to adjust to a shock cleaning disk. To grasp the whole point of market, we must understand the current market which is in what stage.
Reform in the present stock market outlook of China's stock market faces important changes in three aspects: First, to complete share reform, on this basis, by G Unit era to full circulation over time. Second, improve the rules, basically completed the reform in the stock index futures when it introduced the short mechanism and margin trading system in the operating rules with the international market. Third, the gradual convergence of rules, while gradually expanding the extent of opening up the finished opening of capital markets. In contrast, the upcoming new from the old section hand, seem not so important.
Some of these transformations in progress, some have not been implemented. Have changed means that speculative opportunities. Perhaps such an opportunity in general, investors are not obvious, but in a lot of external financing, especially the eyes of a lot of foreign capital, this chaotic state of the relatively large-scale intervention is a good time to play to our strengths. Therefore, China's stock market recently in the international community has been tremendous concern, coupled with the appreciation of the renminbi is expected to factor in the influx of A-share market a lot of money, we do not pursue the origin of these funds know that there are so many kinds of behavior would be sufficient.
The changes in China's stock market It is this background of a bull market, and perhaps the end of all these factors have changed, and all the reforms are successfully completed, and market access, "stable and healthy" state when the bull market also came to an end. But now, that is, in 2006, market reforms are still the middle of the chaos of the opportunity is continually emerging, medium and long term of the stock market will continue to maintain the upward pace.
Adjustment is not terrible
Quotes for the evaluation, I have no preconceived compliment or derogatory. In the 1700-point mark before the market the possibility of short-term adjustment is very large, but the adjustment points are located far from the judge to determine the nature of the adjustment so important. The nature of adjustment? If only half-way adjustment, then the afternoon have a chance. The recent market turbulence may be short-term risks will increase, the mainstream of the early hot plate will occur again deep pieces of callback, and then wait for an opportunity further action.
From the perspective of short-term opportunities, due to stock push higher, beginning the level of the market positioning of stocks, the recent low-priced stocks of the compensatory growth will form the short-term hot spots. Also this week, there is a disk phenomenon, then a non-G Unit (non-stock reform, but reform is being planned stock stocks) at the front table or the ratio appears relatively large. This is likely with the resumption of the G Unit short-term phenomenon or a large, investors can be concerned about.
Overall, I think the market is not the Powei Shenfudiaozheng risk, investors can now operate without homeopathic chase, but when you do not have to drop significantly lighten the deep site. 1600 was a shock near the location of the region, but the index of the callback rate will not be too deep. Time to adjust short-term shocks will not be long, medium and long term rising trend has not changed, but the future trend of the stock market may be relatively mild, not total, as early in May frenzied situation.
