Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-06-15
Source: Debon Securities Author: Kang Hongtao
1 week Dashiyanpan:
(1) this week, large inventory position prediction: important pressure spaces: 1768.77 points, an important support level: 1649.37 points, the broader market trend Long lines 1608.75 points (Long lines are increasingly broad market strength of the line SSE)
(2) evaluation of market conditions next week:
In the June 7 Super Yinxian rapid decline, Hu Zhi in 1550 began to appear near the 11 consecutive extremely rare even yang strong, an upward step by step expansion of space, once again approaching pre-high, has been fully restored pre-bad technology, shape, line 11, Lian-yang encroach on Super Yinxian, Zhou Yang online gradually junior is shown with the solid strength of multi-party, and today a strong shock is multi washed off in the last before the shock, digestion confidence in the unstable The Chi Chou who can say that, after consecutive Yang Xian, multi-party initiative did not carry out further attacks, but take the initiative to defend, so that greater cohesion power washed off, but in the disk, we have not seen to Guan Chong led the market's absolute power, a small number of engineering machinery, consumer or large index stocks have split, are the driving force can not be washed off, while the Bank of China next Wednesday will usher in the listing of H shares of Bank of China is currently positioned in the 3.42 Hong Kong dollars or so cases, the A share market is expected to exceed 3.5 per, after, if listed on the first day to reach 3.6 to 3.8 yuan, will drive the Shanghai Composite Index rose 40 to 70 corresponding points, so we believe that next week, led by Bank of China , Hu Zhi will form break the trend, hitting a new high round Quotes.
Second, next week, the center line Niugu actual attack:
G 3 Ai-Fu (600,636): In accordance with 2006-06-12 G 3 Ai-rich CDM project progress on the announcement, said: CDM Council website bulletin from the United Nations was informed that the company's subsidiaries Changshu 3 Ai Zhong Hao New Chemical Materials Co., Ltd. HFC23 decomposition projects submitted, was June 7, 2006 due publicity by CDM Board discussion, the ho company still need to add that from 2002 to 2004 F22 production process of change and other issues, pending the UN CDM Board 7 months of discussions. This means that the company close to the worldwide implementation of the clean CDM. CDM is a national clean development mechanism, referred to, is the "Kyoto Protocol" in countries around the globe in order to protect the planet and reduce greenhouse gas emissions on the planet, national corporate environmental projects implemented in cooperation with each other, so the prospect of not less than solar energy. Market, the first CDM project to obtain G Juhua tape dropping in recent cases has been steadily rising, fully illustrated the huge amounts of capital have been optimistic about the prospects of the CDM. CDM Board of the United Nations public information display: the current global emission reduction F23 Fluorine Chemical Company in order to engage in CDM project has a total of three, namely India, SRF, and South Korea FIRSTEC company. Involved in CDM projects SRF, GFLC respectively, July 1, 2004, November 3, 2003 signed a contract with the relevant buyers, followed by the two company's share price in the capital markets have a high degree of investor recognition, SRF, GFLC stock from the CDM project after signing up 14-fold, respectively, 6.5-fold. Thus resemble the United Nations to G 3 Ai-rich CDM project approval, the stock will be how much room for growth? And 70% owned subsidiary of Zhonghao of Chemical Engineering and the World Bank signed an emission reductions purchase agreement approved by, the World Bank agreed to purchase chemical-ho in 2007 - 2013 emission reductions that arise between, the price per ton of emission reductions 6 euros, the total emission reduction of about 73.06 million tons, involving an amount of up to 4.25 billion of the giant! The implementation of CDM projects the company's future net revenue will reach an annual average of nearly 10.2795 million euros. If the over production in 2007 is expected to be earnings per share growth of 0.34 yuan. That is three Aifu first G of the CDM contract is three times the giant of CDM contracts. CDM subject to G Juhua gone against the tide with a record high, then the (600636) G 3 Ai-fu will be lying in the low department do? Company's most shocking subject matter in its CDM (clean development mechanism) theme! Company holding 70% of the subsidiary Zhonghao of Chemical Engineering and the World Bank signed an emission reductions purchase agreement approved, in accordance with approved emission reduction purchase agreement, the World Bank will purchase the ho in 2007 to 2013 (7 years) produces emission reductions; reductions price of 6 euros per ton; the total reduction of about 7305.9707 million tons; an average annual emission reductions approved for 1043.7101 million tons, the agreement on January 3, 2006 entered into force. 