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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Guohai Securities Investment Strategy Center, Zhong Jing Teng
1. The second quarter, a good macroeconomic situation will continue to support the performance of listed companies has increased steadily.
2. The current A-share market from a valuation perspective, as a whole has lost its appeal.
3. Market funds face is still quite adequate, funds may become the second quarter, the final impetus to the stock market rise.
4. Stock index futures may be introduced in the second quarter and became the main market in the second quarter of excitement. Introduction of stock index futures when the broader market in the short-term reversal is a sensitive period, investors need to effectively control risk.
5. Thematic investment, focusing on the weight of blue-chip board, a quarter of high growth plate, when the stock had promised to change the asset injection and listed as a whole plate.
Factors affecting the second quarter
Looking in the second quarter, the macroeconomic fundamentals will not appear abrupt change in policy, regulation and control continues to prevent the economy from overheating as the theme, the basic relaxed monetary conditions will not be reversed the situation, a good macroeconomic situation will continue to support the performance of listed companies has increased steadily.
In particular, we believe that a steady rate of consumption growth accelerated process of economic development in the promotion play an increasingly important role; in the macro-economic control and window guidance policy, the monetary credit and fixed-asset investment will be well controlled; the past few annual raw material price increases inflationary pressures caused by the gradual embodiment in the consumer end, but the CPI is expected to still be controlled at less than 3%; to alleviate the pressure of capital inflows and international public opinion, the pace of yuan appreciation is likely to continue to accelerate the annual appreciation rate will be increased to 5 % -7%, but the steady appreciation of the strategy will not change. We expect the second quarter, the central bank will again raise the deposit reserve rate by 0.5%, and recovery of liquidity issuing central bank bills; another interest rate increase is most likely to occur in the second half.
From a market valuation perspective, as a whole has lost its appeal. A-share market after a quarter of last year and this year has risen sharply in the current A stock is no longer cheap. Funds will be the final impetus for the stock market rise. Statistics show that in March the stock of A-share market a substantial increase in capital 201.2 billion, a record high. These include: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock margin increased 140 billion of new equity funds raised 61.1 billion issued. Statistics show that capital inflows this year, the stock market has been gradually shift from institutional funds of individual investors own funds: average daily inflow of 65 billion yuan, precisely, and then the number of the Shanghai and Shenzhen cities of 115,000 investors in New Account households is consistent; month newly issued shares of the fund, also shows the apparent characteristics of individual investors. Month to raise new funds to complete the average number of households reached 200 thousand from top to bottom, with an average amount of investment dropped by 5 million or less.
The overall market trends to determine
We believe that a comprehensive analysis of the second quarter, the stock market to run the basic style is still a "regional shocks, the focus on the Move." The introduction of stock index futures, will stimulate broader market heavyweight out of the wave of a decent market, and thereby promote the indices focus on the shift. But overall, the theme of the second quarter, investment opportunities are not many blocks of stock index futures market will become a major hot speculation.
After the first quarter of last year and this year, surged after the overall market valuation has been high, the current stock price have mostly reflected in the next two years ahead of high-growth, and industry and the plate material has already been over to tap the market, the stock has been completed Lun Zhang . Currently on the market can be difficult to find undervalued bold Jiancang plate, the stock market has been the reasons for the lack of sustained sharp rise; but on the other hand, the trend of appreciation of the RMB may be further accelerated in the second quarter, excessive liquidity and the influx of investment in the New Army block of the broader market also fell sharply space. In such conflicts and differences, the mentality of instability Duanchao monsoon, the market turmoil intensified, turnover remained at a higher level.
Since the launch of stock index futures will stimulate continued strength in blue chips, so the concept of stock index futures speculation would be supported by broader market volatility climbed, stock index futures market is likely to be the main excitement in the second quarter.
Theme Investment Opportunities
The second quarter, a quarterly disclosure is not only the 2007 period, and semi-annual results for 2007 giving notice. Historical empirical analysis shows that semi-annual report quarterly performance in particular, a substantial increase in stocks, in the interim results announcement before and after the existence of an opportunity. Thus, for 2007, especially in 2007 a quarter of high-growth stocks, has become a top priority of investors.
If we say that the market shares of more opportunities 2005,2006 are subject to change, then 2007 will belong to include the issuance and overall market orientation, including assets, into the subject matter, it can be said is expected to bring the assets into the listed companies and investors to double the wealth of effect. In the overwhelming, Nishajuxia into rumors of assets, investors choose how to judge it? The answer is: Let the listed companies and substantial shareholder "personally informed" investors. In other words, look for stocks over reform, promised to inject assets or transactions to resolve problems associated with the listed companies, this part of the assets into the listed company can be said to already have a timetable.
