Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-06-16
Source: Morgan Stanley Investment Authors: XU Zhi
Into the stock market since the second half, giving the feeling is like at an event to wait for another one of them. Waiting for the Bank of China listing, waiting for Sinopec shares changed, waiting for additional H shares of China Merchants Bank, and now waiting for dual-listed Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. This trend of waiting for the stock is divided into a number of paragraphs, the event also formed a band of each turning point. When watching the market, often can not find a continuous state of feeling when you analyze the market there are always broken.
In the Bank of China pre-release, the band index is up, the band is to adjust after the listing, this adjustment in the shares of Sinopec and instead declared the end, followed by China Merchants Bank led the index up to promote the two cities share index. Today, the China Merchants Bank H shares listed last, while the Shanghai Composite Index has been located in the vicinity of previous highs. This location is the market in May since the formation of the whole big box to the top position. If there is no wait for the next event, the market is difficult to break with this box, the current market analysis into a event analysis.
China Merchants Bank is a kind of foreshadowing additional
Today, China Merchants Bank H-shares listed on the first day, once ascribed to the 11 after the opening bell at the top of the Hong Kong dollar, far more than its H-share issue price, but also far beyond the strokes Bank A-share market sale prices. Due to differences in location, most of the two shares of listed companies, its A share price is often higher than the H share prices, many market speculation often start around the H shares price. However, China Merchants Bank opened a precedent, it is H-share listed on the first day more than the A shares of the stock.
Based on past experience, this is often the A shares of a good excuse for speculation, but the A-shares in China Merchants Bank's performance is not so. G China Merchants Bank (600036) appeared heavy volume of ascribed intraday drop, it seems that cash out of funds in sight. This may be a speculation on the skills, to realize the situation the best of times, H shares opened higher is a chance.
But I feel that bank shares of the stock market, and not really a complete end. Because the event is waiting behind the market, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China A-shares and H-share market upon their release, this time set in late October. China Merchants Bank is a kind of foreshadowing of the stir-fried, in order to pave the way done by ICBC listing. Strokes before the line H-share listed shares rose more than 40%, greatly pushed up to its issue price, as well as in the H-share market to market positioning. But also conveys a message: For the broader market state-owned enterprises, H shares of stock prices can be more than A shares of the.
This information is very beneficial to the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. After all, just experienced the impact of the Bank of China has just been listed on both the market need another reason, or another excuse to meet the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to ensure the success of its issuance. China Merchants Bank can be said that the best commercial banks in the Mainland, using it to pave the way most appropriate.
I think that in 11 holiday before the indexes are just faced with high pre-test, there will be a period of shock consolidation. Industrial and Commercial Bank of issuance and listing process, it is likely to create market opportunity for a breakthrough, so that stock in the impasse that may arise at any time extricating itself. 11 after the market, may be related to previous similar operation to form a relatively stable pattern.
Hotspots messy and implicit
Recently the greatest impact on the market since there are two stocks, China Merchants Bank and Shenzhen Vanke, respectively the leading cities of rising. Shenzhen Vanke uplink channel maintained very good, but also led to a number of real estate stocks in Shenzhen's strength, including the G COFCO land (000031), Poly Real Estate (600048), G Merchants (000024), etc..
Real estate stocks have been hot in the second half, looked continuity is not strong, but from time to time will appear. Hot market seems messy, but there is no divergence has been very subtle. This feature is probably the fourth quarter of this year will still continue. On the one hand and real estate companies on the profit cycle, the other, and the current regulatory policy is not unrelated.
Recently issued a series of macro-control measures for the real estate. To sum up there are so many categories: first, increasing interest rates, increased real estate development and mortgage purchase costs. Second, is to restrict new home of second-hand trades, increase second-hand housing transaction costs. 3 is to improve the real estate development company qualification requirements, increase access to the cost of the industry. The fourth is the planning of development projects to make demands, like there should be a certain percentage of housing a single set of area of 90 square meters or less. Fifth category, and most importantly, strict examination and approval procedures of land, control of land supply, in fact, increased the cost of acquiring land.
It was hoped that these macro-control measures to curb housing prices, and even cause prices to fall. This is probably an impossible desire! Look at five measures, there are four types of measures are to increase the cost of real estate development. As a commodity, in the premise of rising production costs, how can lead to decline in selling prices was the result?
Then the control measures will play an effect? Its role is to a certain extent, supporting a number of large enterprises to restrict the number of small business survival. But also the redistribution of the entire real estate development formed part of the profits. To say simply, this is a redistribution of interests, rather than the interests of alienation. Therefore, for this industry, in which strength and large-scale, there are land reserve of capital and enterprises in a regulation will be more by the market's attention.
Shanghai Stock Market and the Shenzhen Composite performance. I think the market would be 11 to enter before the shock, while the 11 will then gradually rise again into a stable pattern. The hot spots, in addition to continuously because the market needs to be seen outside of large cap stocks, real estate stocks, especially the real estate industry key enterprises will continue to be intermittent hot plate.