6 euros per tonne of emission reductions in accordance with terms of three HFC23 Aifu output each year (1 ton HFC23 emissions of the greenhouse effect produced by the equivalent of 11.7 thousand tons of carbon dioxide emissions generated by the greenhouse effect) emission rights worth about 6262.2606 million euros. According to three Aifu notice three Aifu CDM project income will be turned over 65% of the country, and the remaining 35% belong to that enterprise. Therefore, the anticipated income for the company ho 21.9179 million euros; with 70% of the equity ratio calculation, the three share the love of rich revenues 1534.2538 million euros. In addition, excluding 33% of the corporate income tax factors, three Aifu the net proceeds of the implementation of CDM projects, will reach an annual average of nearly 10.2795 million euros. If the over production in 2007 is expected to be earnings per share growth of 0.34 yuan! More importantly, according to the Council of the United Nations CDM web site announcement, the company's subsidiaries Changshu 3 Ai Zhong Hao New Chemical Materials Co., Ltd., submitted HFC23 decomposition project, in June 7, 2006 due publicity by the governing CDM will be discussed in the ho still need to add that the company in 2002 and 2004 F22 production process of change and other issues, pending the UN CDM Board next month (July) again. That is, at present the company's CDM project has now entered the last stage of the project, once adopted, will receive the World Bank signed 4.25 billion yuan a huge purchase agreement, that was real money, but the good news in July! Unit is great room for imagination. Global capital markets, in the stir-solar theme Shares, protect the earth, protect human CDM concept is being favored by the big money, do not look at foreign CDM concept stock-fold, the recent G rose is a giant of the times of adversity example! (600636) G 3 love rich, July there will be exceptionally good to wait for the blue-chip growth stocks, holding a contract on the CDM in the first super-G giant of nearly three times the CDM concept stocks, in particular, is still in the bottom of the current stock price, more Investors should focus on bargain-hunting interest, please do not come out so good after the catch high.
� Warrant Analysis:
Baosteel Warrants expire on August 30, the due date five trading days will stop trading, less than two months ago, Vanke put warrants something like this. As of yesterday, the intrinsic value of Baosteel JTB1 only 0.22 yuan, but the price is still as high as 0.946 yuan, which means that G Baosteel less than 2 months in the next period rose 16.4% to be able to support this price. Although the prospects for iron and steel stocks, but the G Baosteel can in less than 2 months of time to achieve this or there are still uncertainties. As for the Vanke put warrants, because of their exercise price of 3.73 yuan and the G Vanke A price of 5.65 yuan yesterday, there are still a wide gap between the basic is a foregone conclusion due to become waste paper, although the stock market's rebound led to a rebound in warrants , but the warrants market as a whole will remain on the downward trend in shock. The risk of a real focus on the release of warrants in the Baosteel JTB1 and China Vanke HRP1 occurred before expiration. China Vanke HRP1 in Baosteel JTB1 and before the expiry of the warrant is still the risk of a concentrated release, it is likely it will happen in July. Baosteel and China Vanke warrants that time, the right of the line should be made of these two warrants bubble completely disappeared, the demonstration effect will be further forced to burst the bubble kept the body in other warrants.
å›? Operation element
Last week, petrochemical, banking, etc. The Awkwardness of Fund strong, the promotion of a continuous upward indexes play an active role, while non-ferrous, coastal-related stocks, agricultural stocks, engineering machinery and other hot spots turns active, the greater degree of mobilization of local speculation investors enthusiasm for the Bank of China listing next week, a smooth, thorough preparation work. With the daily news kicked off, the performance will be the effect on the price of structural adjustment important factor in blue-chip, low-earnings ratio, capital stock will be favored, steel and coal as the blue-chip group, the lowest price-earnings ratio of the two plates, short-, medium-active opportunity to larger.
