Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-12-29
Source: China Securities News Author: Xu Hui
From the investor's reaction, the market fell 2.19 percent Monday surprising, but the market rebounded 1.59 percent Tuesday is also unexpected. Observe the disk we can see that three times last 3 months, the Shanghai Composite breaking Qian Liu mark, and now the market is concerned that Qian Liu stage whether it will be the top region, or the end stage?
Long-short point of view diametrically opposed to
Tuesday the market was primarily driven by higher on property stocks and shares of Sinopec series to promote. Market concerns about the "small non-" do not form a further blow. Tuesday Although there are quite a number of "small non-" lifting of the ban, but the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed 1595.66 points, the same day, the index returned to the vicinity of Qian Liu. Since May 12 the first time in recent years, the Shanghai Composite recovered Qianliu point, the market is close to that point had been 3 months long. For the market the next run, the two diametrically opposed viewpoints:
Read more felt that daughter not buy cattle back. Qian Liu as the market will adjust the support near the area of the RMB appreciation and the Chinese economy against the backdrop of a long-term bullish and long-term bull market will continue to operate. Investors should cherish the bull market this unique opportunity to adjust.
While those that look empty this year, of the stock market has ended, should sit down to patiently wait for next year's opportunities. Because almost all of the concepts, plates have been into high stock valuations, high-price areas, the inherent risks of large, but have yielded little. The only worth looking forward to is the small number of opportunities in undervalued blue chips, but the adjustment in the market as a whole against the background of such shares are difficult to very good performance. Investors, the best choice for the moment is to see an empty market's trend, focus on the movements of blue-chip, waiting for the end of the adjustment.
Careful investors can be found, despite the long-short point of view diametrically opposed, but their understanding of the region there is still a space intersect, which is for the blue-chip awareness. Both are considered high-quality blue chips there is a good opportunity for the future, but for judging the timing there are some differences.
More likely to return the value of
The author believes that the future operation of the market certainty needed to make judgments on the following issues:
First, the overall valuation of the current market status? Whether the fundamentals of the company adapt. In my opinion, if taking into account the loss of stocks and low-profit stock market as a whole is almost beyond doubt the fact that over-estimated.
Second, the current market valuation of blue chip status? Whether the fundamentals of fit. Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index of the current price-earnings ratio of 20 times, the price-earnings ratio is still in a general upper end of a reasonable valuation range, we should not expect too much of this price-earnings ratio increases occur, thus should not expect the index in the current position with much increase.
Third, how to look at revaluation impetus for the index? Appreciation of the renminbi would indeed push the corresponding share price appreciation of the yen foreign exchange market and stock market rise during the ratio of 1:10. However, the situation in Japan have a certain uniqueness, easy copying the undesirable; Moreover, Japan was the case that bubble, investors spent a full 10 years to clean up. So, despite the appreciation of yuan would give impetus to the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, but its premise should be the basis of the stock market itself has value.
Therefore, the above effect, I believe that downside risk will be higher than the current market continues to upside risk, 1600 point phase of the top of the region as more likely to be greater than the risk of end stage.
