Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-07-25
Source: Today Morning Post Author: ZOU Yi
Hit Europe and the United States raise interest rates to lead to disk into a nosedive, and the giant Bank of China A shares issued to return the multiple bad news stress, in the past week, an unusually rapid drop index, so that our original assumption that movement off the impulse died. Index was close to unraveling the Qianqi crossing for fear of high disc tray with the profit-taking pressure suddenly making indexes overwhelmed Wednesday intraday stock index broke a key position to kill 1628.88 points, after surging out technical stop plate. Last week we talked about a great excess liquidity because banks are discounted low-interest capital inflows, while the central bank and China Banking Regulatory Commission this week turned his hand, thorough investigation of illegal loans and adjustment of central bank bills, interest rates, making short-term funds have experienced substantial changes in level. Therefore, the pre-surge-type varieties have been appearing, lighten up take the initiative to sell into, resulting in four and a half Hu Zhi hit the biggest one-day drop since.
Mainstream institutions to transfer positions by fall
Now down, fell down, the market produced pessimism, feeling the onset of the medium-term adjustment of amid the screams of endless, most people's first impression is to lighten up the rebound. We are never too big to argue with those holding a variety of people or lighten up, but you also have to see the market is not really as most people expected so. In fact, we have been in front of colored blocks that have lost their arbitrage value, does not lighten up too, could be the market since there is always a plate plate down, upward trend has not completely before the end of round is always moving upward continuation of the. The stock market since last year, take a good, indeed a qualitative change, investors are more mature and the external capital abundance, have determined that the future trend will be gradually getting better, a few days of the crash, and no fundamental changes in market environment. Steep decline can not be a large-scale cash, and shares that change will also still going strong, with the new shares have to have the general trend can be successfully released. Such a law, then, not too much or worry about, or look to see which species have dropped out of the back of the opportunities, and that is the correct path.
In fact, the Thursday morning market indexes fell, the pressure is from heavyweights such as Sinopec. If the stock fell in the visual guided because of heavyweight, then it must contain one of the profound meaning of mainstream institutions. Our capital position from the mainstream of Thursday's index movement position, may be able to understand what is currently playing abacus mainstream institutions. Has always been known to sound social security fund, in Thursday's position among the various institutional index index of the first, and a number of the leading varieties of major plates, showed a bargain-hunting-type active attack plate. Does this mean that under the pressure in the petrochemical industry, in order to reach some sort of purpose? Mainstream capital Thursday to support the market behavior are evident, but their direction of attack is defensive enterprise integration of varieties and the central theme of variety. It can be that the mainstream funds are also expected in this bull market, the Bank of China is bound to cause public sector investment portfolio allocation percentage of redistribution, so a quick transfer positions in advance.
Hu Zhi-point gap in 1497 is the target bit
Looking at the big talk, this Shen Chengzhi played since November 16, 2005 to 2592.32 points up to promote the structure and without completing it. By Shen Chengzhi at 4463.08 points, the highest point down, was not actually a downside to promote structure, it was inevitable there will be an up-to promote the end of the structure of ascending. Now the structure of meso-level, the trend has been seen more clearly than before, this so-called mid-course adjustments are not only started from Wednesday, but a May 16 high down when started. Is now in a three-platform, C-segment, only the C segment or section of the main sharp setback. Why do we pre-determine the volatility of the stock had confused? After the reflection of the crash Wednesday night, find out the reasons, or fluctuations in the same period of the structure and Hu Zhi Shen Chengzhi rhythm of the differences caused by misjudgment. Hu Zhi May 24 low uplink is really too much like push up the structure, and that time it was ignored when the uplink to the high departure from the status of the top. 60-minute departure from the top of the map, how to say the points are also worthy of attention, went so far have been ignored.
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Now look at Hu Zhi Shen Chengzhi do with different lags Shen Chengzhi adjustments which should begin June 2, while the pseudo-push up front that is not easy to see it. SSE 50 index as the above can only be circumstantial evidence shows that it is still a class B upstream segment. It is precisely because of these differences, allows us to judge should not have appeared on some of the error. However, Shen Chengzhi point of view, here is a platform-based order can confirm. Therefore, the current level of adjustment is also only one of the larger C-segment platform-type finishing minor. Of course, in the structure of the fourth amendment to platform-based order of the most complex and difficult to determine will go into a dual three results. The reason why we are unwilling to adjust the present time is defined as the peak due to lies Shen Chengzhi 4463.08 points down, not push down the structure. As a platform-type structure assumption, adjustments have also been drawing to an end, although there will be another short-term test a low point, but this space is not large, is still tolerable range.
Relative to Hu Zhi, Shen Chengzhi some of the volatility to be more standardized, from concept level, platform-type 3-3-5 structure (see Figure) of the amendment seems more reasonable. Micro-level point of view, Shen Chengzhi Thursday has already begun in the C-3-IV rebound, the rebound at 10:20 Friday morning ended, started C-3-V segment sell into. From the range point of view, the C-3-V segment sell into immediate concern should be back to 3918 ± 5 point range in the vicinity, that Shen Chengzhi early next week have to have ruined Thursday's low, then is the failure of The first C-4, 5 shocks. The Shen Chengzhi here is bound to do so in the 55-day moving average near the shock, in order to reserve force counterattack. Corresponds to Hu Zhi, 1497 near the bottom of the gap may be the reincarnation test objectives, mainstream institutions are most likely to put pressure on the heavyweight, non-ferrous metals and real estate stocks will withstand it, but its true lighten non-ferrous metals, real estate is the In order to accumulation. Hu Zhi of the most ruthless approach is to back test on the hourly chart of the May 8 gapped gap, then, the market panic sell-off to failure, and then further based on hours after the end of departure from the plan is not to find a platform to organize the low end of ascending node Quotes operation. The whole adjustment time, due to this bottom-Zhang Yin thrown delayed, we may have six months to see a better low selling points.
There is still potential for real estate financial stocks
Next week should be Xianyihouyang trend, because the popularity has not resumed after the short-term panic, so for the first time produce a strong rebound to kill the momentum depends on the intensity of the next weekly. As the meso-level structure is not there a push to come out, followed the trend continues there will be a new high. So, the next killing can not be said to be peaked, while the shareholding structure should be regarded as an opportunity to adjust. We still believe that the last paragraph of the second quarter, real estate and financial stocks are the most noteworthy species. Of course, the strength of national industry regulation and control have an impact on short-term trend of plate, but we pay more attention to are those affected by regulation in the industry, a smaller non-residential commercial real estate, the most valuable investment products and resources should be focused on a monopoly advantage listed companies, including oligopoly of mineral resources, sales channels, resources, land monopoly of resources, independent intellectual property resource species. Especially in the tradable context, should be noted that holdings of major shareholders holding type, or directed to foreign shareholders of additional species.
Short-term operating principles or according to the rhythm of fluctuations in individual stocks held by lower costs for the operation, as long as the hands of the varieties and long-term investment value, it should not be punished simply for clearance. According to the index fluctuations in the rhythm, adjusting the cost of the original chips. After the plunge to be calm, small-level rebound in and out of the whole warehouse is a price to pay, so we do not recommend novices in this period of time involved in rebound, even skilled have to hot under the disk more than a short Zhizuoqingcang Sniper
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